Bitcoin may have established a channel, if it maintains it, it will be back at it's old high by the fall of 2016.

Where we are, and where we're going. Expect a 60% correction over the next 5 years.

Notice the HUGE A-B-C Pattern, where A=C.

For now a linear trendline of the $SPX will work almost as well as the exponentially derived one in terms of fitting the data. But later they will diverge as markets don't follow straight lines as much as you're led to believe..

Probably won't post too much from now 'till right after the New Year, though I am working on a new Fibonacci program, and will be testing it over the holidays.

At this point, you don't need to be a market technician to see the top is in...

Serious $SPX divergence. You can bet today's action will not be enough to alleviate this.

What a Elliott Wave Zig Zag looks like on a 'normal' chart versus an exponential spreadsheet plot.

One, you know you have a support trendline, and one you don't...(click on images to enlarge)

This is a chart of Libor rates (interbank lending rates) superimposed on the S&P 500 chart. Something in the background is blowing up, big time. Liquidity is disappearing..

Did you feel the earth move? It recently has. The dollar is starting to crash, behind the scenes junk bonds are blowing up, Bitcoin is on fire and even moribund precious metals are starting to shine. We have just passed a major INFLECTION POINT.

There is an ETF of the Eurostoxx 50 index, that is making an interesting, albeit sloppy exponential channel right now.

This isn't apparent on 'normal' charts. It's approaching a 1.0 node and overhead resistance. We'll see what happens, it either rolls over here, or goes on to a new high in late January.

Found some tabular data for the Baltic Dry Index. Looks like these maths will work for this too, but I didn't get enough data to draw a lot of conclusions. Interesting though...

The Dollar dumped yesterday, as the charts said they would...

Compare this chart to the one posted on November 30th, you can see the decline has started.

Recent rise in Bitcoin was really a long term breakout from an old trendline.

Notice the downsloping magenta trendline, and the times it was respected..and then the pop above it recently..

Bitcoin update. Notice the structural similarity between this and the Dollar Index (Previous post). As Bitcoin declined from a high formed at the juncture of two nodes, so we might expect the Dollar to do the same. Bitcoin is recovering nicely, the Dollar probably won't.

Notice the results from two different studies, the recent spike in Bitcoin prices correspond to a .75 and .125 (1/8th) nodes. For the unintiated, nodes come as factors of '2' of two series, 1.5, .75, .375, etc. being one series and 2, 1, .5, .25, .125. etc., being the other.

Dollar Index Update

Dollar has busted out of a small wedge but is up against a couple more resistance lines at or near either a .500 (third pic.) or 1.00 node (fourth pic.). Could stall or reverse right here. The first image is hardest to reconcile with the others, but it is the shortest time scale pictured. Regular chart, breakout is the little curl to the upper right, the wedge can also be seen, but it looks elongated within the narrowing Bollinger Bands.

With Housing going soft, these charts say Lumber production should start to fall immanently. Yes, these maths will work on production output data, not just prices!

Note the nodes now being reached, .500 on earlier format (with a trendline crossover, another indication of change, lower chart), and on a different study, -1.0 on the newer format (upper chart). The reason this works for production data, is because raising or lowering production is an economic decision, not unlike buying or selling a security.

All previous trendlines on recent charts for precious metals, and the $SPX are holding. That is, using XAU as my PM index, that bottom is holding and the top long term trendline on the $SPX is still capping any further advance.

If anyone has an interest in an analysis, point me to a dataset, and I'll consider doing it. Most of the markets haven't progressed enough in any specic direction to make recharting them worthwhile at this time.

Market action for the last few days has been somewhat ambiguous. Certainly the powers that be are trying to keep the markets up, even as they bring societies down. Surprising that they can't understand that you really can't get away with that.

Here's what stopped the waterfall decline in August. This supporting trendine will need to be breached for a bear market to truly begin.

The important dates that mathematically created this trendline are: 10/10/02 (major bottom) 3/5/04 (intermediate top) 10/11/07 (major top) Closer view:

Hyperinflation? Not likely.

You know, one thing I think won’t happen, is ‘all of those printed dollars coming back home’. Right now there are oversupplies of just about everything, and that will get worse in the coming months. The real crisis is about central banks creating artificial demand for several decades because the underlying technological paradigm has been rendering workers increasingly redundant. So you create bubbles in stocks or real estate to provide some additional economic activity. Or, bubbles in subprime, nonperforming car loans or subprime nonperforming educations. End result, we now have way to much real estate, too many cars, too many grads, too much junk bought on credit. What we don’t have, is a way to allocate consumption, as the link between REAL jobs and consumption is broken. People consume because the government is trying to keep all of those supply chains working, so they print or borrow capital to hand to the people in order to keep the delicate and complex production machinery working, which has nothing to do with keeping people alive, that’s just a (politically expedient) byproduct. Now that the true deflationary impact of technology can no longer be held back, those supply chains are indeed starting to crack. First goes the retailers, like Macy’s, Sears, etc. and even, yes, McDonalds. We are seeing it also at the other end of the manufacturing sequence, way upstream, in the collapse of mining, coal, oil, industrial metals, lumber. In between, manufacturers are feeling it too, Catapillar, being a bell whether stock, is going down. The whole industrial system is ‘deflating’, as aggregate demand collapses. People without real jobs and real incomes, just don’t have the purchasing power to maintain the system’s liquidity and continued operation. The cause, being the curse of manufacturing efficiency with labor disenfranchisement. So, countries that are holding treasuries and want to unload them face the uncomfortable fact that it’s hard to know what piece of real estate, what industrial property, what patent, whatever, will have any ‘income value’ in a structural, global, deflationary collapse. Though the Chinese have already unloaded a bunch of these to buy properties around the world, expect the pace of redemptions to slow dramatically as the outlines of the collapse become clearer. There is a better than even chance that almost all current possible investments from here on out will be under performing or non-performing for years, maybe decades. This means to me, that many of the U.S. Treasuries that are held by nations, at some point will be left unused, or when thought of as ‘money’, left unspent. Many will expire worthless at some point, as no one will have been able to figure out what a real asset was, over the time period they were still viable. That time period being, while the U.S. Government that printed and maintained them, still existed.

Why I created these mathematics, and this blog...

The attempt here is to find relationships, even in manipulated markets, that are so strong and inviolate that even the manipulators can't escape them. My belief is, the longer the pattern persists in time, the more difficult to change it. But that pattern must be embedded, and not in any way obvious. It has to have an unalterable psychological aspect, and be described by discoverable mathematics. This is what I've claimed to have done.

$SPX longterm trendlines holding, another down day today. Tonight's weekly chart doesn't show the new downtrend but next Monday's chart probably will.

Bitcoin's rise is just beginning. But here is why it stalled here, for now. It hit both a node (.75 or -1.0 depending on display choices), and an overhead trendline.

The '1.5' node on one chart and '0.0' node on the other (not shown, graph doesn't go out that far) both represent the same point in time (well into the future), as do the '.75' and '-1.0', where we are now. This rise should get out to a 1.0 or 1.5 node (middle chart) before it's all over and that's pretty far out in time. One caveat though, if governments start abolishing cash, they'll shut this down too. Watch for that, could really end the party early.

Long term trendlines being tested.

I have an e-book out now for Apple and android devices from Smashbooks.

I'm only charging $0.99 for it. Has all the basic equations. It's been out before as a .pdf, the title is: "Elliott Wave Timing Beyond Ordinary Fibonacci Methods". Tried to think of a catchier title, but wanted to describe what it was. Couldn't figure out how to satisfy both needs. :}

Thought I should mention this.

I firmly believe that the charts I provide are for mostly academic interest. Use the information at your own risk. I now think we are in a trading environment where even if you are right, the game is still rigged against you. Wall Street is run by the shrewdest thieves in history, and they will be the undoing of all that is good in the world. So I see my charts as a set of warnings about specific traps, not so much as endorsements for one position or another.

Finally, I now have completed some charts relative to the Dollar Index. I used Federal Reserve data for this series.

From top to bottom we are going from shorter time spans with less 'authority' to longer spans which have more. Studying these. you can see the current value of the Dollar Index relative to other currencies is at a confluence of nodes and overhead resistance. The second chart down from the top shows a 'pincer movement with a 'triangle' or 'wedge' forming between them. With bearish fundamentals and much overhead resistance, one might reasonably expect this index to break down, rather than up. That would be my guess. The current Financial news is grim, with rumours of a budget 'accident' around November 3 or 5th, according to Jack Lew. There are also wars and rumours of wars, with danger of engagement of Russian and American Forces near Syria. Then there's the curious docking of three Chinese Navy vessels in Florida at a time of Heightened tensions between China and the U.S. Very strange to say the least. Suspect by the end of November everything will be clearer. Not better perhaps, but clearer. If you are curious about what important pivot dates were used to calculate these graphs, just left, and then right click on each one and start to save them to your hard drive. Those dates are embedded in the .jpeg file name for each image. If for some reason we get through the next couple of months with nothing of importance happening to the dollar index,the next cluster of nodes of importance will be in the summer of next year. The dollar starts to break down either sometime pretty close, or next summer, looks to me.

All the smaller trendlines/nodes now exceeded, looks like a retest of the old long term trendline coming up.

Dollar index work is coming, but life got in the way this week. The $Spx index climbed past the mid October dates,and now on larger scale charts are hitting bigger nodes. Now at a .125 node on a charts with origins on 3/6_09.

Next posts will be an analysis of the Dollar Index. We'll see what we get. This chart is the starting point, the raw data.

Trivia: Today is the day that Marty McFly arrived in the future from the movie “Back to the Future”, 10/21/2015 from 10/21/1985. Where’s our fusion powered cars?

Crude Oil Charts WTI. Some sort of an inflection point here. but bouncing on trendlines. The 1.0 and 1.5 nodes (lower level nodes) are being reached now. Some chance the price could pop below the trendlines they are resting on.

$Spx through yesterday. Scraping along upper regression (trend) lines. No bull market visible here.

Precious Metals bottoming here. Looks like a long term bottom. All charts on all time scales hitting the '0' or '-1' nodes. Meaning the end of a big move, usually capitulation.