Anyone who thinks the current struggling rally is going to have any legs based on fundamentals should check out this site:
http://www.investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm
This keeps track of the state of international commerce. Basically, international commerce is just a couple of notches above nonexistent right now.
The nice thing about this measure is that governments can't spin it or alter it. It is what it is. It also led the decline of October 2007. It's a leading indicator.
If the "world economy" is "not happening" then a U.S. as well as a world recovery is nigh impossible.
2 comments:
I recommend the following link as i-tools is delayed 24hrs. This has and will continue to be the arbiter for identifying an IT inflection. I am weighing less now because it's basically on the floor now so the move up would need to be material to attract my attention. As far as continued downward movement...if it goes materially lower we're likely already making new lows.
:)
Link
Hi D,
Good Link...
Thanks,
Mark L.
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