Haven't shown these for a while, these exponential trendlines are of a larger order and presumably more resilient then the micro trendlines I've been showing lately. These confirm the topping action suggested by other methods/ indicators. Note the .500 time node we happen to be at in the bottom chart... That's one of the important warnings in this system of trend change...
7 comments:
Mark: Dr. McHugh presents his arguments that top is in?
"The Evidence Builds: Stocks are Topping" by Robert McHugh, Ph.D November 10, 2009
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/tuesday.htm
* Bearish divergence between the Industrials and the S&P 500, the NASDAQ Composite, the NDX, and the Trannies.
* major top is coming, and soon, if it did not arrive Monday.
* Monday’s large price move, due to Friday’s small change in $NYMO.
* 15, 30, 60 minute Full Sto are OB, looking for at least short-term decline.
* Weekly MACD indicators are topping and curling over.
* prices have just reached precisely the intersection of two significant trend-lines, declining tops from October 2007 through now, and rising bottoms from March 2009 through now.
* $WLSH - Wilshire 5000 (plot shown) is near possible completion of a Bearish H&S.
And on gold:
* Gold has completed a very Bullish H&S Bottom.
Upside target is 1,325ish, and the probability of reaching that level has risen dramatically with the recent upside breakout above 1,050ish.
* $HUI also a Bullish H&S Bottom. Upside target of 650ish, which is confirmed.
In reading the last paragraph of this on gold, I am very new to charting, but I was under the impression that an inverse H&S pattern could only occur at a bottom.
Hi Mark,
I'm BBG from the Bull Bear blog.
I'm curious to know if you think we could be at a top? If the market turns downward, how far do you think it could go?
Mark: 1.382 Crossovers Chart
I can see that price (on my Book-regress2_$SPX chart) has crossed above, then below and then above the 1.382 decay Trend Line.
Does the above-below-above gives us some further confidence that a top has been made? Or are we still mostly waiting?
I see that you have incorporated the high and low price on all your charts.
On closer observation, the high/low price shows that either the high or low or both, cross the Trend Lines giving some idea of strength of the penetration or crossover?
Thanks again for your website!
Hi Gail and Bill,
I just posted over on BullBear.com some info I picked up from Elliott International yesterday, The .5 Fib time Extension from Oct '07 to March '09 and the .62 time extension from the March '09 bottom to the 6/11/09 intermediate top both fall in the 11/17/09 -11/18/09 window...so we could top anywhere in here, if those are valid projections...
How far could we fall? At least halfway to Hades as far as I can tell! Seriously,the normal Elliott Wave/Fibonacci targets for the $SPX could take you down to below 200...
Not a happy outcome but probable...
and Bill, I agree with the bullet points you picked up from McHugh, all are valid...
and a bullish inverse head and shoulders on Gold is a possibility, and we 'could' be at some kind of a bottom in that, but I feel you get a dollar rally in here somewhere, and that will cool Gold down for a bit...
Regards,
Mark L.
Bill,
By the way, a great little research project, if you want to or are in the mood for one, is see by what percentage that a price action will commonly penetrate an exponential trendline before it reverses...Of course this is going to be a bell curve or something like that, but you need to find about 30 examples or so and run a regression on the results...I just haven't had the time to do it...I'm guessing it's in the range of 1 or 2% for most situations, if it exceeds the trendline by 4 or 5%, then the trendline is broken, but these are just guesses on my part...
Just a thought..
Regards,
Mark L.
Hi Mark,
Thanks for your replies.
Have you seen Steven Vincent's blog post of earlier this evening about the Australian jobs report in which they have added 24,000 jobs? It seems the dollar has weakened on this news and the bullish set up on the dollar could be negated.
If you have a chance to look at his posts, I'd be interested in knowing what you think.
Many thanks,
Gail
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