Longer range view of $RUT trendline in previous post..

$SPX and $RUT struggle with trendlines...

On both, you can see that today (so far), the span between the highs and lows has narrowed...

PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS says good-bye...

Truth Has Fallen and Taken Liberty With It

http://www.counterpunch.org/roberts03242010.html

Some one or some thing has gotten to him...He was outspoken for years...

KUHNER: Will America break up?

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/mar/25/will-america-break-up/

Sultans of Swap - Act 3

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/gtlong/2010/0326.html

Max Keiser report...

http://ia331224.us.archive.org/2/items/MaxKeiserRadio-TheTruthAboutMarkets-27March2010/tam270310.mp3


Want to know the future?...listen to Max's report...No one can see ahead like this guy....I'm serious....

Playing with exponential trendlines...

You might note the long range $SPX trendline chart about 3 or 4 posts back. The downward sloping trendline on that chart that is magenta colored, I have plotted on a small graph with the recent trendline from the MicrotrendlineSPX chart..Those of you who follow me regularly will be familiar with the charts I am referencing...Anyway, with the highs and lows of the $SPX added, you can see how this index is reacting near the point of the crossover of the very long term based exponential trendline with the microtrendline from the 2007-2002 decline. All data is up to date as of 4:00 P.M. today (Friday). The bumpiness of the trendlines is caused mostly by weekends where the previous Friday's data is reposted on Saturday and Sunday....

Yelnick - Did ObamaCare Spook the Bond Market?

http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2010/03/did-obamacare-spook-the-bond-market.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+PlanetYelnick+%28Planet+Yelnick%29

also:

Mish Shedlock - Treasury Yields rise; What's Cooking?

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

Some experimental work by Hopper...

One of my new oscillators is the pdf that is attached. It looks at differences in RSI of MFI.
It doesn't seem to work well as a trading tool, but looking at this picture, one can spot a new high recently...
This could infer a breakout of a new trend.
So, yes I am shorting now, but that is only for a short to intermediate term.
The longer term may be more up...

Cheers,
Hopper

Long range trendlines on the $SPX...

More signs of resistance...

An unexpected result...

A while back, I published this chart before we had a breakout of the symmetrical triangle. I was expecting the triangle to break out to the upside, as I presumed that Britain was in more trouble than the U.S. This chart almost suggests the opposite...

Then today I found this:

U.S. Is Riskier Than Euro Zone; So Says CDS Market

link:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703312504575142112712294450.html?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines


The article is warning that something deep is being revealed, that we need to be wary now..

Both the article and the chart are in agreement that something is going really rotten in the state of Denmark, er..the U.S., rather...

One step toward the end of the Bull run...

Now we need a decline below the Microtrendlines by a percent or so...and it's soup...

MicroTrendline Charts

Bears, keep your powder dry, don't pull the trigger on too many short positions until price action ducks back below these lines...The December 28th, double nodes took 13 trading days to resolve into a top on 1/15/10, the 3/11/10 nodes could take almost as long, so patience is required...

So, Who Is spinning - Boris Chikvashvili

http://borisc.blogspot.com/2010/03/so-who-is-spinning.html

Showdown in Europe

This is an excellent analysis by Boris Chikvashvili, who has a very interesting and successful market analysis method of his own. You should all check out his site:

http://borisc.blogspot.com/

By the way, he sees an immanent drop here also..

Slight rally in the markets today...

Only the $NDX made a marginal new high, all of the other indexes failed to do that, most appear to have been rolling over near the close...

The $SPX stayed under it's trendline and showed negative divergence implying further weakness. The $NDX today bounced off of it's trendline, but showed weakness into the close. The general trend of advance-declines is of increasing weakness as charted here yesterday...so we will see what happens tomorrow...

Underlying weakness in equities markets suggests little upside from here...

Note the vertical red lines where the two exponential nodes presaged declines in the Nasdaq 100 McClellan Oscillator (symbol: $NAMO). This wasn't planned, but the nodes line up well with two recent peaks in this indicator.

Note that the MACD crossover of the 'zero line' of the McClellan Oscillator (at the top of the chart) often corresponded with peaks in the $NDX. I have highlighted some of these events with vertical magenta, dashed lines. Looking at the current MACD, a similar crossover should occur early next week.

I do see the MACD of hourly market action does suggest a bounce on Monday. However the Advance/Declines ratio, smoothed by a 40 day moving average (core process in computing the McClellan Oscillator) is showing that the underlying strength in the markets is ebbing away, quickly. Therefore the bounce should be contained by existing exponential trendlines, as they have been in the recent past:

Just to add, the McClellan Oscillator for the $NYSE (symbol: $NYMO) is showing the same pattern...

It Was a Wonderful Life.- James Quinn

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article18000.html

We had the choice between Bedford Falls and Pottersville.
We chose Pottersville....- Quinn

A beautiful article- it appeals to the heart as much as it does to the mind...

Sultans of Swap - ACT II - The Sting!

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/gtlong/2010/0319.html

A lot of meat here....

Market had a reasonable decline today...

On which ever day, that the $NDX goes below it's exponential trendline, we will have a sell signal...A better and safer one will be when we go about as far below that trendline as we shot above it...When that happens I will report it here that evening...

That will probably be early next week...



Can you spot all of the factors above, that makes a 'top' probable here? (Click on the chart to enlarge)

The 'green mountains' on this chart, are a price-volume oscillator (CMF). When it diverges rapidly with price action, it's a good tool for timing...

Microtrendline charts updated below...

http://marketmathematics.blogspot.com/2010/03/microtrendlines-updated-1000-am-cst.html