O.K. wedge has failed, now the top looks real...

Intermediate term charts look like a good rollover at the appropriate place..Today's high and close are plotted...$NDX bounced off of a trendline, and $SPX rolls over right at one of the .25 nodes..

Intraday bearish $NDX wedge...

The Fed reduction in interest rates allows for a 'pop' in prices and that could happen within this wedge and complete it...

waiting on the Fed...

Little of note happening, tomarrow should unshackle the markets....

McClellan Summation index

This is the McClellan Summation index applied to the $NYA...notice that we are approximately at a long term trendline(top dashed violet line)...This is a reasonably good top indicator in bear markets, but it is usually a bit early in Bull markets. I think there are plenty of other clues around that we are finishing off a top of some magnitude...

Another low volume day...

Like a few days ago we have a steep drop off in volume...The last event produced a small pullback, and then on to a slightly higher high...We'll see if this is the real thing now that we are at a .5000 node...

$NDX exponential trendlines as of this morning

We are very close to the .50000 node, we'll see if this terminates the rally from mid March somewhere over the next day or so...

Note it is customary but not mandatory for these trendlines to be exceeded slightly before a trend change can occur....

$NDX no longer a wedge, probably now a channel...

Off to Baylor University tomarrow...

I will be absent tomarrow, back Saturday..

Good Luck in the markets all...

Mark L.

Damn! a rally!

I don't like filling out charts in advance, but here's a scenario that might explain what's happening today...The .5000 node you see here is the 4/28/08-4/29/08 time period which is roughly a Bradley date...I thought it would be a bottom, not a top some time ago, and then concluded it wasn't going to happen...Now I see where it might fit...

This is a tough one...if it ends up being the scenerio above, or close, it was meant to be..if it stalls here, where there are no real exponential nodes or trendlines close, then it's manipulation as far as I can tell...

Gasoline continued..

Follow up Fibonnacci price levels for Unleaded Gasoline..top is real close...

energy continued...

You can see here that just as gasoline prices are topping, so is Exxon-Mobile. Old resistance is being hit and the stock is overbought. I get a confluence of nodes on this stock around 5/06/08 but it's possible it could break down before then.

One thing that will be hard on stocks in general from here out is that we are entering the unfavorable season for the stock market. "Sell in May and go away" is an old refrain, well, it's not long 'till May....

I believe we've topped on the major indexes but...

I'm holding off a little bit on the intraday stuff, until I'm absolutely sure..it's quite a bit of work even with computers, and I hate to do it over again which is what I would have to do if we made another marginal high in here somewhere..

energy markets

Here is unleaded gasoline, I computed the two charts from the swings shown in the regular chart...Gasoline is topping, and the 1.00 node in the first chart is ideally at 5/15/08 and the 1.5 node in the second chart is ideally at 4/21/08 (meaning of course we're past that date). So the top is in the neighborhood of from now to the next 3 weeks..

Actually given the AB=CD type Fibonacci math, you could argue that we've reached the top now, and the 4/21/08 date was the correct date and interpretation. Targets that are computed that way come out to 3.00 and 3.08 dollars a gallon, so as I say, we may be there..

Air pockets under the market..

One indication of tops is when RSI, MFI, and Ultimate Oscillator are at high values and Chaikin Money Flow is low or negative...Something to watch for...

Intraday time periods..

Since the top is now apparent, and behind us, I will restart the intraday time calculations shortly...

Regards,
Mark L.

What if they wanted to continue the rally, but nobody cared?

This the kind of volume signature you get in the neighborhood of tops...

The intermediate exponential trendline chart, particularly the left one, shows the price action just above the trendline. That's also usual before price action fails.

With the falling volume across all indexes today, I feel pretty confident we've either seen the top, or it is right at hand.

Chaikin Money Flow indicator

One of my favorite volume indicators is this one. Notice what happens when price and the Chaikin Money Flow diverge. Note that this indicator is not far from going negative...

Two normal (non-exponential) trendlines cross...

Notice that in the $SPX, the rally only came up to the intersection of:

(1) the line representing the general level of previous near term tops and...

(2) is touching (and retesting) the lower trendline of the wedge we recently broke down from.

(3) and remember we are at the upper (downward sloping) trendline of long term wedges (see previous posts, this is not shown on this particular chart...)

Given that the exponential work is also saying we are at trendline resistance of that kind (see the post below), and short term sentiment indicators are at extreme (euphoric) levels again, and volume wasn't too impressive... Well, draw your own conclusions...

Intermediate exponential trendline charts with final top values..

Not much different really, same explanations apply as in earlier post..I blew them up a bit for clarity..

The question for the $NDX, is does it stop around where it is now, or does it go on up to the next set of overhead trendlines, which on the middle and rightmost $NDX chart, looks to be around 1940-1950 or so....

new intraday time lines after top is in..

The new top resets the calculations...once that has been determined I'll have new timelines to post...

intermediate exponential trendline charts

The SPX trendline is just a hair past the .5000 node (the rightmost chart), but should still be relevant. The NDX chart (the left one) shows close trendline proximity..

$NDX at Fibonacci 38%, daily Bollinger Bands and trendline

After yesterdays clear negative divergences, this mornings action was somewhat surprising...nonetheless we are at the intersection of three resistances as stated in the title of this post...Put/Call ratios are now extremely low...A lot depends on whether they stay low throughout the day..

Which trendline will get hit first?

To my way of thinking, either the lower red trendline or the lower blue trendline is the next target. Really, probably red for now...

Hourly Divergences..

Looks very weak...

Divergences everywhere...

Seeing lots of negative divergences on intraday charts...Currently Google's blogger is having a technical problem, so I can't upload charts for a little while, but I would expect this market to fail.

Next intraday time lines...

At 1:00 P.M. eastern time, I will add potential time change lines to the charts I have on the Public section of Stockcharts. Both will be violet lines and will be added to the $NDX and $SPX charts...5>3 and C>A respectively... Watch for possible trend changes or acceleration of existing trends near 1:00 P.M....

Overall market health...

Note here another use for Logarithms....A smoothed plot of the inverse of daily new lows reveals a relation that often (not always) suggests tops. Not a good daily timing tool, but helps orient ourselves to reality when the Wall street hype is really high...

Volume on the Q's

Another warning...the last half hour of the market rise was on increasing volume, but it was mostly distribution...note the red volume bars on the 5 minute chart..

30 minute indicators -$NDX

Notice that we are almost touching an internal trendline, and there is negative divergence (though not a lot) with price. Put/call ratios are approaching levels seen at local tops, but not as extreme as I'd like, MACD histogram is showing negative divergence but has a little way to go before crossing over...Nevertheless, this is not a bullish chart.

$SPX - intermediate term charts

Many indexes are close to testing their highs of April 9th. Here is what they look like logarithmically from the October 2007 tops. You can see price has slightly exceeded trendlines on two of the charts (middle and right) and is approaching another one (left one). Also .5000 node on this scale, will hit tomorrow(chart on right). This is a bearish chartset..Next post we'll look at indicators, for possible confirmation...

Next intraday timelines...

Next intraday timelines are one on the $NDX and one on the $NYA. Both are at about 3:15 P.M. eastern time. They will show up as violet and blue, respectively..Watch for those to herald the possible breakdown of the rally, which has declining volume now with small incremental gains...The $NDX is just shy of it's 62% retrace of the April 7th high..

There's your rally..should be about over...

Has slightly exceeded a trendline at about a .5000 node (trend change time line). That usually finishes rallies...

Fascinating for it's obviousness...

Capital is credit, not money, and although modern economists blur the distinction, that does not make it so. In the belief, however, lies the consequence. We have acted as if credit is money and have, as a consequence, become collectively indebted into perpetuity. Why this has happened is obvious.

Who profits from debt?

Bankers

Who runs our economies?

Bankers

To understand modern economics, it is necessary to understand credit. Prior to credit-based paper money, credit did not play the same role as today. Now, however, credit and its cancerous twin, debt, are the very foundation of all modern economies.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article4323.html

________________________________________________________________________________________________

Also, a quote from 100 years ago that could possibly be applied to the visions of the Globalists of the last 2 or 3 decades...

"The plunge of civilization into this abyss of blood and darkness . . . is a thing that so gives away the whole long age during which we have supposed the world to be . . . gradually bettering."

- Henry James

Tuesday's market..What to watch for...

As I write this (after midnight eastern time) the futures are up slightly, consistent with yesterday being a mild bottom. The hourly markers to watch are around noon and 3:00 eastern time tomarrow as intraday there are two SPX time lines at 3:00 P.M. and a $NDX and $NYA time line at noon, and one time line at 10:45 A.M. for the $NDX. The $NDX tends to lead the other indexes sometimes, so that should be watched...This again is daytrader information, no really big moves or big changes in trend are expected here. After a modest bounce, which may not last more than a day or two, the downtrend should resume...

Mark L.

Monday's market...

Today may have formed a minor bottom, the daily chart shows Williams extremely oversold (consistent with some kind of bottom) and MACD looks at the point of a bearish crossover, while volatility is low, consistent with tops..

Intraday, the bottom may well have happened coincident with the green time line slated for 10:00 A.M.. The low of the day was actually at 9:43 A.M. for the $NDX. I see positive divergence on many of the indexes intraday. The 1:00 - 1:15 P.M. period coincided with an unimportant intraday top...

I don't expect the bounce from here to amount to much...looking at the trendline chart, it recently respected the yellow line on a previous bounce, might do the same here, putting a target just above 1340 but probably not 1350...

Monday's intraday time nodes

Here they are:

$SPX 1/4 Ave. (green) 1:15 P.M. from wave C=>sub A
1/2 1.272 (blue) 2:15 P.M. from wave C=>A

$NYA 1/4 Ave. (green) 11:00 A.M. from wave 5=>1
1/2 Ave. (green) 1:00 P.M. from wave 5=>3

$NDX 1/4 Ave. (green) 10:00 A.M. from wave 5=>1
1/2 1.272 (blue) 11:45 A.M. from wave 5=>3

These will be the potential time lines I will be posting on the charts in the public space on Stockcharts as time passes on Monday. $nya and $spx have some potential change times that are 15 minutes apart (1:00 P.M. and 1:15 P.M., respectively) and that always gets my attention, but a bottom could form in the markets anywhere from 10:00 A.M. to 2:15 P.M. Remember, this is a short term bottom, the real big bottom should be in the 4/28 or 4/29 time period. Position traders can probably ignore this one today, but people with more of a day trading orientation might play this much smaller one...

We'll see what happens...

If you are watching the charts I have posted on Stockcharts, updating live, and I get these lines posted quickly enough, you should see MACD on the 15 minute charts define the bottom by sharply turning in the vicinity, time wise, of one of these times posted above. perhaps it will be the 1:00 to 1:15 PM. cluster noted above... Watch the other indicators, as well, on those charts, most should also confirm the change...

Mark L.

P.S. the labeling at the top of this post that shows things like "wave 5=>3" just means that the potential trend change "time lines" noted on this chart were the result of mathematics applied against the interaction of wave 5 and wave 1 as I have labeled them on the appropriate live chart on Stockchart's public charts...

A very compelling article...

Thomas Jefferson speaks to us...

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article4110.html


"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, (i.e., the "business cycle") the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. " Thomas Jefferson, President of the United States 1801-1809

Volume failure, right shoulder completing

While the $NDX bumps around the 62% retrace level, the Transports ($TRAN) barely is managing the 38% retrace after it's over 3% drubbing yesterday...

Is Market Watch widget a good idea or a bad idea?

Let me know what you think, I can't decide whether to leave the new market watch widget on here or not, it might be distracting..I'll check the postings and emails I get, to see what the consensus is.. By the way, if you click on the symbols, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 inside of the widget, it brings up a little intraday chart of the index in question..... Data is updated every 15 seconds....

Thanks,
Mark L.

Similar wedge on $SPX...

I have just run a linear regression on the two normal (as opposed to exponential) trendlines on this SPX chart. The data points I used as are as follows:

For the top line...

10/11/07 1576.090
10/31/07 1552.760
12/11/07 1523.570
12/26/07 1498.850
04/07/08 1386.740

For the bottom line...

08/16/07 1370.600
01/23/08 1270.050
03/17/08 1256.980

The linear extrapolation gives a crossover date of 2/02/09 at a target price of 1071.

That is not, of course, when and where it will end up, as wedges usually break well before their apex. The recent upward wedge that we are falling from now, was a rare bird, as it went all the way to the apex before breaking out (down). The normal breakout is in the vicinity of 38% from the end....

I will do the same math on the $ndx and "back" post it to the previous $ndx chart.

Long term "regular" view of $NDX

So my view is, short to intermediate term, we fall, hit another bottom and in a general way make our way towards the end of this big wedge, and out there somewhere, break out of the pinch effect of the wedge and produce a respectable rally, probably bigger than the one just completed. When that will happen is speculation at this point, but the parameters of this wedge gives us some intuition on this, and we can follow it as it develops....

On a side note, notice the "fast volatility" indicator is at an extreme(low), usually a good indicator of tops when Stochastics is also high...

The crossover date of the two downward sloping trendlines is at 9/02/08 at 1556. Read the caveats on the post above...

It looks like the $SPX trendlines determined the top here...

Notice on the charts in the post below, the $spx trendlines seemed the most instrumental in turning the markets, on this just past, Bradley date. This makes sense as that's where the broken banking sector resides...Although I do see one $ndx chart that shows a pretty good, classic trendline failure...(the "upper left" one)

It's worth noting also that the bottom clusters of three charts on the $spx and $ndx did a better job of calling bottoms so far, and the top clusters of three charts for each index has done much better showing tops. The overall impression I get from examining these is that we may be a bit range bound for a while, and the next bottoms may be in the general vicinity of the ones we've seen already over the last couple of months.

That's just an impression, don't take it as Gospel, but it makes sense, particularly if you look at the bottom sequence of $spx charts...the lower trendlines are acting like hard surfaces, restricting the range of the bottoms....

Intermediate Term Exponential Trendlines

Today is the Bradley turn date..

Today is the Bradley turn date I mentioned late last week. $Trin is at .56 and by some of my math, we are at a .5000 node..we're also at resistance on many indexes.. and at the apex of a wedge...

Not good to be long here....

Current look of $NDX wedge...

Bradley date coming up...

I suspect that 4/7/08, the Bradley date, will work out to be a major top, which may have been today in fact, or tomorrow...For those of you unfamiliar with Bradley dates, go to the Amanita link on my site....

$SPX trendline from intermediate swing..

Here also you see very little change from yesterday, price action bouncing around and just under the trendlines on the left and far right charts...This situation is most predictable by conventional indicators and their divergences at this point, although the longer the price action lingers under the trendlines the more likely it is to fail and head down...

$NDX trendline charts from latest (short duration, recent) swing..

Looking at the price performance in relation to the trendlines from the most recent swing, you can make arguments for going lower or higher, really....but the 30 minute charts have some pretty fair negative divergences...

Today's rally likely to fail...

Although nothings sure in this business, today's little rally looks destined to fail based on volume relationships as seen in this chart...

Correlate normal price chart in the earlier post below, with this one...

The 0.00000 point on the lower left is the bottom on March 17th at 1668.57, as shown in the earlier post.
The rest should be intuitively obvious.
Here you see the price action plotted up until about noon Central Standard Time..This exponential chart show a trendline failure and an exponential trendline crossover (dark brown and yellow trendlines), which often (not always) portends trend change. However with a wedge in progress, this could have higher significance than normal...

Watch the wedge...

Watch as it breaks down from it's upper trendine, if it goes below the lower blue trendline, then the rally's over, if it bounces, then it has a bit more upside to go..

What I'm seeing using intermediate time length setups....

The very first, conventional chart shows the Segments in the $SPX and $NDX used to compute the setups for the four Exponential chart clusters that follow. Here you can see what I see.. Here there are six charts each, of the $NDX and $SPX, covering the time span from the tops on both indexes in October 2007 to the present...

Notice that $SPX charts show the greatest indications of a potential pullback with at least two and possibly three of the six $SPX charts showing price action touching or slightly exceeding one of the Exponential trendlines (at the right edge of the charts, which of course, is _now_ )...$NDX does show the current high at a .50000 node on one of the charts and $SPX shows price action at or near a .2500 node.
These are all based on yesterday's closing prices..
Collectively these suggest a pullback..and on the $NDX on a chart from yesterday, you can see we have reached the 38% Fibonacci retracement, which also suggests this is a turn period of some scale for the market...