With the intraday high currently 1086.16 here's the same chart at 2:30 central time:
You can see the funny 'hook' where the blue line and red line go vertical and overlap..that's what breakouts in their early stages often look like on this system. If I had had the guts to hang on yesterday, a small loss could have been a descent gain by today...but some of this stuff is experimental, theoretical, and I haven't field tested this exponential-log moving average system enough yet to know that it always works...
So the better part of valor...
P.S. The highest confidence breakouts are irrefutably confirmed when the blue and red lines go off the top of the chart....
P.P.S. If the market chooses not to breakout, if this is a bull trap of some kind, that is understandable too. This is the chart that suggests it will fail:
You can see where we are...right up at the old trendline...so it's make or break somewhere close to this price level...
2 comments:
hey Mark,
Having reviewed your charts, and keeping in mind that we all emotionally (no matter how hard we try to control it) want our prognostications to pan out, I think I see the possibility for the SPX high to penetrate the upper trend line while the low fails to penetrate. Eyeballing, my 1125 mark looks possible. IF transpires, this is a HUGE Bull trap befitting the island reversal pattern that lies just above.
The volume is low. So, the question is, who's left to squeeze? Mom and Pop are burnt out or soon will be. The "lesser" quants? Regardless, it's a squeeze that will push the SPX highs through the resistance trendline on your chart. Could be wrong. It might be Americans have suddenly drunk the Kudlow Kool Aid and their confidence in the American dream has been fully restored.
It's going to be quite a show when the two "master" quants (whoever they are) suddenly figure out they're the only two in the room.
Check out AZO. Went down today. Been going up forever!! Now, why would this performer get a downgrade just when things are looking up. Guess because everyone's going to be buying new cars instead of fixing their old one! LOL
Short SPX at close and took them home. Looking for a quick one. May trap me. We'll see.
Regards,
Hi Anonymous,
Yes, I do expect the upper trendlines I have shown to be exceeded. There are some higher ones I haven't shown yet, though I have referred to them...they are the ones generated by the 1.272 and the 1.317 alternate set, and they are currently at 1136 and 1147, although declining at a rate of about 2.31 and 2.00 points respectively per day, so you can estimate them for several days out.
Remember, they will usually be exceeded by a percent or so before they stop an advance...
Regards,
Mark
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