Notice that when plotted in normal 'linear time', the trendlines slowly curve...This is covered in my book.
Friday, September 25, 2009
Exponential Trendlines plotted against normal dates rather than Nodes.
Notice that when plotted in normal 'linear time', the trendlines slowly curve...This is covered in my book.
A great essay by George Ure
Although I'm skeptical of George's 'predictive linguistics', I think he and Alex Jones have the economic/political situation sorted out pretty well.
http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm
Here's his essay:
G-20 Stress
In what seems almost like a replay of the 'battle of Seattle' the scene of the present G-20 meetings in Pittsburgh is not exactly a glowing example of peaceful protest nor restrained response as 20-odd people have been arrested so far at the G-20. The usual tactics on both sides - running small groups of anarchists versus police with tear gas and rubber bullets.
From an historic perspective, these are interesting times to be sure: The US, founded on principles of freedom has seen the ascendancy of the non-human corporate persona which has come to dominate not only the conduct of governance through huge lobby and special interest groups that essentially run public policy via their sway, but at the same time has become blinded to the evolution of the corporate Super Class by corporate media which seems intent on not discussing the Up/Down issues and casts it universally as either economic or contained within a childish right/left framework.
Thus, the G-20 may be thought of more accurately as a corporate global governance conference than world leaders meeting to address basic human needs. It's against this background that the US is being dethroned as the lone global super power amidst headlines like "US May Face 'Armageddon' If China, Japan Don't Buy Debt."
Filling some of the predictive linguistic expectations out of the web bot project, we can't help but notice the deployment of 'acoustic weapons on US soil' - the devices which once turned on cause excruciating pain. That so-called 'non-lethal' weapons may have long term health consequences doesn't seem to much concern authorities although they are getting plenty of attention among protesters and those concerned with maintenance of free speech.
My personal take on the danger of non-lethal weapons is that they provide a 'migration path' (to use the marketing term) which provides the increasing intertwined military/police complex on American soil a way to edge soldiers who would never begin use of lethal force against U.S. citizens a way to slowly work up to it.
The use of 'migration pathing' is also clear as the New World Order of the Bush Era is being rolled out under the context of 'maintain global economic order'. Reuters has a pretty good piece on how the "New world economic order takes shape at the G20."
We can clearly see how global super government will eventually steal not only American autonomy, but will begin to take on a life of its own through the global public purse, eventually moving toward global taxes in order to fund hugely profitable globalist pet projects in the area of environmental, food production and so forth.
The use (consciously or otherwise) Hegelian dialectic - create a terrible problem and then offer the prepackaged 'right' solution - allows the corporate globalist gang to pocket wealth from scams like derivatives, roll the crisis over onto the public through financial collapse, and stick the public with the bill while those at the top skate.
While the U.S. Supreme Court recently indicated that it is open to an even further expansion of corporate/special interest use of money to buy government policy favorable to corporate/special interest objectives, American families are kept off-balance by a war in Afghanistan (where we sadly lost five more on our soldiers overnight) and by a 'war on terror' punctuated by period arrests and claims about web use to find bomb supplies.
You might want to print out this article from this morning's Washington post, by the way, since in the linguistics we are headed toward some kind of control/licensure/restrictions on the internet in 2010. All in the name of keeping us safe, don'tcha know.
All of which is not to pass judgment on whether the stew of current events is either good or bad; it's just what it is to the aware observer - the once Constitutional governance of America being usurped/replaced by corporate mastery of public policy which allows the very greediest of humans to hide their wealth and abuses behind the corporate veil on the pretext that it's really what's best for all of us; and they know what's best for us since they are so much better than us commoners.
Like royalty that first Americans first fled, then defeated, the corporate masters have gone global in scope and are arranging the next steps of consolidated global governance in Pittsburgh.
Way back when, I won a regional SDX award for a story about how at the height of the Cold War there was an active corporate nuclear trade involving the Soviet Union and the West. In that report I noted that one could take the Cold War as a sham since there was growing nuclear trade between the sides.
To update that perspective, I similarly see governments following a corporate lead; doing 'roll-ups' of countries under regional banners like the European Union and eventually a North American Union. If, along the way, we have to suffer through a collapse of the economy to hobble America, then I guess that's what will be supplied.
If you thought America had lost control of its supposed representatives in Washington, who didn't return phone calls or respond to voter demands in the 'too big to fail' scam, you ain't seen nothing yet. Just think what a fine world we'll have when there's another layer of government over America run by the corporate proxies. Fun world, huh?
The world is waking up - and well meaning, peace & freedom loving humans are continuing to connect on the net and a new kind of consciousness is arising. By oh, next summer or so, we may be seeing a fair bit of confrontation between regular humans and corporate humans. Should be interesting, to say the least. Which is why the FCC's 'net neutrality' will have to be undermined by the PowersThatBe. Can't have a globally connecting mind questioning those who a busily seizing the reins and profits for themselves and their owners, can we?
If you have taken your morning double-dose of cynicism pills, you might be tempted to speculate that the talk of 'net neutrality' is nothing more than another fund raising scheme hatched by the democons and republicorps to bulk up their coffers before 'hoodwink' time (elections) roll around again. Trust you read Richard Doman's piece this week: "Republicans back off net neutrality gambit"?
http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm
Here's his essay:
G-20 Stress
In what seems almost like a replay of the 'battle of Seattle' the scene of the present G-20 meetings in Pittsburgh is not exactly a glowing example of peaceful protest nor restrained response as 20-odd people have been arrested so far at the G-20. The usual tactics on both sides - running small groups of anarchists versus police with tear gas and rubber bullets.
From an historic perspective, these are interesting times to be sure: The US, founded on principles of freedom has seen the ascendancy of the non-human corporate persona which has come to dominate not only the conduct of governance through huge lobby and special interest groups that essentially run public policy via their sway, but at the same time has become blinded to the evolution of the corporate Super Class by corporate media which seems intent on not discussing the Up/Down issues and casts it universally as either economic or contained within a childish right/left framework.
Thus, the G-20 may be thought of more accurately as a corporate global governance conference than world leaders meeting to address basic human needs. It's against this background that the US is being dethroned as the lone global super power amidst headlines like "US May Face 'Armageddon' If China, Japan Don't Buy Debt."
Filling some of the predictive linguistic expectations out of the web bot project, we can't help but notice the deployment of 'acoustic weapons on US soil' - the devices which once turned on cause excruciating pain. That so-called 'non-lethal' weapons may have long term health consequences doesn't seem to much concern authorities although they are getting plenty of attention among protesters and those concerned with maintenance of free speech.
My personal take on the danger of non-lethal weapons is that they provide a 'migration path' (to use the marketing term) which provides the increasing intertwined military/police complex on American soil a way to edge soldiers who would never begin use of lethal force against U.S. citizens a way to slowly work up to it.
The use of 'migration pathing' is also clear as the New World Order of the Bush Era is being rolled out under the context of 'maintain global economic order'. Reuters has a pretty good piece on how the "New world economic order takes shape at the G20."
We can clearly see how global super government will eventually steal not only American autonomy, but will begin to take on a life of its own through the global public purse, eventually moving toward global taxes in order to fund hugely profitable globalist pet projects in the area of environmental, food production and so forth.
The use (consciously or otherwise) Hegelian dialectic - create a terrible problem and then offer the prepackaged 'right' solution - allows the corporate globalist gang to pocket wealth from scams like derivatives, roll the crisis over onto the public through financial collapse, and stick the public with the bill while those at the top skate.
While the U.S. Supreme Court recently indicated that it is open to an even further expansion of corporate/special interest use of money to buy government policy favorable to corporate/special interest objectives, American families are kept off-balance by a war in Afghanistan (where we sadly lost five more on our soldiers overnight) and by a 'war on terror' punctuated by period arrests and claims about web use to find bomb supplies.
You might want to print out this article from this morning's Washington post, by the way, since in the linguistics we are headed toward some kind of control/licensure/restrictions on the internet in 2010. All in the name of keeping us safe, don'tcha know.
All of which is not to pass judgment on whether the stew of current events is either good or bad; it's just what it is to the aware observer - the once Constitutional governance of America being usurped/replaced by corporate mastery of public policy which allows the very greediest of humans to hide their wealth and abuses behind the corporate veil on the pretext that it's really what's best for all of us; and they know what's best for us since they are so much better than us commoners.
Like royalty that first Americans first fled, then defeated, the corporate masters have gone global in scope and are arranging the next steps of consolidated global governance in Pittsburgh.
Way back when, I won a regional SDX award for a story about how at the height of the Cold War there was an active corporate nuclear trade involving the Soviet Union and the West. In that report I noted that one could take the Cold War as a sham since there was growing nuclear trade between the sides.
To update that perspective, I similarly see governments following a corporate lead; doing 'roll-ups' of countries under regional banners like the European Union and eventually a North American Union. If, along the way, we have to suffer through a collapse of the economy to hobble America, then I guess that's what will be supplied.
If you thought America had lost control of its supposed representatives in Washington, who didn't return phone calls or respond to voter demands in the 'too big to fail' scam, you ain't seen nothing yet. Just think what a fine world we'll have when there's another layer of government over America run by the corporate proxies. Fun world, huh?
The world is waking up - and well meaning, peace & freedom loving humans are continuing to connect on the net and a new kind of consciousness is arising. By oh, next summer or so, we may be seeing a fair bit of confrontation between regular humans and corporate humans. Should be interesting, to say the least. Which is why the FCC's 'net neutrality' will have to be undermined by the PowersThatBe. Can't have a globally connecting mind questioning those who a busily seizing the reins and profits for themselves and their owners, can we?
If you have taken your morning double-dose of cynicism pills, you might be tempted to speculate that the talk of 'net neutrality' is nothing more than another fund raising scheme hatched by the democons and republicorps to bulk up their coffers before 'hoodwink' time (elections) roll around again. Trust you read Richard Doman's piece this week: "Republicans back off net neutrality gambit"?
Thursday, September 24, 2009
If the Elliott people should turn out to be right, and a wave 'C' is coming, where is resistance?
You can see the big overhead resistance for this rally, and should the market really fall here, there's very little existing below the old March '09 bottom. The largest resistance is just below 4000 on the DOW, and it ain't much....
What does Fibonacci say? Well, if yesterday was the top of 'B', which I suspect, then the levels on the DOW would be as follows:
C = .618 * A = 5093
C = .786 * A = 3774
C = 1.000 * A = 2098
Pretty scary. I see a potential match between the two methods at 3774 or so, don't you?
The first Great Depression.
The first Great Depression...1930's? No, earlier than that. Read about the crash of 1869 which initiated the first Great Depression. The parallels with today are interesting.
http://www.safehaven.com/article-14559.htm
I appear to have read the charts correctly yesterday, so maybe Elliott Wave 'C' or '3' of the great crash of our era has started. Buckle up, prepare for major bank failures as derivatives collapse.
Mayhem is coming...
http://www.safehaven.com/article-14559.htm
I appear to have read the charts correctly yesterday, so maybe Elliott Wave 'C' or '3' of the great crash of our era has started. Buckle up, prepare for major bank failures as derivatives collapse.
Mayhem is coming...
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
SPX and NDX hourlies...
Do I hear a Bear growling?
This screenshot of 'Clickcharts' a U.K. based, free charting service shows their 'Trend Indicator', which purports to show, based on price and volume, whether buying or selling should predominate. Sort of a volume weighted price oscillator. See also, the hourly chart of the $NDX. Some indicators are falling below the center line. The two charts basically agree. Let's see what happens next....
We all know the Federal Reserve will always try to keep the markets up, by hook or crook, and I do mean crook. So let's see what they do with this...
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Some good sentiment info here...from Mish Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/09/buy-dip-mentality-fully-entrenched.html
Excerpt:
"The opinion that the market can and will continue to rise is becoming ever more widespread, and ironically the bulls ALL say the same thing, namely "everybody else is bearish".
Mutual fund (MuFu) managers are not bearish, that much is certain. At 4.2%, the the MuFu cash-to-assets ratio is one of the lowest in history, in fact lower than at the 2000 top, and only a hair above the 2007 low. Those stats (from a friend) are from July. Given the continued rally, MuFu cash on hand has probably decreased even more in August.
The Dow's dividend yield is now at the level of the the 1968 top and the September 1929 top. Good luck with that!"
Excerpt:
"The opinion that the market can and will continue to rise is becoming ever more widespread, and ironically the bulls ALL say the same thing, namely "everybody else is bearish".
Mutual fund (MuFu) managers are not bearish, that much is certain. At 4.2%, the the MuFu cash-to-assets ratio is one of the lowest in history, in fact lower than at the 2000 top, and only a hair above the 2007 low. Those stats (from a friend) are from July. Given the continued rally, MuFu cash on hand has probably decreased even more in August.
The Dow's dividend yield is now at the level of the the 1968 top and the September 1929 top. Good luck with that!"
The Concentration of Economic Power by Banks and Corporations...New Research
http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/40886/title/Networks_reveal_concentrated_ownership_of_corporations
I was actually a little surprised to not see Goldman Sachs in the top ten of the list provided, unless their influence is hidden in some of the other companies shown...
I was actually a little surprised to not see Goldman Sachs in the top ten of the list provided, unless their influence is hidden in some of the other companies shown...
Another reason the Nasdaq may quit about here...
You have a very heavy congestion price zone (see the red, horizontal bars) right overhead, overbought weekly indicators, and momentum is at best flat or slightly declining..look at the MACD histogram. The market could travel slightly higher, but if it were really to traverse all of this prior overhead congestion, then we are on our way to the moon.
Monday, September 21, 2009
Bank of America: 40% of Junk Bonds to Default by 2013
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/09/bank-of-america-40-of-junk-bonds-to-default-by-2013.html
Who in the world would buy corporate junk bonds in this economic climate. Probably, the ones who believe in 'Green Shoots'.
Who in the world would buy corporate junk bonds in this economic climate. Probably, the ones who believe in 'Green Shoots'.
Saturday, September 19, 2009
Some market technicians possibly calling a top here...
I know that Steve Hochberg at Elliott Wave International is calling a top near here,
and here are two other sites talking about tops:
http://www.safehaven.com/article-14518.htm
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article13552.html
The second guy is using Fibonacci Time ratios, which are occasional useful, but I have found them too infrequently to be generally usable. They can work, however.
My trendline work suggests that both the $NDX and the $SPX have the right characteristics by my system to be at a top, we'll see what Monday brings....
Thursday, September 17, 2009
What does Fibonacci math say about the S&P?
Well,if we did an analysis of Wave A = Wave C, we get 1158.
If C = .618 of A, I get 1048, which we've already passed through.
If C = .786 of A, I get 1097.
These are the normal Fibonacci targets...
Of course, as I post this, the market looks like it's making a top (the candlestick looks right), so we'll see what happens....
I am noticing this morning that I have an exponential trendline at 1075, and the weekly upper Bollinger Band is at 1076, so there is a lot of resistance here...
On the chart set I did yesterday, on the middle chart, it's the ascending Blue line, that's at 1075 this morning, and the high for the day so far has been 1074.77.
If C = .618 of A, I get 1048, which we've already passed through.
If C = .786 of A, I get 1097.
These are the normal Fibonacci targets...
Of course, as I post this, the market looks like it's making a top (the candlestick looks right), so we'll see what happens....
I am noticing this morning that I have an exponential trendline at 1075, and the weekly upper Bollinger Band is at 1076, so there is a lot of resistance here...
On the chart set I did yesterday, on the middle chart, it's the ascending Blue line, that's at 1075 this morning, and the high for the day so far has been 1074.77.
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
How Odd, Very Odd...
On this link:
http://solari.com/blog/
If you page down, you will see that 4 financial people of high rank have committed suicide or died recently. This normally occurs at huge Bear market bottoms (like 1933), not tops.
Perhaps the Powers That Be are experiencing internal conflicts, and resolving them rather roughly, who knows? But this is not normal...
It's going to be a tough autumn and winter...
http://solari.com/blog/
If you page down, you will see that 4 financial people of high rank have committed suicide or died recently. This normally occurs at huge Bear market bottoms (like 1933), not tops.
Perhaps the Powers That Be are experiencing internal conflicts, and resolving them rather roughly, who knows? But this is not normal...
It's going to be a tough autumn and winter...
Just to mention...resistance is close
The $NDX in particular is now entering some powerful resistance zones from March '08 bottoms. The .618 retrace is at 1773.05, also coincident with heavy resistance zones. The $SPX is also running into old resistance around now...
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
O.K., Now I have Denninger figured out...
If you go over to his website today, he's throwing praise and hosannas all over his Hero, Glenn Beck. Pardon me, while I throw up...
How did the International Banking Cartel get started anyway?
Here's my take on it. You heard it here first:
We are coming into a time when most people around the world look to the U.S. as the source of a blight, and their own governments as equally corrupt partners, who willing distributed toxic financial instruments throughout the world economic system. That's why there may be a greater case for intra-national conflicts over and above inter-national conflicts, not that conventional wars won't happen. But it has struck me, that from the time of the first deployment of Nuclear weapons to the present, elites around the world (whom I feel are ' a priori' dirty, anyway) have seen that this idea of starting a war with your neighbors, killing a few million of them, and you lose a few million, was no longer a feasible project. In the old days, after a war, the political elites on the losing side would pay a huge price, but the industrial elites often would slink back into something like their prewar obscurity, but with a lot more cash. In the Nuclear age, the industrial/banking elites realized that wars of that type could land them in a nuclear fireball, the homeland was no longer a safe place to be while you sent your poor plebeians 'over there' to fight, so their predatory instincts had to find a new paradigm. I think the mimicking of tactics in the banking industry against their middle classes from country to country ( think of little, bankrupt, Iceland here, or Eastern Europe, broke), shows an unparalleled international cooperation and communication among power elites, that historically, are more generally rivals. These, I believe, are the 'unintended consequences' of the Nuclear age.
This is how the elites of the world decided to stop quarreling with each other and join hands to screw us all, directly, without the normal vehicle of international war. The war machine still exists, and creates small wars with countries that can't fight back, and demonizes them, to keep that part of the game going..., but between 'advanced countries', it's now a Banker's Game, not a War Game.
We are coming into a time when most people around the world look to the U.S. as the source of a blight, and their own governments as equally corrupt partners, who willing distributed toxic financial instruments throughout the world economic system. That's why there may be a greater case for intra-national conflicts over and above inter-national conflicts, not that conventional wars won't happen. But it has struck me, that from the time of the first deployment of Nuclear weapons to the present, elites around the world (whom I feel are ' a priori' dirty, anyway) have seen that this idea of starting a war with your neighbors, killing a few million of them, and you lose a few million, was no longer a feasible project. In the old days, after a war, the political elites on the losing side would pay a huge price, but the industrial elites often would slink back into something like their prewar obscurity, but with a lot more cash. In the Nuclear age, the industrial/banking elites realized that wars of that type could land them in a nuclear fireball, the homeland was no longer a safe place to be while you sent your poor plebeians 'over there' to fight, so their predatory instincts had to find a new paradigm. I think the mimicking of tactics in the banking industry against their middle classes from country to country ( think of little, bankrupt, Iceland here, or Eastern Europe, broke), shows an unparalleled international cooperation and communication among power elites, that historically, are more generally rivals. These, I believe, are the 'unintended consequences' of the Nuclear age.
This is how the elites of the world decided to stop quarreling with each other and join hands to screw us all, directly, without the normal vehicle of international war. The war machine still exists, and creates small wars with countries that can't fight back, and demonizes them, to keep that part of the game going..., but between 'advanced countries', it's now a Banker's Game, not a War Game.
Another way of looking at the $NDX...
Note that the bottom chart has a 9 day smoothed average of the 5-point difference formula for numeric derivatives placed against a trendline chart plotted in normal time. Note also that this chart, when it peaks as the market hits the trendlines looks pretty significant. This format is much more readable, but a real pain to produce, particularly with this potential new indicator I'm playing with. You might see that the indicator chart is high currently, and with my limited experience I can't say much except that if that indicator turns back down as we approach the upper trendline, that might be a signal.. You can see I have only plotted two of the trendlines I normally use, but they are the significant ones at the moment..
Those of you who now have my book and spreadsheets, can email me for instructions on how to do this...
Sunday, September 13, 2009
A couple of links from readers...
These are both good...
http://www.gainspainscapital.com/index.php
http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2009-0905-3a.mp3
Also, any of you who haven't gone to the Elliot Wave site I pointed out yesterday, should really now do so, for sure.
That gentleman has some pictures and video captures from yesterday's events in Washington D.C. I am under the impression that the media is downplaying what transpired there, but the pictures reveal the beginnings of a social movement that is clearly gaining speed and power. There may have been a million people in Washington, and they weren't particularly there to do a 9/11 memorial service. They were really MAD. I'm sure the Establishment was scared by this (not that they weren't pretty much expecting it!), so don't be surprised if after a reprieve, things start to move quickly. Homeland security takes over control of the World Wide Web at the end of this month (I'll bet some of you didn't know that). We could see censorship, or who knows what.
Update: Some estimates of the crowds were at levels of 1.5 to 2 million, but television-land said it was a just a few tens of thousands. What does that tell you?
http://www.gainspainscapital.com/index.php
http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2009-0905-3a.mp3
Also, any of you who haven't gone to the Elliot Wave site I pointed out yesterday, should really now do so, for sure.
That gentleman has some pictures and video captures from yesterday's events in Washington D.C. I am under the impression that the media is downplaying what transpired there, but the pictures reveal the beginnings of a social movement that is clearly gaining speed and power. There may have been a million people in Washington, and they weren't particularly there to do a 9/11 memorial service. They were really MAD. I'm sure the Establishment was scared by this (not that they weren't pretty much expecting it!), so don't be surprised if after a reprieve, things start to move quickly. Homeland security takes over control of the World Wide Web at the end of this month (I'll bet some of you didn't know that). We could see censorship, or who knows what.
Update: Some estimates of the crowds were at levels of 1.5 to 2 million, but television-land said it was a just a few tens of thousands. What does that tell you?
Saturday, September 12, 2009
Did you know the relationship between J.P. Morgan Chase and the Fed? One has eaten the other, sort of...
Guess which one....
Find out more here:
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Maxkeisercom/~3/9XMrb2CC4-Y/
Ron Kirby and Max Keiser, total of 10 minutes....a little bit about Barrick's Gold in the first 3 minutes, then it gets real good...
Implications for the economy and the stock markets are discussed...
Find out more here:
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Maxkeisercom/~3/9XMrb2CC4-Y/
Ron Kirby and Max Keiser, total of 10 minutes....a little bit about Barrick's Gold in the first 3 minutes, then it gets real good...
Implications for the economy and the stock markets are discussed...
Thursday, September 10, 2009
A little bit on $Silver
The latest candlesticks are topping patterns...
The exponential chart shows an 'X' axis value close to .50 and the price action close to the .618 retrace. Both of these are negative for a further rise for a while. Also the $Gold/ $Silver ratio is suggesting a top here...
Free Technical Analysis site
Thomas N. Bulkowski is known for his books on chart patterns. He has provided a free site that documents chart patterns. It is here:
http://thepatternsite.com/
Well worth a look, I have bookmarked it for my own review....
http://thepatternsite.com/
Well worth a look, I have bookmarked it for my own review....
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
$USD at overlapping .25 major and .50 minor nodes...
As of yesterday, the $USD index had fallen below it's daily Bollinger Bands...We are in a window when the number of Dollar Bulls is extremely low. This is consistent with the fact that the dollar index is at a major .250 node (actual .25181) and a minor .500 node hits on the 10th of September. Also, there could be a maximum of pessimism as we approach the anniversary of 9/11...So there is a chance here, for a roughly synchronized pattern of equity declines, renewed dollar strength, and declines in precious metals.
This is a lot to think about, and of course, none of it may happen. There are things lined up though, that could make this scenario possible.
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
$SPX - RSI in a channel...
Should see another little top soon....
I think the negative divergence in this RSI channel, gives the Bears something to look at, both in terms of another top, near term, as RSI hits the top of the channel (again), and maybe the final fall of these indicators below the 50 level on RSI and on the Ultimate Oscillator would constitute a sell signal, overall...
Interesting move by Charlie Sheen.
It's being reported by Alex Jones that Charlie Sheen is going to try to engage President Obama in a dialogue about 9/11. A very gutsy tactic, I hope he has some success. Even if the government didn't cause 9/11, I have read numerous reports about various foreign intelligence agencies giving the U.S. warnings about it, months in advance. There's quite a bit being hidden, incompetence at the very least.
Sunday, September 6, 2009
Max Kaiser and Stacy Herbert dissect current econo-politics
Max Kaiser is sort of a comedy act with high academic and vocational credentials, and his sidekick Stacy Herbert is the stabilizer in this duo... Max rants intelligently, you always learn something when he rants, but it's full of dark humor. It has to be this way to match the world we are now living in...
Was that a good introduction? I don't know, it was meant to be, though...
http://ia311036.us.archive.org/3/items/MaxKeiserRadio-TheTruthAboutMarkets-05September2009/tam050909.mp3
I find myself laughing through much of Max and Stacy's broadcasts even if I feel a little guilty afterwards...give it a try....
Their main site is here:
http://maxkeiser.com/
Lots of interesting market and economic commentary, woven in with European flavored existential awareness.
Was that a good introduction? I don't know, it was meant to be, though...
http://ia311036.us.archive.org/3/items/MaxKeiserRadio-TheTruthAboutMarkets-05September2009/tam050909.mp3
I find myself laughing through much of Max and Stacy's broadcasts even if I feel a little guilty afterwards...give it a try....
Their main site is here:
http://maxkeiser.com/
Lots of interesting market and economic commentary, woven in with European flavored existential awareness.
Friday, September 4, 2009
An interesting comment from Karl Denninger...
As some of you know, I have linked to Karl Denninger's site from time to time. I happened to send him an email asking him why he believed the official 9/11 story was all there was. His reply was, well, like this:
You're dead wrong Mark.
Another nut for the ban list.
This is what you get when you ask a close minded person, to "open up" a little.
I didn't make any wild assertions, just asked if he saw any inconsistencies in the official story.
He is still a very astute observer, worth reading, but he has issues....
Don't bother emailing him, he rejects all mail as spam (you can get around it, once only)...I've never seen anyone who is 'public' in his sense do that either...
You're dead wrong Mark.
Another nut for the ban list.
This is what you get when you ask a close minded person, to "open up" a little.
I didn't make any wild assertions, just asked if he saw any inconsistencies in the official story.
He is still a very astute observer, worth reading, but he has issues....
Don't bother emailing him, he rejects all mail as spam (you can get around it, once only)...I've never seen anyone who is 'public' in his sense do that either...
the current market
As of noon today CST, he $NDX and the $SPX have both rallied up to Fibonacci points of .618 and .500 retraces of their decline from 8/28. The $SPX also has overhead resistance from a previous bottom at around 1015 or so..This could be where they stop and resumes their declines but we must watch cautiously here...
The Global system..what it's evolving towards...
This series describes pretty well what is already happening, and shows, I think where the future lies...
http://www.theglobalist.com/StoryId.aspx?StoryId=7962
http://www.theglobalist.com/StoryId.aspx?StoryId=7958
http://www.theglobalist.com/storyid.aspx?StoryId=7965
Parts 1,2, and 3 linked above...
Thursday, September 3, 2009
The rise of 'scarcity industrialism'
As if things couldn't get worse for the U.S., which hopes 'green jobs' will restore it's industrial core, here's the truth: We haven't got the resource base to do this.
China supplies most of the world's rare earth minerals that makes much of high-tech possible. They've been selling most of their output to us, but that's about to change.
This article is a bit long, but well worth the trouble to read in it's entirety.
http://www.energybulletin.net/50020
It sucks to be us....
China supplies most of the world's rare earth minerals that makes much of high-tech possible. They've been selling most of their output to us, but that's about to change.
This article is a bit long, but well worth the trouble to read in it's entirety.
http://www.energybulletin.net/50020
It sucks to be us....
Current $SPX chart...
The horizontal dashed lines are Fibonacci retracements, so the market is reacting to both an exponential downsloping trendline and the .382 retracement, and proximaty to a .500 node.
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
Get ready for more bank giveaways, er..., bailouts...
A friend of mine from Bartlesville, Oklahoma supplied me with this link:
http://trueslant.com/matttaibbi/2009/09/01/bailout-propaganda-begins/
http://trueslant.com/matttaibbi/2009/09/01/bailout-propaganda-begins/
I also am starting a parallel blog on BullBear.com
I am posting basically the same content on BullBear.com. No decision yet whether I'll maintain two of these indefinitely or not, or consolidate back to one...but for now, I will be in both places...
A few technical comments...
Adding to the bearish viewpoint, the weekly MACD on $VIX has crossed over, and the $SPX has fallen through the 'blue' trendline I drew the other day.
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
The list of banks going to be hammered by bad Commercial Real Estate
Here is a list of banks, whose stocks could be eminently short-able...
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/bank-holding-companies-ranked-by-commercial-real-estate-loans/
This shows listed exposure to commercial real estate sorted from the greatest exposure to the least...
Given that this sector is beginning to have real problems, this is a list to watch..
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/bank-holding-companies-ranked-by-commercial-real-estate-loans/
This shows listed exposure to commercial real estate sorted from the greatest exposure to the least...
Given that this sector is beginning to have real problems, this is a list to watch..
Monday, August 31, 2009
A sell signal coming?
Aside from the clear divergence on this chart (courtesy Clickcharts), you can see the new little red bar on the Trend Indicator/Oscillator, that says sell, has appeared this morning. Of course the day is young so we shouldn't get too eager. If however, say, tomorrow it goes well below the blue trendline I have drawn, then maybe the autumn decline is here....
An additional and better confirmation would be seeing price action go below the August 17 bottom on fairly high volume...that means going below the horizontal magenta line I have drawn...
Patience again, wait for clear signals....
Saturday, August 29, 2009
Divergence - $SPX
Divergence is not a 'sell' signal. It does give some idea of the 'fuel' available for a move, if there is to be one. Looks like plenty of fuel here...
By the way, the $NDX looks about the same way.
Friday, August 28, 2009
$NDX moves towards one of it's .500 nodes as well...
Quietly, the $NDX has been stealthily creeping up on it's .500 node (1.317 time base), current value is .48988.
It also is getting tangled up in a couple of trendlines, as you can see, and meanwhile the $SPX is at a node value of .51810, still very much in the window of a .500 node decline, which doesn't expire until node values of .530 or greater. So both indexes are ripe now to fail. And September is almost here, the killer month for stocks.
Another nice blog...
Charles Malay, a longtime trader, has a very nice blog. His view on the markets can be summarized as follows:
# The Market PE is historically overvalued. The Current PE is @ 17 on the S&P.
# The Stock Market is overbought when measured by the number of stocks above their 50 day moving average lines.
# Bullish Sentiment is high. The Daily Sentiment Index (DSI) hit 89%. This reading is the same as the Oct 2007 high.
# Investors Intelligence, AAII registered 19% bears. This is the same reading as the time high reading.
# The trading volume is poor. There is less volume on each push up.
# Insiders are selling at 28 times the amount they are buying.
# September is traditionally a tough seasonal month. 17 out of the last 20 years have been down.
# Markets have rallied up over 50% off the bottom in 5 months. This is the farthest and fastest in history.
# The NASDAQ 100 has retraced over 50% of the decline off the all time highs.
# The SP has retraced 40% of the decline.
# The Aug 24th high was not confirmed by the 24 day RSI and MACD reading creating a divergence.
# The Shanghai index has dropped over 20% from the highs. This market bottomed before our markets and led the U.S rally up.
# 25% of NYSE volume recently has been FNMA, Freddy Mac, and Citicorp, all low price stocks that the public buys. (speculation)
# The volatility Index (VIX) hit a new low on 8/25 confirming the bullish sentiment readings. This is a signal of NO fear in the markets.
# There was no bullish reaction to the Bernanke nomination and other improved economic news. Perhaps the tone is changing
His work can be found here:
www.viewpointsofacommoditytrader.com
# The Market PE is historically overvalued. The Current PE is @ 17 on the S&P.
# The Stock Market is overbought when measured by the number of stocks above their 50 day moving average lines.
# Bullish Sentiment is high. The Daily Sentiment Index (DSI) hit 89%. This reading is the same as the Oct 2007 high.
# Investors Intelligence, AAII registered 19% bears. This is the same reading as the time high reading.
# The trading volume is poor. There is less volume on each push up.
# Insiders are selling at 28 times the amount they are buying.
# September is traditionally a tough seasonal month. 17 out of the last 20 years have been down.
# Markets have rallied up over 50% off the bottom in 5 months. This is the farthest and fastest in history.
# The NASDAQ 100 has retraced over 50% of the decline off the all time highs.
# The SP has retraced 40% of the decline.
# The Aug 24th high was not confirmed by the 24 day RSI and MACD reading creating a divergence.
# The Shanghai index has dropped over 20% from the highs. This market bottomed before our markets and led the U.S rally up.
# 25% of NYSE volume recently has been FNMA, Freddy Mac, and Citicorp, all low price stocks that the public buys. (speculation)
# The volatility Index (VIX) hit a new low on 8/25 confirming the bullish sentiment readings. This is a signal of NO fear in the markets.
# There was no bullish reaction to the Bernanke nomination and other improved economic news. Perhaps the tone is changing
His work can be found here:
www.viewpointsofacommoditytrader.com
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
The Market...
$VIX went up some, $VXN went up quite a bit, so the $NDX therefore showed more of a potential top forming today then the other indexes, but patience will reveal what it will.
For what it's worth, the sentiment index I've been showing, fell back from extreme readings the very day that $VIX crossed into the 1.00 node (the 25th), which would seem to be a confirmation of a top, but price is the final arbiter.
For what it's worth, the sentiment index I've been showing, fell back from extreme readings the very day that $VIX crossed into the 1.00 node (the 25th), which would seem to be a confirmation of a top, but price is the final arbiter.
Koyaanisqatsi - Hopi Indian for "World out of Balance"
Directed by: Francis Ford Coppola
This is a must see, a cult film from the early '80's about the ecological destruction of the earth by modern societies. It takes a bit over an hour to see, but it's worth it. A Classic, on Youtube.
The music is by Phillip Glass. Eerie, mystical...
The link is here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sps6C9u7ras
This movie is beautiful, a little sad, and dramatic.
Particularly so, are the prophesies made by the Hopi's listed at the very end....
Hopefully, the speaker systems on all of your computers can handle the full dynamic range the music provides, the sound is remarkable, extraordinary....
The Cinematography is much like IMAX.
Hope you can all find time to see it. You will have to put up with a short commercial at the beginning.
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Market closes, didn't do much....
After having just barely crossed the 1.00 node time point, the $VIX made a big hammer that stuck down into the daily Bollinger Bands. I do know this is options expiration week, so any declines in the markets may be modest at best until the big players do what they want to do Friday. But this rally is very flimsy at this point.
Monday, August 24, 2009
Financial Crisis Called Off!
http://kunstler.com/blog/2009/08/financial-crisis-called-off.html
James Kunstler has accurately distilled the current view. It matches other sentiment measures. Wild bullishness is everywhere on Wall Street, if not Main Street.
Wall Street is in for a rude awakening, PDQ.
Just another note: as of 9:20 A.M. Central time, the indexes are up about .65%, but $VIX is up almost 1.6% (not surprising given Friday's charts, take a look back), and maybe forming a double bottom with it's low of last Monday. Once $VIX starts rising in earnest, the rally is toast. I suspect we're close to that.
James Kunstler has accurately distilled the current view. It matches other sentiment measures. Wild bullishness is everywhere on Wall Street, if not Main Street.
Wall Street is in for a rude awakening, PDQ.
Just another note: as of 9:20 A.M. Central time, the indexes are up about .65%, but $VIX is up almost 1.6% (not surprising given Friday's charts, take a look back), and maybe forming a double bottom with it's low of last Monday. Once $VIX starts rising in earnest, the rally is toast. I suspect we're close to that.
Saturday, August 22, 2009
Another reason the stock market is near the end of the rally...
http://www.sentimentrader.com/
The long term side (on the right) of this chart reached an extreme similar to the current values of the short term (on the left) side 2-3 weeks ago and then pulled back, but the short term side has not been this bullish since the rally began in March. I think we're in the last inning, before things turn ugly.
Combine this information with the charts on the previous two posts...
Friday, August 21, 2009
Two $VIX charts...
Look at MACD on the hourly $VIX chart. Looks like $VIX wants to turn up. Look at the daily $VIX chart I posted a few days back. Monday is 08/24/09... Let's see what happens...
Remember, $VIX is the opposite (sort of) of the $SPX, so, if $VIX starts to head up, the $SPX index heads down...
Why EROI is important...
EROI stands for Energy Return On Investment. For those of you who are younger, it will dominate the rest of your lives. To find out why, read this:
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article12875.html
Below a EROI of about 3:1, bad things happen to modern societies. Get those solar cells and windmills up, fast!
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article12875.html
Below a EROI of about 3:1, bad things happen to modern societies. Get those solar cells and windmills up, fast!
Thursday, August 20, 2009
The 'Book' has arrived!
For those of you who have requested copies, they will go out tomorrow. Thank you all for your interest!
Anyone wanting a copy, just needs to send me their mailing address, and I will mail it to you. In return, after you receive the book, send me $20.00 plus shipping (I will let you know what that is in an email, I assume 3 to 4 dollars from the U.S. Postal Service), and on receipt I will email you the spreadsheet that goes with the book.
Rep. Bachus: "Social Security Could Face Default Within Two Years"
http://www.howestreet.com/articles/index.php?article_id=10516
Another interesting piece by Michael Shedlock.
Another interesting piece by Michael Shedlock.
Search for Cycles, S&P500
Playing with OPEN,HIGH,LOW,CLOSE data, and Standard Deviations, I have come up with this raw chart. This might be an image I can find regular cycles in. Or perhaps, one of you out there can print it off and find them also....Sort of a challenge...If you are perhaps interested, email me and I will send you the data that generated this chart....
P.S. It is sort of interesting that from the fall of 2007 onwards, big spikes in this graph mostly correspond to major market tops...Looks to me like maybe we just had another one of those...
How The Shadow Banks Hijacked The Fed, The Law of ONE
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article12864.html
The interesting point here is that the creation of derivatives, not the money printing of the Federal Reserve, produced the 'fake boom' of the last 7 years. Pretty well argued here...
The interesting point here is that the creation of derivatives, not the money printing of the Federal Reserve, produced the 'fake boom' of the last 7 years. Pretty well argued here...
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Whole Banking System insolvent and will fail?
Karl Denninger, as always, has a great post, pointing out that the entire Banking system in the U.S. has passed the ominous 5% bad loan level, and is currently at 6.49% (and still rising, of course).
You should read it, it's good:
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1344-Will-It-All-Come-Tumbling-Down.html
You should read it, it's good:
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1344-Will-It-All-Come-Tumbling-Down.html
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Whether you believe or disbelieve in Peak Oil...
Consider that GM is unlikely to survive by selling unproven $40,000 electric car technology (Volt) in what is likely only the early part of this economic tsunami. Ponder, that a few years ago, the U.S. automakers manufactured 19 million cars in one year, last year 11 million were produced, down over 45%.
Consider that, already, cash starved states like Michigan, are so completely broke that they are fixing roads with gravel, essentially beginning the process of de-paving them.
Further, road paving is paid for primarily by gasoline taxes, with electric cars (even if they 'make it' as a product), well, you get the picture...they don't use gasoline (much).
Consider then, that we are at, or already past, Peak Autos and Peak Roads, no matter what happens to the oil supply itself...
Consider what this, in turn, means...
Consider that, already, cash starved states like Michigan, are so completely broke that they are fixing roads with gravel, essentially beginning the process of de-paving them.
Further, road paving is paid for primarily by gasoline taxes, with electric cars (even if they 'make it' as a product), well, you get the picture...they don't use gasoline (much).
Consider then, that we are at, or already past, Peak Autos and Peak Roads, no matter what happens to the oil supply itself...
Consider what this, in turn, means...
Robert Crumb's Short History of America
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LzqfkXqUJBo
Neat artwork, gentle old-time piano background...
Can be seen in just over a minute..cool...
Neat artwork, gentle old-time piano background...
Can be seen in just over a minute..cool...
Monday, August 17, 2009
Decline starts, as I suggested last week...
Here we go!
Pulling away from the trendlines, with conviction!
Top of $SPX was indeed called at node value .50677 with error of 1.354% on 8/7/09...
Another bad sign for this rally - Insider selling.
http://pragcap.com/insider-selling-soars-buying-still-at-record-lows
Overall, not what you'd expect from a sustainable rally....
Overall, not what you'd expect from a sustainable rally....
Saturday, August 15, 2009
Nodes on the $VIX
Note how tight the Bollinger Bands are as we approach the 1.00 node just ahead...that's expected as nodes that turn markets represent major slowing of price action relative to calendar time...current node value is just past .99, so we could turn at any time...
Friday, August 14, 2009
How to judge the next decline's magnitude...
This is something that everyone agonizes over. Looking at the $VIX monthly chart, I am seeing some of the lowest indicator readings produced over the last 5 years. Also the 'Volatility Fast' indicator is at one of the lowest readings (most complacent) in the last 5 years. This makes it hard to believe the decline to come will be 'shallow'....(For those of you unfamiliar with the $VIX it generally runs as the inverse of the $SPX. Now bottoms here are tops, and vica versa.)
This piece by Sy Harding kind of supports the too much Bullish Sentiment/Complacency argument:
http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/HARDING.html
Current $USD chart.
This index is almost at a .25 node (1.382 base). The actual value is .24211. This is the dollar's last chance to rally using the leverage of the .25 node, as the two other .25 nodes have already passed by. I think this will happen however, coincident with an imminent fall in equities, which tends to strengthen the dollar.
Technically, the theoretical date for the perfect .25 node here is 9/2/09, but we are close enough, that this index could in fact, rise at any time...
The most gilded age in US history
http://maxkeiser.com/2009/08/14/the-most-gilded-age-in-us-history/
This is a great post over on Max Keiser's site with a very clear chart. Says it all, rich get richer, poor get poorer. But this is quantitative, no hand-waving.
I just rechecked, and this article is really originally over at The Huffington Post, but visit Max's site anyway, He and his sidekick Stacey Herbert always have something unique going on over there. I highly recommend it.
This is a great post over on Max Keiser's site with a very clear chart. Says it all, rich get richer, poor get poorer. But this is quantitative, no hand-waving.
I just rechecked, and this article is really originally over at The Huffington Post, but visit Max's site anyway, He and his sidekick Stacey Herbert always have something unique going on over there. I highly recommend it.
Thursday, August 13, 2009
O.K., Now I see what's going on... about cycles...
After spending about two days intensively researching this, I can see that cycles in the 'Exponential Time' sense do exist, but they are short lived. Using the data I displayed a couple of days ago, I stripped out the cycle lengths, both as calendar days and as fractional node values. The two charts displayed here, are the results using that data.
You can see that the 'cycles', I have now more modestly renamed 'Events' in keeping with what they really are.
Basically, they vary so much in duration, that to call them cycles is just wrong. They do in fact, generally decrease in length (calendar days) as you run through an Elliot wave pattern from end to end, but the real interesting fact, is that by seeking out reasonably easy to find events (like the bottoming of the Williams%R oscillator on daily charts), the relative (node) spacing of these events relative to exponential time, changes and shrinks very dramatically as you pass through a completed Elliot wave pattern. In other words, cycles they usually aren't, but as detectors of a completed pattern, yes, they can be. That's really not too shabby.
It's still true that exponential processes are throwing out a lot of extra events, both tops and bottoms, into the stream, so a Fast Fourier Transform is going to try (struggle?) to fit these things into linear cycles. That said, this approach still might still work well at very long time scales, where I suspect Cycles dominate more than Exponential Time effects...
Conventional charts
No secret that not only are unconventional methods saying 'toppy' so are conventional, as in these charts.
One thing I will add, however, is the market may not 'tank' from around here...I am seeing negative divergence on some measures, but not a lot. It's still reasonable that it will do some horizontal thing for a while, or do a double top. The market likes to frustrate everybody...
A lot of opinions are out there on the market...
My opinion? This market is running on fumes. I wouldn't be surprised if by early next week it started to break down. Not quite a prediction, but I can see the possibility of that in the numbers. It seems this morning the Powers That Be strove mightily to lift this thing up, partly succeeded, and then the market stalled at resistance, again. I don't see what's going to change, so they are probably pushing on a string...
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
$NDX resistance...
After today's pointless Federal Reserve Crap (polite term), you can see the two run ups to the trendlines (two little strikes against the ascending blue trendline) from both 7/30/09 and today. I say trendlines because both first order and second order trendlines are in play. A lot of resistance there...
Also the $SPX is still under the influence of a .5000 node, and failed to make a higher high today, and facing trendline resistance. Don't forget too, that both indexes are at Fibonacci retracement levels, and pressing against their upper weekly Bollinger Bands. As I said, a lot of resistance...
Wow. Warren Buffet says the market has bottomed. Baloney!
Warren Buffet just announced the recession is over. Right. So Real Estate is on it's way back to lofty overpriced values? Pensions that have disappeared have come back? Talk about a shill for the establishment, Warren should know better. A year from now he's going to have major egg on his face, even if the stock market manages to hold near it's current value, which I doubt....
I notice the market is up today but...
I wouldn't get too excited by the rally today, there is a lot of overhead resistance. So could the market move on to new highs? Anythings possible, but I kind of doubt it. Time will tell....
Playing with Cycles (part 1?)
Some of you might remember back a few days ago, that I now had time to return to research since the book I was writing is 'at the printers'. Well, cycles are something I hadn't investigated much in the context of exponential time. My preliminary results are very interesting.
On studying the literature, I found that the usual procedure was to take the raw data, detrend it to make it less 'lumpy' and to take the 'tilt' out of it, whether up or down, then run a Fast Fourier Tranform on it to find the 'cycles'. I picked up the book 'Rocket Science for Traders' and saw the work done there. I came to the conclusion their methods were all flawed by the fact that if a particular cycle failed to show up in price action (as, say, a local low at that point),on a given date, it was lost to the software analysing it.
By looking at fast oscillators, like Williams %R for instance, I noticed that it was showing a lot of cycle activity that the other researchers were missing, because it didn't always translate into a big price move. With that in mind, I started picking cycle bottoms as calendar dates off of charts using Willaims%R and occasionally RSI, and then plotting them to see if I could figure out the cycle period.
I quickly realized on looking at the data, that sometime cycles of regular period were indeed showing up in the exponential time field, but sometimes the cycles were erratic, and not holding to a constant value (in terms of exponential node spans, not calendar days, of course). It was clear, however, that when plotted exponentially, the changes in Elliot Waves were made very apparent!
I am showing two charts here, of the same data. Using the Weekly chart of the $NDX, I picked off 18 values from the 10/8/02 bottom to the recent price action.
The bottom chart shows the cycle bottoms plotted against the average cycle time (all in normal calendar time), which, not surprisingly is an uninspiring and useless chart. This is what was produced first, as a control case. Then I created the top chart which shows the same dates plotted as node values against a chosen node cycle, and suddenly they group into linear segments defining the run time of individual Elliot Waves. I have labeled all of the cycle bottom dates used (the same dates plotted without labels in the boring, calendar time, lower chart) and also marked are important transitions. This has been done for two other bear market rallies (not shown) with the same results. Obviously, this has to be repeated many more times in backtesting, but I think I'm on to something here....
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Correlations between the $USD and Equities...
Very good charts here, and I agree with most of the conclusions presented:
http://www.safehaven.com/article-14160.htm
http://www.safehaven.com/article-14160.htm
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