Bitcoin may have established a channel, if it maintains it, it will be back at it's old high by the fall of 2016.

Where we are, and where we're going. Expect a 60% correction over the next 5 years.

Notice the HUGE A-B-C Pattern, where A=C.

For now a linear trendline of the $SPX will work almost as well as the exponentially derived one in terms of fitting the data. But later they will diverge as markets don't follow straight lines as much as you're led to believe..

Probably won't post too much from now 'till right after the New Year, though I am working on a new Fibonacci program, and will be testing it over the holidays.

At this point, you don't need to be a market technician to see the top is in...

Serious $SPX divergence. You can bet today's action will not be enough to alleviate this.

What a Elliott Wave Zig Zag looks like on a 'normal' chart versus an exponential spreadsheet plot.

One, you know you have a support trendline, and one you don't...(click on images to enlarge)

This is a chart of Libor rates (interbank lending rates) superimposed on the S&P 500 chart. Something in the background is blowing up, big time. Liquidity is disappearing..

Did you feel the earth move? It recently has. The dollar is starting to crash, behind the scenes junk bonds are blowing up, Bitcoin is on fire and even moribund precious metals are starting to shine. We have just passed a major INFLECTION POINT.

There is an ETF of the Eurostoxx 50 index, that is making an interesting, albeit sloppy exponential channel right now.

This isn't apparent on 'normal' charts. It's approaching a 1.0 node and overhead resistance. We'll see what happens, it either rolls over here, or goes on to a new high in late January.

Found some tabular data for the Baltic Dry Index. Looks like these maths will work for this too, but I didn't get enough data to draw a lot of conclusions. Interesting though...

The Dollar dumped yesterday, as the charts said they would...

Compare this chart to the one posted on November 30th, you can see the decline has started.

Recent rise in Bitcoin was really a long term breakout from an old trendline.

Notice the downsloping magenta trendline, and the times it was respected..and then the pop above it recently..

Bitcoin update. Notice the structural similarity between this and the Dollar Index (Previous post). As Bitcoin declined from a high formed at the juncture of two nodes, so we might expect the Dollar to do the same. Bitcoin is recovering nicely, the Dollar probably won't.

Notice the results from two different studies, the recent spike in Bitcoin prices correspond to a .75 and .125 (1/8th) nodes. For the unintiated, nodes come as factors of '2' of two series, 1.5, .75, .375, etc. being one series and 2, 1, .5, .25, .125. etc., being the other.

Dollar Index Update

Dollar has busted out of a small wedge but is up against a couple more resistance lines at or near either a .500 (third pic.) or 1.00 node (fourth pic.). Could stall or reverse right here. The first image is hardest to reconcile with the others, but it is the shortest time scale pictured. Regular chart, breakout is the little curl to the upper right, the wedge can also be seen, but it looks elongated within the narrowing Bollinger Bands.

With Housing going soft, these charts say Lumber production should start to fall immanently. Yes, these maths will work on production output data, not just prices!

Note the nodes now being reached, .500 on earlier format (with a trendline crossover, another indication of change, lower chart), and on a different study, -1.0 on the newer format (upper chart). The reason this works for production data, is because raising or lowering production is an economic decision, not unlike buying or selling a security.

All previous trendlines on recent charts for precious metals, and the $SPX are holding. That is, using XAU as my PM index, that bottom is holding and the top long term trendline on the $SPX is still capping any further advance.

If anyone has an interest in an analysis, point me to a dataset, and I'll consider doing it. Most of the markets haven't progressed enough in any specic direction to make recharting them worthwhile at this time.

Market action for the last few days has been somewhat ambiguous. Certainly the powers that be are trying to keep the markets up, even as they bring societies down. Surprising that they can't understand that you really can't get away with that.

Here's what stopped the waterfall decline in August. This supporting trendine will need to be breached for a bear market to truly begin.

The important dates that mathematically created this trendline are: 10/10/02 (major bottom) 3/5/04 (intermediate top) 10/11/07 (major top) Closer view: