Longer range view of $RUT trendline in previous post..

$SPX and $RUT struggle with trendlines...

On both, you can see that today (so far), the span between the highs and lows has narrowed...

PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS says good-bye...

Truth Has Fallen and Taken Liberty With It

http://www.counterpunch.org/roberts03242010.html

Some one or some thing has gotten to him...He was outspoken for years...

KUHNER: Will America break up?

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/mar/25/will-america-break-up/

Sultans of Swap - Act 3

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/gtlong/2010/0326.html

Max Keiser report...

http://ia331224.us.archive.org/2/items/MaxKeiserRadio-TheTruthAboutMarkets-27March2010/tam270310.mp3


Want to know the future?...listen to Max's report...No one can see ahead like this guy....I'm serious....

Playing with exponential trendlines...

You might note the long range $SPX trendline chart about 3 or 4 posts back. The downward sloping trendline on that chart that is magenta colored, I have plotted on a small graph with the recent trendline from the MicrotrendlineSPX chart..Those of you who follow me regularly will be familiar with the charts I am referencing...Anyway, with the highs and lows of the $SPX added, you can see how this index is reacting near the point of the crossover of the very long term based exponential trendline with the microtrendline from the 2007-2002 decline. All data is up to date as of 4:00 P.M. today (Friday). The bumpiness of the trendlines is caused mostly by weekends where the previous Friday's data is reposted on Saturday and Sunday....

Yelnick - Did ObamaCare Spook the Bond Market?

http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2010/03/did-obamacare-spook-the-bond-market.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+PlanetYelnick+%28Planet+Yelnick%29

also:

Mish Shedlock - Treasury Yields rise; What's Cooking?

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

Some experimental work by Hopper...

One of my new oscillators is the pdf that is attached. It looks at differences in RSI of MFI.
It doesn't seem to work well as a trading tool, but looking at this picture, one can spot a new high recently...
This could infer a breakout of a new trend.
So, yes I am shorting now, but that is only for a short to intermediate term.
The longer term may be more up...

Cheers,
Hopper

Long range trendlines on the $SPX...

More signs of resistance...

An unexpected result...

A while back, I published this chart before we had a breakout of the symmetrical triangle. I was expecting the triangle to break out to the upside, as I presumed that Britain was in more trouble than the U.S. This chart almost suggests the opposite...

Then today I found this:

U.S. Is Riskier Than Euro Zone; So Says CDS Market

link:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703312504575142112712294450.html?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines


The article is warning that something deep is being revealed, that we need to be wary now..

Both the article and the chart are in agreement that something is going really rotten in the state of Denmark, er..the U.S., rather...

One step toward the end of the Bull run...

Now we need a decline below the Microtrendlines by a percent or so...and it's soup...

MicroTrendline Charts

Bears, keep your powder dry, don't pull the trigger on too many short positions until price action ducks back below these lines...The December 28th, double nodes took 13 trading days to resolve into a top on 1/15/10, the 3/11/10 nodes could take almost as long, so patience is required...

So, Who Is spinning - Boris Chikvashvili

http://borisc.blogspot.com/2010/03/so-who-is-spinning.html

Showdown in Europe

This is an excellent analysis by Boris Chikvashvili, who has a very interesting and successful market analysis method of his own. You should all check out his site:

http://borisc.blogspot.com/

By the way, he sees an immanent drop here also..

Slight rally in the markets today...

Only the $NDX made a marginal new high, all of the other indexes failed to do that, most appear to have been rolling over near the close...

The $SPX stayed under it's trendline and showed negative divergence implying further weakness. The $NDX today bounced off of it's trendline, but showed weakness into the close. The general trend of advance-declines is of increasing weakness as charted here yesterday...so we will see what happens tomorrow...

Underlying weakness in equities markets suggests little upside from here...

Note the vertical red lines where the two exponential nodes presaged declines in the Nasdaq 100 McClellan Oscillator (symbol: $NAMO). This wasn't planned, but the nodes line up well with two recent peaks in this indicator.

Note that the MACD crossover of the 'zero line' of the McClellan Oscillator (at the top of the chart) often corresponded with peaks in the $NDX. I have highlighted some of these events with vertical magenta, dashed lines. Looking at the current MACD, a similar crossover should occur early next week.

I do see the MACD of hourly market action does suggest a bounce on Monday. However the Advance/Declines ratio, smoothed by a 40 day moving average (core process in computing the McClellan Oscillator) is showing that the underlying strength in the markets is ebbing away, quickly. Therefore the bounce should be contained by existing exponential trendlines, as they have been in the recent past:

Just to add, the McClellan Oscillator for the $NYSE (symbol: $NYMO) is showing the same pattern...

It Was a Wonderful Life.- James Quinn

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article18000.html

We had the choice between Bedford Falls and Pottersville.
We chose Pottersville....- Quinn

A beautiful article- it appeals to the heart as much as it does to the mind...

Sultans of Swap - ACT II - The Sting!

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/gtlong/2010/0319.html

A lot of meat here....

Market had a reasonable decline today...

On which ever day, that the $NDX goes below it's exponential trendline, we will have a sell signal...A better and safer one will be when we go about as far below that trendline as we shot above it...When that happens I will report it here that evening...

That will probably be early next week...



Can you spot all of the factors above, that makes a 'top' probable here? (Click on the chart to enlarge)

The 'green mountains' on this chart, are a price-volume oscillator (CMF). When it diverges rapidly with price action, it's a good tool for timing...

Microtrendline charts updated below...

http://marketmathematics.blogspot.com/2010/03/microtrendlines-updated-1000-am-cst.html

Market Risk high again..

http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2010/03/2007-redux.html

Quote from above link:

The market value of the high yield FINRA-BLP Active U.S. Corporate Bond Index relative to its investment grade counterpart has now exceeded the level seen in May 2007, at the peak of the credit bubble.

If you ask me, it looks like risk-taking is back with a vengeance.

Current Put_Call ratios, 10 day moving average

These values are now more extreme then they were in late 2007...

What will a sell signal be for the markets?

You can see that the $SPX (top chart) has already risen above and fallen below it's exponential trendline...The $NDX needs to do the same (that is, fall below the line), then you have a 'sell' signal overall...

To be really safe you would like to see some real volume associated with the selling, and a good entry point (for a short fund) might be when the $NDX goes as far below the line as it went above it. Currently, that would mean waiting until it fell below the bottom on Monday, below 1900 or so...

Look at the Microtrendline charts below (a couple of posts back)..they have been updated

The $SPX is starting to hit it's old exponential support from underneath...This is technically interesting because, this is a first documented occurrence using exponential trendlines...

This is important, because in conventional technical analysis, this usually stops the rally from the first important decline from reaffirming the prior Bull trend...get my drift?

We'll see if it works the same way in this situation...

Lately, call buying leads major tops by a few days...

Notice also the 'green mountains' of the CMF price volume oscillator...one of my favorite indicators...

Clickcharts view of the markets...

This is based on their algorithm of price and volume, green means buy, and red means sell or sell short...
The top one uses an ETF (IWM) to simulate the Russell 2000...

I note the Fed was in there playing and pumping (I'm sure) today...I doubt that will change the final outcome...

Microtrendlines updated @ 10:00 P.M. CST, 3/18/10

$NDX Microtrendlines for 3/15/10...

Top is probably in... (3/12/10)

I do comparisons of node strike dates on waves as they are forming, and using the data from the November and March lows, you can run exponential nodes from different wave series and see what dates are in common.

Two different wave counts for the rally in the $NDX gives you these dates (click to enlarge):


For the comparison between The $RUT and $INDU you get this:



Without showing you all of these (it's a bit tedious) , 3/12/10 showed up on most of them. This includes comparisons of the $SPX against the $INDU (Dow) and against the $TRAN (transportation index) , $NDX, and the $RUT....

This made a lot of sense given the double node warning on 3/11/10, taken from a much larger time scale, on the $NDX.

Did I do this analysis for the January high? No. The Christmas to NewYears's period has so much emotion associated with it, that it probably wouldn't have worked for a 'fine tuning' of date targets, which is what these spreadsheets represent...

Other large negative divergences in the $SPX...

The $NDX also shows these...

U.S. Heading for Hyperinflationary Collapse, Ruling Elite Preparing for Civil War

By James Quinn at http://www.theburningplatform.com/
The need for the tough spirit of the cowboy in the face of the weasels in government..Quinn has a winner in this article...

Article is here:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article16560.html

Great integration of economics, history, and an analysis of popular culture... Must read....

The silver/gold ratio and it's relationship to the equities markets...

You can just smell a whiff of deflation coming....

Weekly put_call ratios, 2 and 4 week moving averages

Market is looking toppy, yes?

The top chart uses simple moving averages, the bottom chart uses exponential moving averages

IWM - Proxy ETF for the Russell 2000...

Notice in this chart, that the price action has exceeded the weekly Bollinger Bands...This is not that common of an event on the upside, usually happens on bottoms...The daily RSI is a real serious 76.57, which is an extremely overbought reading, and with our double node warning just yesterday...well, if this isn't a rapid reversal target, I don't know what is...

$SPX just about reaches normal Fibonacci target...

No need to post a chart for this, but if the rise off of the February 5th low is a normal zig-zag where the price span of 'C' equals the price span of 'A', the calculation looks like this:

1086.02 + (1112.42 - 1044.50) equals=> 1153.94

The high today in the $SPX was 1153.41...

SULTANS OF SWAP: Smoking Guns & the Sting!- Gordon T Long

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article17839.html


Must read, a bit long, but does justice to the subject matter...
How it all works, based on the movie 'The Sting'.

Some lesser nodes on the DJIA also align about now...

Jim Willie - Distress Signals On Financial Crisis Watch

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article17803.html

Entropy - Why the World as We Know It Is Dying

http://www.safehaven.com/article-16044.htm

Micro trendlines as of Noon, Central Time on 03/09/2010...

As we get closer in time to the $NDX double node around the 11th of March, we are also starting to tangle with the old trendlines...

Voluntary research...

This is a reminder to all that may have an interest in meeting up with some of the other folks who visit this blog, to research stock market techniques loosely based on some of what I present here, that we're holding the door open a little longer...I have one commitment and one tentative, I would like to see one more solid volunteer, before I would start this thing..
It's meant to be low committment, as I know you all have lives..so it won't hurt you, honest :}

Send me an email at mlytle0@sbcglobal.net if your interested...

Larry Edelson - Another Peek Into The Future

http://www.howestreet.com/articles/index.php?article_id=12713

Agrees nicely with my work...claims top is close based on cycles...

Russell 2000 has close, but not overlapping, major nodes...

The double $NDX node falls on the 11th of March, the two nodes shown on this chart are 3/9/09 for the red 1.00 node line, and 3/23/10 for the blue 1.00 node line. Obviously the $NDX double node fits between the red and blue lines on this chart....A lot of reinforcement for a relatively small time span...

An interesting and creative sentiment indicator....

http://www.safehaven.com/article-16010.htm

I found this link worth reading...

Supporting sentiment info for previous post.

Notice that in the lower chart, that the Williams Oscillator smooths the Put/Call ratio stuff enough to be somewhat indicative of what's going on...but a lot of misses...
That said, I think we're making a double top on a lot of indexes...

Next double node due on March 11, 2010

Probably will end the rally once and for all...Creates a double top formation...

The last one took two and a half weeks to take effect, this could do the same, but I would think by the end of this month, this market should be declining...

Some sentiment info:

Stuck in the same old trendlines..

The Axis of Greed, The Nature and Structure of the Economic Elite

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article17569.html

Interesting organizational charts....

Bloom energy

Most of you by now have probably heard of the Bloom energy server. This is truly a breakthrough.

Here is a link that gives a little background on it:

http://blog.mapawatt.com/2010/02/24/what-is-a-bloom-energy-server-how-does-it-work/

This is an absolute game changer....Electrical utilities will mostly hate it..

Who are the Kings? What do they do?

It's becoming widely known that there are quite a few billionaires in the western world, but their activities and connections are not understood. In the light of the dawning awareness that the actions of this exclusive club is not necessarily benign to the rest of us, a group of people have formed a kind of social networking site to illuminate the illuminati. (I don't really like that term, but I couldn't resist the pun.) Anyway, thanks to a tip I found on Max Keiser's site, here is a new group of detectives out to expose the financial elites.

Their site is here:

http://littlesis.org/

You can, if you have the time, join and participate. It's an act that can change the world. (maybe)

Crashing Towards a New World Social Order 2012

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article17568.html

There are times when I'm glad I'm not 20 years old....

A look at two ETF's...

Of course, everyone out there is expecting a new Bull market...Note the red arrows, denoting Negative divergence between price action and the Chaiken Money Flow indicator.