Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Current $SPX and $NDX charts...




Watch the descending green trendlines for resistance...

The Moment of Truth

I think that the moment of truth comes not from the dollar, which may not in the end, decline to zero, but in the unwillingness of any entity, foreign or domestic, with money denominated in dollars, yen, francs, marks, or anything else to loan any of it to institutions that may be "nationalized" at any time.

The way this works is that the oncoming depression and deflation destroys the few businesses that are still functioning, and with zero credit, no new businesses can form to re-employ anyone.

In one way this was the story in the first great depression, but confidence in the American Culture allowed glimmers of recovery before WWII "rescued" us. This time, we will get a vote of "no confidence" that will last for perhaps 1 or 2 generations. Without trust, no credit, and no recovery. This will accelerate the transition to the world that James Kunstler (see link) has been describing...

I'm sure it hasn't escaped the notice of potential sources of future capital, that the shareholders in these nationalized businesses end up with nothing....

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