Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Guess where we are now?
Many times people have said to me that the market drop from 2000 to 2002 was the analogue to the 1929 crash, and the rally from 2002 to 2007 was the bounce. That's wrong, because the time magnitudes are wrong. The crash WE JUST HAD is now the analogue to September of 1929, the rally we are starting now will be equivalent to the rally that ended in spring 1930, and the second, much longer, and more devastating decline will begin after the current rally ends. The full force of the Depression to follow will hold off until this second downleg makes it's appearance, and has run awhile.....
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2 comments:
interesting point of view
where do you see S&P headed in this rally?
thanks
High Aj,
My first guess would be a 38% retracement, which just by eyeballing alone might be 1100-ish. Tomarrow I will release new exponential charts of the main indexes that should give some tighter limits and possibilities..
I expect bounces to be fast, but not extensive. Probably few 62% bounces...
Regards,
Mark L.
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