Thursday, December 11, 2008

The $USD rally first pulls back at 1/8 node...



This node is generated by the entire down move from July, 2001. Since moves almost never end at the 1/8 node, this says a dollar rally of some considerable duration is ahead of us. The current decline is only a correction in a dollar bull market. The earliest possible failures would normally occur at the 1/4 node, which are sprinkled throughout 2009...The more likely 1/2 nodes for earliest termination of the dollar rally, are three time bands spread out from mid-2010 to late 2011. The actual value at this recent top is .12932 where .12500 (1/8) is ideal (3.4% off from ideal). The value of the currency basket in the index at the top is 88.46, as read off of Stockchart's output.

Even though I find the concept of eventual dollar devaluation compelling, this chart is suggesting deflation for quite a while...

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