Latest $SPX charts...

We have a proximity to the crossover in the top chart, which can cause trend changes, also a .500 node (middle chart) is close, although I associate it's effects with the bottom just recently put in......

Latest $NDX charts with yesterdays' high...

Notice the price action has climbed to the major trendline (blue line,middle chart), even as we are in the vicinity of the crossover (top chart). looks like a pretty good pullback should happen here, though not necessarily the end of the rally out of early March.

$NDX charts

This market may interpret the forming crossover with the impending trendline touch for a pause in the uptrend.

A lot of volume today, perhaps the bottom is in after all...

It's hard to argue with the strength we saw today, perhaps we are seeing the counter trend rally I anticipated for early April. Here are the $SPX charts, and the bottom one shows we have gotten close to a .5000 node, (.4783) at a price of 666.79, so, it could be...

Comment on $gold, $silver, and the Dollar index...

Although I've said repeatedly that these previously posted charts are 'young', being all in the vicinity of their .250 nodes, the government's plan to monetize the debt is so ridiculous and extreme, that the fundamentals here, could override the technicals. Meaning that the dollar could start to collapse here, and the precious metals could soar, even though normally they would waste time in a sideways correction until a .500 node was reached. So be forewarned, we are in uncharted waters, the inmates are running the asylum, so anything could happen.

Market update...

It does look as though the market is rolling over to the downside...The crossovers and trendlines are doing their work, as expected...You can see the $NDX failure a little better here then yesterday, the $SPX chart is similar...Still watching for an early April bottom of some importance...

$SPX and $NDX charts

Two charts here, you can see the proximity of a crossover on the $SPX (top chart) and the trendline penetration and possible reversal on the $NDX (bottom) chart. Of course it ain't cooked yet, we need follow through to see if the market really reverses back down here...Have to wait and see...

Key dates to watch ...

Mike Swanson, of Wall Street Window, speculates that one or both of these dates may cause the market to gap up, and consequently cause the market to top. Then the market turns down.
April 2 - mark-to-market vote by FASB
April 8 - uptick rule vote by SEC

If you check a few posts back, I came up with approximately the same dates, but I think these will be potential bottoming dates rather then topping dates...

To save you trouble of looking, here are the previous posts:


http://marketmathematics.blogspot.com/2009/02/spx-charts.html#links


http://marketmathematics.blogspot.com/2009/03/latest-ndx-charts.html#links


If you check these previous posts, you'll see that I came up with April 1st and 7th, one day earlier then each of his....essentially the same targets...

$SILVER Charts

This is my most complex set of charts, currently. The main trendlines from the largest time scales are bold and thick, and the two sets of 2nd order trendlines are thin and dotted, respectively. These come from the fact that the decline so far is a '5' which I decompose into two distincts "3's". Nonetheless, little change from last time, I still think the larger pattern is down (or maybe sideways), as the .500 major node has not been reached.
We're still hanging in the vicinity of the .250 nodes...

United States Oil (USO)

This looks slightly early as a 1.00 node (middle, 1.272 chart), and I am wondering if the incipient crossover in the bottom chart scuttles this rally, to let it rise at one of the other two 1.00 nodes. Or, it may be real and a just a little early, after all?

Current $Gold charts

There are some interesting trendline interactions, but no nodes are close by..
I would think the larger pattern is still down....

$SPX charts

Notice the trendline crossover about to happen on the top spreadsheet chart, and the .500 node getting close on the bottom spreadsheet chart... Breadth indicators (shown at very top) lead me to think we have more downside yet, so I vote with the node over the crossover..see earlier posts for dates..

The centre cannot hold.

I'm reminded of Yeat's famous poem here.

There is talk of bailouts for homeowners who can't make their mortgage payments. The question is never asked why, after a while, anyone would continue to pay mortgage payments if a few could simply claim 'hardship', to get out of them. After a while, as the economy worsens, it will be hard to find anyone who will keep up with their mortgage, and then credit card payments and some taxes will be ignored. Then the Banks and perhaps some levels of Government will find out what it means when their requests for payments become 'discretionary'. Even without the moral hazard of a Federal Bailout, if people have to choose between food and taxes, or food and their house payment, guess which goes?

Rental properties could also suffer, as renters lose jobs, are evicted, and dispossessed homeowners can't fill the appearing vacancies because their credit score is now so bad. At job losses approaching 1 million a month, 18 months of this could bring this about. Current national rental vacancies are about 10%, highest since before the 1960's.

So many apartment complexes could go bankrupt as well, and no bank will want to pick up these properties because they are no longer profitable. Who will the remaining renters pay their rent to? O.K., the banks, but it could be a loser for them. I don't know. And I suppose quite a few people will be living in their cars. Local city governments will also lose tax revenue from failures in the rental market, just like the loss in property taxes from dispossessed homeowners.

I won't even mention the lost tax revenues from failed commercial properties as 50+ retail chains have disappeared.

So where will all the money come from to maintain the local roads and water supplies, and police and fire protection, if local tax revenues fall hard? If most of the banks fail as well, as people 'forget' to make payments to them,the velocity of money will approach zero.

This could be when we'll all find out, what systemic collapse feels like.

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.

Yeats, 1920

$NYSI2 chart

If I had to guess, I'd say a bottom looks likely in early April, wouldn't you?
This matches well with the .5000 node on $SPX...See the earlier posts on this...

latest $NDX charts...

Notice that $NDX is also approaching a .5000 node, but it is further out. Right now I lean towards the $SPX charts being a better indicator of a proximate bottom. The .5000 node on the middle $NDX chart is at around 5/26/09...Note that there are major crossovers forming (both primary and second order)on the upper chart(1.382) that will come in around 4/1/09, and that may be significant as it's in the range we see for the .500 $SPX node at 4/7/09...

$SPX charts...

I haven't updated the $SPX charts as much as the $NDX charts, the banking component collapsed this index below it's trendlines, making the charts less useful, but now you can see we are approaching a .5000 node anyway... That node is formally arriving around 4/7/09, but my vote is for just before that, mid March at earliest.
But keep the formal date in mind in case it takes that long for a bottom....

Note the crossover on the 1.382 charts, it occurs on 3/19/09, very close to the 1.000 node date for USO. That may also signal the bottom as it is acceptably close to the $SPX .5000 node at that point (.487). Remember from our Fibonacci work on an earlier posting today, we get 602 and 620 as probable bottom price targets. Looking at the 1.272 $SPX chart above, you should be able to visualise where that price and time window is...

Gold charts...

Notice that the second order trendlines stopped the $Gold rally when the primary trendlines didn't...that's unusual...
This somewhat resurrects the idea that we still have a bottom in $Gold out somewhere near the .500 node or beyond, which is normal behaviour...note though that we are also sitting on a primary trendline, and this will provide support, so this is still a somewhat undecided set of charts that needs further time to resolve...

Elliot count on $SPX...

You can see here, we might be completing wave 3 of 5, and possibly starting a small wave 4 of 5, then you have the last real shorting opportunity as we do wave 5 of 5, and that's it for the big wave 'A' downleg from October 2007. A substantial wave 'B' should follow. It's possible that the turn date for USO, below, is related to the start of wave 'B' in stocks. It wouldn't be totally surprising if the end of 'A' and the beginning of 'B' for the $SPX was in mid to late March. Keep in mind that where I put the 'B' wave on the chart is not where it will end up. It will probably take several months to complete 'B', somewhere off the chart. This is only a schematic.

Just for completeness, the price that's 62% down from the October '07 top is 602, and the point where wave 5 on the diagram equals wave 1 is at 625...This is around the price where wave 'A' should end.

USO revisited....

Notice a 1.000 node coming up soon (middle chart)...

When does it land exactly? 3/19/09 Watch for a REAL bottom in USO possibly a few days either side of that date. That's normally what you would expect. The bounce back at the .75 node a few weeks ago was not something I had a lot of confidence in, as the .75 is a 'minor' node...

A little rally may be starting...

As I mentioned Saturday, the market is very oversold, and though a shorting opportunity is close, we may get a rally of a few days in here, so patience is advised. Historically, the last couple days of a month into the first couple days of the following month have a Bullish bias.