Structure completing...

This wedge is completing, but don't be surprised if you get an "overthrow" tomarrow..Bearish wedges often breakout upside a little bit more before they break down...

Nonetheless, this pattern suggests the overall bearishness of the market is quite intact in spite of today's wild rally....

Afternoon update:Fibonacci 38% retrace reached, next trendline struck...

$TRIN is now quite low, under .6 and after a wild rally driven mostly by end of month and end of quarter adjustments, I suspect this rally has finally finished...

Hitting upper trendline, and overbought....

Also Bullish sentiment is hitting euphoric levels..remember there is a bullish bias in the first two days of a month, but that doesn't make this a bull market...

Truthfully, I would be happier if we were also at a major time node (see my tutorials) that would truly give a bearish reversal..but having both of the indexes, $NDX and $SPX hitting upper trendlines is a fairly good show-stopper...

A little rally today, as predicted, but doesn't change anything...

The technical conditions that allowed me to see today's rally last Friday also doesn't give it longevity. There is also a bullish bias to the last day of a month, and sometimes to the first two days of a new month, so we could stall for a day or two here, but the market is still in deep trouble, so I don't think longs will be rewarded....

Another Bearish chart....the Transports..

This index is used for Dow Theory Analysis..It's now rolling over...

Read the comments on the chart, there are three separate bearish principles at work here...

Monday will be a repeat of today....

We are short term oversold and nearing the Fibonacci 62% retrace of the lows on the 20th (on the $NDX) so an unimportant bounce is likely Monday, followed by more declines. Next week will be a good one for the bears...

Where we are now...(10:00 A.M. central time)

We have been stopped in this mornings rally by the trendline on the chart above, and resting over the trendline shown in the bottom chart. That offers resistance (at 1787.09, to be exact) but I see nothing that says it won't be broken, i.e. the downtrend continues...

Another featured site...

I've added Itulip.com to my links area...Some great information and insights there...Here's the link:

http://www.itulip.com/

Certainly not a boring site!

Market sags as expected..

The markets broke down through their intraday trendlines to confirm a bias towards weakness. They are short term oversold however so a small bounce tomarrow is possible before they resume their downward path...

On a different note, here is an article worth reading:

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2008/0327.html

Jim Willie is a frequent guest author on financialsense.com and has here outlined the smoke and mirrors job that is being pulled on us in the U.S...Great read if you really want to know what's going on, past the spin of the corporate media...

A market in trouble....

Here's a classic snapshot of a trend failing on volume as it rises through it's Bollinger Band range, also with a wedge structure. It doesn't get much more Bearish then that...

This rally looks like it's over

In spite of the historical levels of "oversoldness" on several indicators we have seen over the last couple of weeks, the chart patterns are saying that this rally isn't the real McCoy, and is out of steam...I'm taking a small short position here, if the market moves down further I'll add to this position...

Possible channel on $SPX, also signs of a wedge as on other charts...

A little known indicator on Bigcharts, also a small wedge forming?

You can see on this chart by the vertical blue lines I have drawn, that when the fast volatility line is at a relative low when Slow Stochastics is relatively high, tops often form. Note also the wedgelike appearance of the last few days, outlined in black.

On the upper chart, you can see the same wedge forming on the $NDX 15minute chart...

Seeing Negative divergences on 15 and 30 minute charts

Although it isn't proof of anything, I'm seeing quite a bit of negative divergence on the major Indexes. Seems like they should start to correct soon. We'll see....

Well, O.K., a little higher then...

Market shows strength and heads up to next trendline...this one is at 1817.03 and price action moved just above it...Let's see if this holds so we can get a small correction for a good entry...not generally good to buy the market when it's short term overbought...

Temporary top probably reached

Indicators also quite overbought...Today's trendline at 1809.98...Fibonacci A=B projection at 1815.85...

uptrend officially established

We now have a higher low and a higher high, intraday, so uptrend is real..Market is also becoming overbought so some sort of pullback is likely soon....

Market off for Good Friday

My last post for yesterday forgot to look at the calendar, obviously, the markets are closed today for Good Friday...

End of Day, 03/20/08

The markets looks like their getting ready for more upside, even though the price action is at the $SPX trendline and just above the current $NDX trendline. Short term they are getting slightly overbought and a pullback is possible, but the next bottom will probably be a great buying opportunity (but buy cautiously and in small increments, please!) and ...Tomorrow was the first serious date I had for the start of the up move anyway, although Fed actions may have caused the low to occur sooner (the 17th) and higher than analysis indicated.
I have several breadth indicators that are rather unambiguously saying the bottom is in on the macro scale, it's just a matter of picking your entry point and stops. As I have said some sort of pullback on this incipient wave up may occur sometime Monday, although at this point it's hard to say how long after the open that will happen or how deep it will go...Watch your indicators...

Where we are now...

The recently respected trendline is being pressured again from below, and we have to be vigilant here as tomarrow was considered the be the beginning of the turn date window (with Tomarrow and Monday the highest probability dates) so with the Fed struggling to lift this thing, it could be turning early....watch for a break up through the price range it's in now with volume increasing and the turn is in...

The current value of the trendline on the $NDX is at 1742.69, right where the current high for the day is at 1:45 P.M. central time....