The home of the innovation of the Logarithm of Time as applied to the Markets. We also watch for and correlate with major Bradley dates and Fibonacci Time and Price sequences.
Sunday, July 11, 2010
An ambiguous moment.
As you all know, I've closed my long positions (which were in the Russell 2000) as I saw indicators and chart patterns that looked like the end of a trend. It still looks that way to me, but I also can't quite find the justification to go short yet. The $SPX is near the top of it's big down-trending channel, not at the top of it, but close enough to question the risk of staying in as a 'long' trade. The Russell 2000 is somewhat different. It looks 'only' about halfway up, and though it is stalling at a trendline, the main resistance is pretty high above it. I have also realized over the last couple of swings that these micro channels I have discovered, and profitably utilized, have a front and a back. On both indexes we may be seeing the breakdown at the front of the channel, but these are uncommonly wide channels, which means it could take quite a few days to cross them, even if the market remains more or less flat. With a slight rise, say, after a minor correction, it could take even longer to cross the channel, which would result in a reasonably higher market, even though the big rise had already expended itself. Thus my caution at going short.
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