Todays charts

The markets gapped up today, and the dollar gapped down. This is what's happening. The dollar needs to find a bottom for the market to stop rising. I'm tempted to say the money printing is causing this. I monitor many other Technical analysis sites, and everybody's work says a top should be in here somewhere, in fact many have been expecting it for over two months now...
So, when so many methods by competent people are not confirming the market action but they confirm each other, then something is going on beyond normal market forces....

Just an update after market close, all of the major indexes except the $SPX have now got the Chaiken money flow going negative. That's usually associated with declines, I don't think I've ever seen much of a market advance under that condition.

The large bulge in the Chaiken money flow up to this point suggests a lot of accumulation, which might make a big decline difficult in the short term...

Martin Armstrong is probably right...

So who is Martin Armstrong? He's in jail for some kind of alleged fraud, I think. He is a former Wall Street insider type who claims he was victimized by the government for 'knowing to much' or something like that. In all honesty, I don't know enough about his case to evaluate his personal situation. But he has a kind of cycle theory, which has had some spectacular hits. His defenders have a website with some of his work, he publishes from prison. The link is here:

http://www.martinarmstrong.org/economic_projections.htm

Anyway, his next cycle turn date is a bottom, and it's due about 6/15/11.

It turns out that the move from October '07 to March '09, when extended out by 1.618, comes to that date, to the day.

I have found nodes that line up with it pretty well, and at least one more Fibonacci extension that also lines up, again, almost to the day.

Check out his link, it's interesting. He may have nailed where Elliot Wave '3' of this bear market will end, timewise...

In the lower chart shown, his prediction of 2011.45 aligns perfectly with the 'blue' 1.618 vertical line projection. You can check this out on a spreadsheet or calculator...

Follow up on MLNX example using Fibonacci time ratios instead of Exponential Time Nodes

The vertical dashed lines (blue and red) are the core time spans, and the solid blue and red vertical lines shows the addition of that amount of time, so labeled, referenced and added to that original span. Different methods/systems, similar results...

Current trendline charts...

A little example of how to use Exponential Time Nodes

Although I think stocks are really more risky than indexes, and I probably wouldn't have done this trade, here is how using nodes can be useful. Look at this chart:



Now if I wanted to know where 'the final bottom' was going to be, to play the next upside, first I might label all of the potential 'Start'-A-B-C patterns for calculations. See how this looks:




Now we pick up the dates and prices for these setups, remember we don't need the data for wave 'B' just 'Start', Wave 'A' and Wave 'C'.

Blue Labels:
Start : 04/02/07 13.70
Wave A : 07/23/07 23.12
Wave C : 10/23/07 24.85

Magenta Labels:
Start: 10/23/07 24.85
Wave A: 11/27/07 16.04
Wave C: 03/17/08 10.85

Red Labels:
Start: 03/17/08 10.85
Wave A: 04/02/08 14.88
Wave C: 06/05/08 17.47

Now we calculate the dates of the major nodes.(All 1.00 nodes, in this case)

Blue: 07/23/08, 11/18/08 , 09/03/09
Magenta: 08/25/08, 10/23/08, 02/27/09
Red: 09/12/08, 10/21/08, 01/16/09

Now we place them on a recent chart to see how they would have looked. Remember, we are looking ahead in time from when we would have done all of this, we wouldn't have known in advance about the rally from the lows...I'm just presenting to show how the nodes fit into the overall picture. Note that two nodes are almost on top of each other, at 10/21/08 and 10/23/08. That often happens at or near major turning points. This is what you look for.



Indicators, as always, are a help, and watching for a positive divergence helps show that the 11/18/08 date (blue vertical line) is preferred. The 10/21 and 10/23 cluster show no positive divergence on MACD, and you wouldn't want to enter a long position without that strong divergence.

The actual bottom was on 11/21/08, and the lowest price on that date was $6.02 a share.

Negative Divergence...

Look at what happened the previous time(s)...If that happens again, I think 9/23/09 will stand as the final top...

Yelnick- Aborted Run on the Dollar?

http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2009/10/aborted-run-on-the-dollar.html

This makes perfect sense to me....

Goldman Sachs gets into Canadian Media...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/why-goldman-advising-canwest-its-programming-line

Makes you wonder what else they're programming, and through what outlets?

Shorter term Exponential trendlines - $SPX

This chart is one of the sources for my call yesterday that the market might falter here...You can see which trendline has held so far, it's highlighted in orange and the tops of the last few days are banging against it. These trendlines are generated from the start and end points of the October 2007 through March 2009 decline...this is a shorter term basis then some of the other ones I've published here. They can be violated, but I give them the benefit of the doubt until they are.

Rally should falter around here...

The slow death of the unified left...

http://peakenergy.blogspot.com/2009/09/slow-death-of-unified-left.html

The slow death of the unified left

Posted by Big Gav in politics, psychology

Excerpts:

The third contradiction is in the West, and it is the deforming effects that the political-economic system has on our culture. Uniquely in history, the contemporary west has made the cultural system subject to the economy, made it its market, raw material and dumping ground. For a century or more this process was held in check by conservative institutions, and, when these collapsed, through attacks by the counterculture, which (briefly) provided an alternative, something seemed to be in place until that offering also, collapsed. After that, the commodity and the commodified image moved to the center of social life. Since the commodity is essentially nihilistic – a commodity is simply something whose value is expressed in terms of every other value – its effect, initially liberating from inherited authority (the church, etc) is ultimately nihilistic too.

Socially, the effects of this are to create increasingly atomised societies, in which it is increasingly impossible to imagine solidarity or close connection beyond the immediate family - and then to offer as a substitute either a cynical and masochistic celebration of atomisation (ie most reality TV shows) or literal-minded religiosity, essentially channelled from the middle ages, ie from the last pre-capitalist period.

Psychologically, the effects are to create increasingly ungrounded people. If the society you grow up in is atomised, then an identity never ‘sets’. The liberation that offers is the freedom to determine your own identity. What it removes is the capacity for any identity to be meaningful.

The saga of Hardin, Montana...

http://www.examiner.com/x-14766-Charleston-Ron-Paul-Examiner~y2009m9d30-Hardin-Montana-tip-of-the-iceberg

By the way, the head of the APF in Hardin, has had multiple felony convictions. The State Attorney General of Montana is now launching a full investigation...

Exponential trendlines generated both from the October 2007 decline and the March 2009 rally.

Watch which trendlines it ends up respecting, that's the key...

The left edge of the diagram is at 3/6/09, and the rally, up until today, is shown...

I've added blue Fibonacci extension levels for projections off of Bear market Elliot Wave 1 down from the top of the rally...The red levels are projections downward of the rally itself from the rally top. Trendlines aside, there is some congruence between the 1.618 rally projection and the .786 Wave 1 projection....

Markets breaking down...

The nodes and trendlines have done their job...

Expect that we have a bounce here though...

Both major indexes now sport a lower high and lower low...

The only question is whether we bounce out of this and work higher ( I doubt that, really)or drive lower under volume, somewhere in the next few days. I will have new charts out as soon as I think they have something new on them to see...

Founding Fathers Of Our New Country

Very impressive missive on how we started...

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article13811.html

Dollar ready to break out of bullish wedge near .25 node.

The Dollar Index bottomed, as far as I can tell, on 9/17/09 at a node value of .25554, nominal, which is 2.2% away from ideal.

What’s the real reason that banks aren’t foreclosing?

http://housingstorm.com/2009/09/whats-the-real-reason-that-banks-arent-foreclosing/

It's called mark to market accounting...

Nice bounce this morning...

My guess is, it will retrace 62%, about 1066 on the $SPX.

The announcement of 'World Government'

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/09/25/obama-announce-expansion-global-cooperation/

The Fox News title is "Obama to Usher In New World Order at G-20"