O.K. wedge has failed, now the top looks real...

Intermediate term charts look like a good rollover at the appropriate place..Today's high and close are plotted...$NDX bounced off of a trendline, and $SPX rolls over right at one of the .25 nodes..

Intraday bearish $NDX wedge...

The Fed reduction in interest rates allows for a 'pop' in prices and that could happen within this wedge and complete it...

waiting on the Fed...

Little of note happening, tomarrow should unshackle the markets....

McClellan Summation index

This is the McClellan Summation index applied to the $NYA...notice that we are approximately at a long term trendline(top dashed violet line)...This is a reasonably good top indicator in bear markets, but it is usually a bit early in Bull markets. I think there are plenty of other clues around that we are finishing off a top of some magnitude...

Another low volume day...

Like a few days ago we have a steep drop off in volume...The last event produced a small pullback, and then on to a slightly higher high...We'll see if this is the real thing now that we are at a .5000 node...

$NDX exponential trendlines as of this morning

We are very close to the .50000 node, we'll see if this terminates the rally from mid March somewhere over the next day or so...

Note it is customary but not mandatory for these trendlines to be exceeded slightly before a trend change can occur....

$NDX no longer a wedge, probably now a channel...

Off to Baylor University tomarrow...

I will be absent tomarrow, back Saturday..

Good Luck in the markets all...

Mark L.

Damn! a rally!

I don't like filling out charts in advance, but here's a scenario that might explain what's happening today...The .5000 node you see here is the 4/28/08-4/29/08 time period which is roughly a Bradley date...I thought it would be a bottom, not a top some time ago, and then concluded it wasn't going to happen...Now I see where it might fit...

This is a tough one...if it ends up being the scenerio above, or close, it was meant to be..if it stalls here, where there are no real exponential nodes or trendlines close, then it's manipulation as far as I can tell...

Gasoline continued..

Follow up Fibonnacci price levels for Unleaded Gasoline..top is real close...

energy continued...

You can see here that just as gasoline prices are topping, so is Exxon-Mobile. Old resistance is being hit and the stock is overbought. I get a confluence of nodes on this stock around 5/06/08 but it's possible it could break down before then.

One thing that will be hard on stocks in general from here out is that we are entering the unfavorable season for the stock market. "Sell in May and go away" is an old refrain, well, it's not long 'till May....

I believe we've topped on the major indexes but...

I'm holding off a little bit on the intraday stuff, until I'm absolutely sure..it's quite a bit of work even with computers, and I hate to do it over again which is what I would have to do if we made another marginal high in here somewhere..

energy markets

Here is unleaded gasoline, I computed the two charts from the swings shown in the regular chart...Gasoline is topping, and the 1.00 node in the first chart is ideally at 5/15/08 and the 1.5 node in the second chart is ideally at 4/21/08 (meaning of course we're past that date). So the top is in the neighborhood of from now to the next 3 weeks..

Actually given the AB=CD type Fibonacci math, you could argue that we've reached the top now, and the 4/21/08 date was the correct date and interpretation. Targets that are computed that way come out to 3.00 and 3.08 dollars a gallon, so as I say, we may be there..

Air pockets under the market..

One indication of tops is when RSI, MFI, and Ultimate Oscillator are at high values and Chaikin Money Flow is low or negative...Something to watch for...

Intraday time periods..

Since the top is now apparent, and behind us, I will restart the intraday time calculations shortly...

Regards,
Mark L.

What if they wanted to continue the rally, but nobody cared?

This the kind of volume signature you get in the neighborhood of tops...

The intermediate exponential trendline chart, particularly the left one, shows the price action just above the trendline. That's also usual before price action fails.

With the falling volume across all indexes today, I feel pretty confident we've either seen the top, or it is right at hand.

Chaikin Money Flow indicator

One of my favorite volume indicators is this one. Notice what happens when price and the Chaikin Money Flow diverge. Note that this indicator is not far from going negative...

Two normal (non-exponential) trendlines cross...

Notice that in the $SPX, the rally only came up to the intersection of:

(1) the line representing the general level of previous near term tops and...

(2) is touching (and retesting) the lower trendline of the wedge we recently broke down from.

(3) and remember we are at the upper (downward sloping) trendline of long term wedges (see previous posts, this is not shown on this particular chart...)

Given that the exponential work is also saying we are at trendline resistance of that kind (see the post below), and short term sentiment indicators are at extreme (euphoric) levels again, and volume wasn't too impressive... Well, draw your own conclusions...

Intermediate exponential trendline charts with final top values..

Not much different really, same explanations apply as in earlier post..I blew them up a bit for clarity..

The question for the $NDX, is does it stop around where it is now, or does it go on up to the next set of overhead trendlines, which on the middle and rightmost $NDX chart, looks to be around 1940-1950 or so....

new intraday time lines after top is in..

The new top resets the calculations...once that has been determined I'll have new timelines to post...