Wednesday, April 9, 2008

Similar wedge on $SPX...



I have just run a linear regression on the two normal (as opposed to exponential) trendlines on this SPX chart. The data points I used as are as follows:

For the top line...

10/11/07 1576.090
10/31/07 1552.760
12/11/07 1523.570
12/26/07 1498.850
04/07/08 1386.740

For the bottom line...

08/16/07 1370.600
01/23/08 1270.050
03/17/08 1256.980

The linear extrapolation gives a crossover date of 2/02/09 at a target price of 1071.

That is not, of course, when and where it will end up, as wedges usually break well before their apex. The recent upward wedge that we are falling from now, was a rare bird, as it went all the way to the apex before breaking out (down). The normal breakout is in the vicinity of 38% from the end....

I will do the same math on the $ndx and "back" post it to the previous $ndx chart.
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6 comments:

  1. johnApril 9, 2008 at 10:40 AM

    Mark,

    Hello, and thanx


    old john

    ReplyDelete
  2. lagscrewApril 9, 2008 at 11:36 AM

    Hi Mark

    Sold 2/3 of shorts a few min ago

    ReplyDelete
  3. mlytleApril 9, 2008 at 1:21 PM

    Lag, you must be playing real short time horizons..From a daily point of view, it looks like we could be going down for quite a few days, although on a intraday level it does look like some sort of bottom here...

    Regards,
    Mark L.

    ReplyDelete
  4. cezarfiApril 9, 2008 at 2:04 PM

    Hi Mark,
    I´ve started out with Boris blog. Nowdays I check out yours as well several times per day. You see this downturn continue for a few more days.
    Do you think we will tuch support around 1250? How soon?
    Thanks &rgrds
    Istvan

    ReplyDelete
  5. mlytleApril 9, 2008 at 2:19 PM

    Hi cezarfi,
    Yes I see us heading back near the previous bottoms..I am working on the projections for that, as the wedge shown in "normal" time (rather than exponential) will let us hit a lower low than before, but not by a lot...

    Regards,
    Mark L.

    ReplyDelete
  6. young grasshopperApril 9, 2008 at 3:00 PM

    Hi Mark,

    Thank you.

    Hopper

    ReplyDelete

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