Wednesday, February 20, 2008

What's next?




It looks like a small bearish wedge is forming on the $NDX...You can see on the spreadsheet derived charts, that the price action is just past the 1.000 node on the Average Crossover chart, and the price is scheduled to hit overhead resistance on the 1.272 Crossover chart tomarrow...Both ways of looking at the market, to me, seems bearish...

10 comments:

john said...

Mark,

as usual, thanx

old john

Shawn said...

What do you think of today's pattern Mark?

Seems like everyone knows there is a wedge forming in the index, even CNBC was talking about it.

Which way do you think? Thanks!

mlytle said...

Hi Shawn,
I think we break down, I have a cycle bottom expected on 3/3/08, but the only question in my mind is that, will that hold to produce a tradable bottom...I've seen those wedges also, and the timing off of those would normally produce a longer term decline then that which I have been anticipating...So the short answer, I think we're going to breakout to the downside, but I havn't resolved in my mind, how long or how far down we go...

But I suspect that will clear itself up fairly quickly...

Regards,
Mark L.

john said...

Mark,

nice call

old john

mlytle said...

Hi John,
Thanks for the support and compliments!
Mark L.

Shawn said...

Good call Mark! Played QID today for a tiny profit. VIX kept me nervous though.

Although the smart money OEX Put Call ratio seems to think very bullishly about the market at this juncture.

john said...

Mark,
do you have a downside target for NDX?

thanx

old john

mlytle said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
mlytle said...

Hi John,
I'm still chewing on that one..I'm thinking we have at first more of a time limit out to 2/29 or 3/3/08, then a price limit, though I wouldn't be surprised to see us go below the 1/23/08 low at 1693.06. If you look at the point and figure charts, they are giving a price limit of 1630..Using Fibonacci by one method, I come up with 1674..so unfortunately we'll have to play by ear as the different methods havn't converged (yet)...

Regards,
Mark L.

john said...

Mark,
thanx

old john