Friday, October 23, 2009
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Clearly, we've made some kind of top (again).
Later on, probably tonight, I'll update all of he charts...
Well, an update. Today was a rally day after all, so no proof of a top yet...
Well, an update. Today was a rally day after all, so no proof of a top yet...
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Drafter of 9/11 official government report now reveals it as a cover-up!
http://www.salem-news.com/articles/september112009/911_truth_9-11-09.php
Looks like the author, John J. Farmer Jr., was New Jersey Attorney General for quite a while, and even Governor of New Jersey, although very briefly.
Looks like the author, John J. Farmer Jr., was New Jersey Attorney General for quite a while, and even Governor of New Jersey, although very briefly.
Obama Poised to Cede US Sovereignty, Claims British Lord
http://fightinwordsusa.wordpress.com/2009/10/15/obama-poised-to-cede-us-soverignty-claims-british-lord/
The important excerpt from this site:
At [the 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference in] Copenhagen, this December, weeks away, a treaty will be signed. Your president will sign it. Most of the third world countries will sign it, because they think they’re going to get money out of it. Most of the left-wing regime from the European Union will rubber stamp it. Virtually nobody won’t sign it.
I read that treaty. And what it says is this, that a world government is going to be created. The word “government” actually appears as the first of three purposes of the new entity. The second purpose is the transfer of wealth from the countries of the West to third world countries, in satisfication of what is called, coyly, “climate debt” – because we’ve been burning CO2 and they haven’t. We’ve been screwing up the climate and they haven’t. And the third purpose of this new entity, this government, is enforcement.
How many of you think that the word “election” or “democracy” or “vote” or “ballot” occurs anywhere in the 200 pages of that treaty? Quite right, it doesn’t appear once. So, at last, the communists who piled out of the Berlin Wall and into the environmental movement, who took over Greenpeace so that my friends who funded it left within a year, because [the communists] captured it – Now the apotheosis as at hand. They are about to impose a communist world government on the world. You have a president who has very strong sympathies with that point of view. He’s going to sign it. He’ll sign anything. He’s a Nobel Peace Prize [winner]; of course he’ll sign it.
[laughter]
And the trouble is this; if that treaty is signed, if your Constitution says that it takes precedence over your Constitution (sic), and you can’t resign from that treaty unless you get agreement from all the other state parties – And because you’ll be the biggest paying country, they’re not going to let you out of it.
So, thank you, America. You were the beacon of freedom to the world. It is a privilege merely to stand on this soil of freedom while it is still free. But, in the next few weeks, unless you stop it, your president will sign your freedom, your democracy, and your prosparity away forever. And neither you nor any subsequent government you may elect will have any power whatsoever to take it back. That is how serious it is. I’ve read the treaty. I’ve seen this stuff about [world] government and climate debt and enforcement. They are going to do this to you whether you like it or not.
But I think it is here, here in your great nation, which I so love and I so admire – it is here that perhaps, at this eleventh hour, at the fifty-ninth minute and fifty-ninth second, you will rise up and you will stop your president from signing that dreadful treaty, that purposeless treaty. For there is no problem with climate and, even if there were, an economic treaty does nothing to [help] it.
So I end by saying to you the words that Winston Churchill addressed to your president in the darkest hour before the dawn of freedom in the Second World War. He quoted from your great poet Longfellow:
Sail on, O Ship of State!
Sail on, O Union, strong and great!
Humanity with all its fears,
With all the hopes of future years,
Is hanging breathless on thy fate!
This fellow, Lord Moncton, apparently got a standing ovation for his speech...
There is a 4 minute Youtube video of this speech on this site..you might want to watch it....
The important excerpt from this site:
At [the 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference in] Copenhagen, this December, weeks away, a treaty will be signed. Your president will sign it. Most of the third world countries will sign it, because they think they’re going to get money out of it. Most of the left-wing regime from the European Union will rubber stamp it. Virtually nobody won’t sign it.
I read that treaty. And what it says is this, that a world government is going to be created. The word “government” actually appears as the first of three purposes of the new entity. The second purpose is the transfer of wealth from the countries of the West to third world countries, in satisfication of what is called, coyly, “climate debt” – because we’ve been burning CO2 and they haven’t. We’ve been screwing up the climate and they haven’t. And the third purpose of this new entity, this government, is enforcement.
How many of you think that the word “election” or “democracy” or “vote” or “ballot” occurs anywhere in the 200 pages of that treaty? Quite right, it doesn’t appear once. So, at last, the communists who piled out of the Berlin Wall and into the environmental movement, who took over Greenpeace so that my friends who funded it left within a year, because [the communists] captured it – Now the apotheosis as at hand. They are about to impose a communist world government on the world. You have a president who has very strong sympathies with that point of view. He’s going to sign it. He’ll sign anything. He’s a Nobel Peace Prize [winner]; of course he’ll sign it.
[laughter]
And the trouble is this; if that treaty is signed, if your Constitution says that it takes precedence over your Constitution (sic), and you can’t resign from that treaty unless you get agreement from all the other state parties – And because you’ll be the biggest paying country, they’re not going to let you out of it.
So, thank you, America. You were the beacon of freedom to the world. It is a privilege merely to stand on this soil of freedom while it is still free. But, in the next few weeks, unless you stop it, your president will sign your freedom, your democracy, and your prosparity away forever. And neither you nor any subsequent government you may elect will have any power whatsoever to take it back. That is how serious it is. I’ve read the treaty. I’ve seen this stuff about [world] government and climate debt and enforcement. They are going to do this to you whether you like it or not.
But I think it is here, here in your great nation, which I so love and I so admire – it is here that perhaps, at this eleventh hour, at the fifty-ninth minute and fifty-ninth second, you will rise up and you will stop your president from signing that dreadful treaty, that purposeless treaty. For there is no problem with climate and, even if there were, an economic treaty does nothing to [help] it.
So I end by saying to you the words that Winston Churchill addressed to your president in the darkest hour before the dawn of freedom in the Second World War. He quoted from your great poet Longfellow:
Sail on, O Ship of State!
Sail on, O Union, strong and great!
Humanity with all its fears,
With all the hopes of future years,
Is hanging breathless on thy fate!
This fellow, Lord Moncton, apparently got a standing ovation for his speech...
There is a 4 minute Youtube video of this speech on this site..you might want to watch it....
Monday, October 19, 2009
Saturday, October 17, 2009
Thursday, October 15, 2009
$SPX micro trendlines
You might remember this chart from last week. Well, it broke through the trendline it was banging against, and ran up to this new one. Let's see what happens here.
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Todays charts
The markets gapped up today, and the dollar gapped down. This is what's happening. The dollar needs to find a bottom for the market to stop rising. I'm tempted to say the money printing is causing this. I monitor many other Technical analysis sites, and everybody's work says a top should be in here somewhere, in fact many have been expecting it for over two months now...
So, when so many methods by competent people are not confirming the market action but they confirm each other, then something is going on beyond normal market forces....
Just an update after market close, all of the major indexes except the $SPX have now got the Chaiken money flow going negative. That's usually associated with declines, I don't think I've ever seen much of a market advance under that condition.
The large bulge in the Chaiken money flow up to this point suggests a lot of accumulation, which might make a big decline difficult in the short term...
Monday, October 12, 2009
Martin Armstrong is probably right...
So who is Martin Armstrong? He's in jail for some kind of alleged fraud, I think. He is a former Wall Street insider type who claims he was victimized by the government for 'knowing to much' or something like that. In all honesty, I don't know enough about his case to evaluate his personal situation. But he has a kind of cycle theory, which has had some spectacular hits. His defenders have a website with some of his work, he publishes from prison. The link is here:
http://www.martinarmstrong.org/economic_projections.htm
Anyway, his next cycle turn date is a bottom, and it's due about 6/15/11.
It turns out that the move from October '07 to March '09, when extended out by 1.618, comes to that date, to the day.
I have found nodes that line up with it pretty well, and at least one more Fibonacci extension that also lines up, again, almost to the day.
Check out his link, it's interesting. He may have nailed where Elliot Wave '3' of this bear market will end, timewise...
In the lower chart shown, his prediction of 2011.45 aligns perfectly with the 'blue' 1.618 vertical line projection. You can check this out on a spreadsheet or calculator...
Saturday, October 10, 2009
Follow up on MLNX example using Fibonacci time ratios instead of Exponential Time Nodes
The vertical dashed lines (blue and red) are the core time spans, and the solid blue and red vertical lines shows the addition of that amount of time, so labeled, referenced and added to that original span. Different methods/systems, similar results...
Friday, October 9, 2009
A little example of how to use Exponential Time Nodes
Although I think stocks are really more risky than indexes, and I probably wouldn't have done this trade, here is how using nodes can be useful. Look at this chart:
Now if I wanted to know where 'the final bottom' was going to be, to play the next upside, first I might label all of the potential 'Start'-A-B-C patterns for calculations. See how this looks:
Now we pick up the dates and prices for these setups, remember we don't need the data for wave 'B' just 'Start', Wave 'A' and Wave 'C'.
Blue Labels:
Start : 04/02/07 13.70
Wave A : 07/23/07 23.12
Wave C : 10/23/07 24.85
Magenta Labels:
Start: 10/23/07 24.85
Wave A: 11/27/07 16.04
Wave C: 03/17/08 10.85
Red Labels:
Start: 03/17/08 10.85
Wave A: 04/02/08 14.88
Wave C: 06/05/08 17.47
Now we calculate the dates of the major nodes.(All 1.00 nodes, in this case)
Blue: 07/23/08, 11/18/08 , 09/03/09
Magenta: 08/25/08, 10/23/08, 02/27/09
Red: 09/12/08, 10/21/08, 01/16/09
Now we place them on a recent chart to see how they would have looked. Remember, we are looking ahead in time from when we would have done all of this, we wouldn't have known in advance about the rally from the lows...I'm just presenting to show how the nodes fit into the overall picture. Note that two nodes are almost on top of each other, at 10/21/08 and 10/23/08. That often happens at or near major turning points. This is what you look for.
Indicators, as always, are a help, and watching for a positive divergence helps show that the 11/18/08 date (blue vertical line) is preferred. The 10/21 and 10/23 cluster show no positive divergence on MACD, and you wouldn't want to enter a long position without that strong divergence.
The actual bottom was on 11/21/08, and the lowest price on that date was $6.02 a share.
Now if I wanted to know where 'the final bottom' was going to be, to play the next upside, first I might label all of the potential 'Start'-A-B-C patterns for calculations. See how this looks:
Now we pick up the dates and prices for these setups, remember we don't need the data for wave 'B' just 'Start', Wave 'A' and Wave 'C'.
Blue Labels:
Start : 04/02/07 13.70
Wave A : 07/23/07 23.12
Wave C : 10/23/07 24.85
Magenta Labels:
Start: 10/23/07 24.85
Wave A: 11/27/07 16.04
Wave C: 03/17/08 10.85
Red Labels:
Start: 03/17/08 10.85
Wave A: 04/02/08 14.88
Wave C: 06/05/08 17.47
Now we calculate the dates of the major nodes.(All 1.00 nodes, in this case)
Blue: 07/23/08, 11/18/08 , 09/03/09
Magenta: 08/25/08, 10/23/08, 02/27/09
Red: 09/12/08, 10/21/08, 01/16/09
Now we place them on a recent chart to see how they would have looked. Remember, we are looking ahead in time from when we would have done all of this, we wouldn't have known in advance about the rally from the lows...I'm just presenting to show how the nodes fit into the overall picture. Note that two nodes are almost on top of each other, at 10/21/08 and 10/23/08. That often happens at or near major turning points. This is what you look for.
Indicators, as always, are a help, and watching for a positive divergence helps show that the 11/18/08 date (blue vertical line) is preferred. The 10/21 and 10/23 cluster show no positive divergence on MACD, and you wouldn't want to enter a long position without that strong divergence.
The actual bottom was on 11/21/08, and the lowest price on that date was $6.02 a share.
Negative Divergence...
Look at what happened the previous time(s)...If that happens again, I think 9/23/09 will stand as the final top...
Yelnick- Aborted Run on the Dollar?
http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2009/10/aborted-run-on-the-dollar.html
This makes perfect sense to me....
This makes perfect sense to me....
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Goldman Sachs gets into Canadian Media...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/why-goldman-advising-canwest-its-programming-line
Makes you wonder what else they're programming, and through what outlets?
Makes you wonder what else they're programming, and through what outlets?
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Shorter term Exponential trendlines - $SPX
This chart is one of the sources for my call yesterday that the market might falter here...You can see which trendline has held so far, it's highlighted in orange and the tops of the last few days are banging against it. These trendlines are generated from the start and end points of the October 2007 through March 2009 decline...this is a shorter term basis then some of the other ones I've published here. They can be violated, but I give them the benefit of the doubt until they are.
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
Monday, October 5, 2009
The slow death of the unified left...
http://peakenergy.blogspot.com/2009/09/slow-death-of-unified-left.html
The slow death of the unified left
Posted by Big Gav in politics, psychology
Excerpts:
The third contradiction is in the West, and it is the deforming effects that the political-economic system has on our culture. Uniquely in history, the contemporary west has made the cultural system subject to the economy, made it its market, raw material and dumping ground. For a century or more this process was held in check by conservative institutions, and, when these collapsed, through attacks by the counterculture, which (briefly) provided an alternative, something seemed to be in place until that offering also, collapsed. After that, the commodity and the commodified image moved to the center of social life. Since the commodity is essentially nihilistic – a commodity is simply something whose value is expressed in terms of every other value – its effect, initially liberating from inherited authority (the church, etc) is ultimately nihilistic too.
Socially, the effects of this are to create increasingly atomised societies, in which it is increasingly impossible to imagine solidarity or close connection beyond the immediate family - and then to offer as a substitute either a cynical and masochistic celebration of atomisation (ie most reality TV shows) or literal-minded religiosity, essentially channelled from the middle ages, ie from the last pre-capitalist period.
Psychologically, the effects are to create increasingly ungrounded people. If the society you grow up in is atomised, then an identity never ‘sets’. The liberation that offers is the freedom to determine your own identity. What it removes is the capacity for any identity to be meaningful.
The slow death of the unified left
Posted by Big Gav in politics, psychology
Excerpts:
The third contradiction is in the West, and it is the deforming effects that the political-economic system has on our culture. Uniquely in history, the contemporary west has made the cultural system subject to the economy, made it its market, raw material and dumping ground. For a century or more this process was held in check by conservative institutions, and, when these collapsed, through attacks by the counterculture, which (briefly) provided an alternative, something seemed to be in place until that offering also, collapsed. After that, the commodity and the commodified image moved to the center of social life. Since the commodity is essentially nihilistic – a commodity is simply something whose value is expressed in terms of every other value – its effect, initially liberating from inherited authority (the church, etc) is ultimately nihilistic too.
Socially, the effects of this are to create increasingly atomised societies, in which it is increasingly impossible to imagine solidarity or close connection beyond the immediate family - and then to offer as a substitute either a cynical and masochistic celebration of atomisation (ie most reality TV shows) or literal-minded religiosity, essentially channelled from the middle ages, ie from the last pre-capitalist period.
Psychologically, the effects are to create increasingly ungrounded people. If the society you grow up in is atomised, then an identity never ‘sets’. The liberation that offers is the freedom to determine your own identity. What it removes is the capacity for any identity to be meaningful.
Sunday, October 4, 2009
The saga of Hardin, Montana...
http://www.examiner.com/x-14766-Charleston-Ron-Paul-Examiner~y2009m9d30-Hardin-Montana-tip-of-the-iceberg
By the way, the head of the APF in Hardin, has had multiple felony convictions. The State Attorney General of Montana is now launching a full investigation...
By the way, the head of the APF in Hardin, has had multiple felony convictions. The State Attorney General of Montana is now launching a full investigation...
Friday, October 2, 2009
Exponential trendlines generated both from the October 2007 decline and the March 2009 rally.
Watch which trendlines it ends up respecting, that's the key...
The left edge of the diagram is at 3/6/09, and the rally, up until today, is shown...
I've added blue Fibonacci extension levels for projections off of Bear market Elliot Wave 1 down from the top of the rally...The red levels are projections downward of the rally itself from the rally top. Trendlines aside, there is some congruence between the 1.618 rally projection and the .786 Wave 1 projection....
Markets breaking down...
The nodes and trendlines have done their job...
Expect that we have a bounce here though...
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Both major indexes now sport a lower high and lower low...
The only question is whether we bounce out of this and work higher ( I doubt that, really)or drive lower under volume, somewhere in the next few days. I will have new charts out as soon as I think they have something new on them to see...
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Dollar ready to break out of bullish wedge near .25 node.
The Dollar Index bottomed, as far as I can tell, on 9/17/09 at a node value of .25554, nominal, which is 2.2% away from ideal.
Monday, September 28, 2009
What’s the real reason that banks aren’t foreclosing?
http://housingstorm.com/2009/09/whats-the-real-reason-that-banks-arent-foreclosing/
It's called mark to market accounting...
It's called mark to market accounting...
Friday, September 25, 2009
The announcement of 'World Government'
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/09/25/obama-announce-expansion-global-cooperation/
The Fox News title is "Obama to Usher In New World Order at G-20"
The Fox News title is "Obama to Usher In New World Order at G-20"
Exponential Trendlines plotted against normal dates rather than Nodes.
Notice that when plotted in normal 'linear time', the trendlines slowly curve...This is covered in my book.
A great essay by George Ure
Although I'm skeptical of George's 'predictive linguistics', I think he and Alex Jones have the economic/political situation sorted out pretty well.
http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm
Here's his essay:
G-20 Stress
In what seems almost like a replay of the 'battle of Seattle' the scene of the present G-20 meetings in Pittsburgh is not exactly a glowing example of peaceful protest nor restrained response as 20-odd people have been arrested so far at the G-20. The usual tactics on both sides - running small groups of anarchists versus police with tear gas and rubber bullets.
From an historic perspective, these are interesting times to be sure: The US, founded on principles of freedom has seen the ascendancy of the non-human corporate persona which has come to dominate not only the conduct of governance through huge lobby and special interest groups that essentially run public policy via their sway, but at the same time has become blinded to the evolution of the corporate Super Class by corporate media which seems intent on not discussing the Up/Down issues and casts it universally as either economic or contained within a childish right/left framework.
Thus, the G-20 may be thought of more accurately as a corporate global governance conference than world leaders meeting to address basic human needs. It's against this background that the US is being dethroned as the lone global super power amidst headlines like "US May Face 'Armageddon' If China, Japan Don't Buy Debt."
Filling some of the predictive linguistic expectations out of the web bot project, we can't help but notice the deployment of 'acoustic weapons on US soil' - the devices which once turned on cause excruciating pain. That so-called 'non-lethal' weapons may have long term health consequences doesn't seem to much concern authorities although they are getting plenty of attention among protesters and those concerned with maintenance of free speech.
My personal take on the danger of non-lethal weapons is that they provide a 'migration path' (to use the marketing term) which provides the increasing intertwined military/police complex on American soil a way to edge soldiers who would never begin use of lethal force against U.S. citizens a way to slowly work up to it.
The use of 'migration pathing' is also clear as the New World Order of the Bush Era is being rolled out under the context of 'maintain global economic order'. Reuters has a pretty good piece on how the "New world economic order takes shape at the G20."
We can clearly see how global super government will eventually steal not only American autonomy, but will begin to take on a life of its own through the global public purse, eventually moving toward global taxes in order to fund hugely profitable globalist pet projects in the area of environmental, food production and so forth.
The use (consciously or otherwise) Hegelian dialectic - create a terrible problem and then offer the prepackaged 'right' solution - allows the corporate globalist gang to pocket wealth from scams like derivatives, roll the crisis over onto the public through financial collapse, and stick the public with the bill while those at the top skate.
While the U.S. Supreme Court recently indicated that it is open to an even further expansion of corporate/special interest use of money to buy government policy favorable to corporate/special interest objectives, American families are kept off-balance by a war in Afghanistan (where we sadly lost five more on our soldiers overnight) and by a 'war on terror' punctuated by period arrests and claims about web use to find bomb supplies.
You might want to print out this article from this morning's Washington post, by the way, since in the linguistics we are headed toward some kind of control/licensure/restrictions on the internet in 2010. All in the name of keeping us safe, don'tcha know.
All of which is not to pass judgment on whether the stew of current events is either good or bad; it's just what it is to the aware observer - the once Constitutional governance of America being usurped/replaced by corporate mastery of public policy which allows the very greediest of humans to hide their wealth and abuses behind the corporate veil on the pretext that it's really what's best for all of us; and they know what's best for us since they are so much better than us commoners.
Like royalty that first Americans first fled, then defeated, the corporate masters have gone global in scope and are arranging the next steps of consolidated global governance in Pittsburgh.
Way back when, I won a regional SDX award for a story about how at the height of the Cold War there was an active corporate nuclear trade involving the Soviet Union and the West. In that report I noted that one could take the Cold War as a sham since there was growing nuclear trade between the sides.
To update that perspective, I similarly see governments following a corporate lead; doing 'roll-ups' of countries under regional banners like the European Union and eventually a North American Union. If, along the way, we have to suffer through a collapse of the economy to hobble America, then I guess that's what will be supplied.
If you thought America had lost control of its supposed representatives in Washington, who didn't return phone calls or respond to voter demands in the 'too big to fail' scam, you ain't seen nothing yet. Just think what a fine world we'll have when there's another layer of government over America run by the corporate proxies. Fun world, huh?
The world is waking up - and well meaning, peace & freedom loving humans are continuing to connect on the net and a new kind of consciousness is arising. By oh, next summer or so, we may be seeing a fair bit of confrontation between regular humans and corporate humans. Should be interesting, to say the least. Which is why the FCC's 'net neutrality' will have to be undermined by the PowersThatBe. Can't have a globally connecting mind questioning those who a busily seizing the reins and profits for themselves and their owners, can we?
If you have taken your morning double-dose of cynicism pills, you might be tempted to speculate that the talk of 'net neutrality' is nothing more than another fund raising scheme hatched by the democons and republicorps to bulk up their coffers before 'hoodwink' time (elections) roll around again. Trust you read Richard Doman's piece this week: "Republicans back off net neutrality gambit"?
http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm
Here's his essay:
G-20 Stress
In what seems almost like a replay of the 'battle of Seattle' the scene of the present G-20 meetings in Pittsburgh is not exactly a glowing example of peaceful protest nor restrained response as 20-odd people have been arrested so far at the G-20. The usual tactics on both sides - running small groups of anarchists versus police with tear gas and rubber bullets.
From an historic perspective, these are interesting times to be sure: The US, founded on principles of freedom has seen the ascendancy of the non-human corporate persona which has come to dominate not only the conduct of governance through huge lobby and special interest groups that essentially run public policy via their sway, but at the same time has become blinded to the evolution of the corporate Super Class by corporate media which seems intent on not discussing the Up/Down issues and casts it universally as either economic or contained within a childish right/left framework.
Thus, the G-20 may be thought of more accurately as a corporate global governance conference than world leaders meeting to address basic human needs. It's against this background that the US is being dethroned as the lone global super power amidst headlines like "US May Face 'Armageddon' If China, Japan Don't Buy Debt."
Filling some of the predictive linguistic expectations out of the web bot project, we can't help but notice the deployment of 'acoustic weapons on US soil' - the devices which once turned on cause excruciating pain. That so-called 'non-lethal' weapons may have long term health consequences doesn't seem to much concern authorities although they are getting plenty of attention among protesters and those concerned with maintenance of free speech.
My personal take on the danger of non-lethal weapons is that they provide a 'migration path' (to use the marketing term) which provides the increasing intertwined military/police complex on American soil a way to edge soldiers who would never begin use of lethal force against U.S. citizens a way to slowly work up to it.
The use of 'migration pathing' is also clear as the New World Order of the Bush Era is being rolled out under the context of 'maintain global economic order'. Reuters has a pretty good piece on how the "New world economic order takes shape at the G20."
We can clearly see how global super government will eventually steal not only American autonomy, but will begin to take on a life of its own through the global public purse, eventually moving toward global taxes in order to fund hugely profitable globalist pet projects in the area of environmental, food production and so forth.
The use (consciously or otherwise) Hegelian dialectic - create a terrible problem and then offer the prepackaged 'right' solution - allows the corporate globalist gang to pocket wealth from scams like derivatives, roll the crisis over onto the public through financial collapse, and stick the public with the bill while those at the top skate.
While the U.S. Supreme Court recently indicated that it is open to an even further expansion of corporate/special interest use of money to buy government policy favorable to corporate/special interest objectives, American families are kept off-balance by a war in Afghanistan (where we sadly lost five more on our soldiers overnight) and by a 'war on terror' punctuated by period arrests and claims about web use to find bomb supplies.
You might want to print out this article from this morning's Washington post, by the way, since in the linguistics we are headed toward some kind of control/licensure/restrictions on the internet in 2010. All in the name of keeping us safe, don'tcha know.
All of which is not to pass judgment on whether the stew of current events is either good or bad; it's just what it is to the aware observer - the once Constitutional governance of America being usurped/replaced by corporate mastery of public policy which allows the very greediest of humans to hide their wealth and abuses behind the corporate veil on the pretext that it's really what's best for all of us; and they know what's best for us since they are so much better than us commoners.
Like royalty that first Americans first fled, then defeated, the corporate masters have gone global in scope and are arranging the next steps of consolidated global governance in Pittsburgh.
Way back when, I won a regional SDX award for a story about how at the height of the Cold War there was an active corporate nuclear trade involving the Soviet Union and the West. In that report I noted that one could take the Cold War as a sham since there was growing nuclear trade between the sides.
To update that perspective, I similarly see governments following a corporate lead; doing 'roll-ups' of countries under regional banners like the European Union and eventually a North American Union. If, along the way, we have to suffer through a collapse of the economy to hobble America, then I guess that's what will be supplied.
If you thought America had lost control of its supposed representatives in Washington, who didn't return phone calls or respond to voter demands in the 'too big to fail' scam, you ain't seen nothing yet. Just think what a fine world we'll have when there's another layer of government over America run by the corporate proxies. Fun world, huh?
The world is waking up - and well meaning, peace & freedom loving humans are continuing to connect on the net and a new kind of consciousness is arising. By oh, next summer or so, we may be seeing a fair bit of confrontation between regular humans and corporate humans. Should be interesting, to say the least. Which is why the FCC's 'net neutrality' will have to be undermined by the PowersThatBe. Can't have a globally connecting mind questioning those who a busily seizing the reins and profits for themselves and their owners, can we?
If you have taken your morning double-dose of cynicism pills, you might be tempted to speculate that the talk of 'net neutrality' is nothing more than another fund raising scheme hatched by the democons and republicorps to bulk up their coffers before 'hoodwink' time (elections) roll around again. Trust you read Richard Doman's piece this week: "Republicans back off net neutrality gambit"?
Thursday, September 24, 2009
If the Elliott people should turn out to be right, and a wave 'C' is coming, where is resistance?
You can see the big overhead resistance for this rally, and should the market really fall here, there's very little existing below the old March '09 bottom. The largest resistance is just below 4000 on the DOW, and it ain't much....
What does Fibonacci say? Well, if yesterday was the top of 'B', which I suspect, then the levels on the DOW would be as follows:
C = .618 * A = 5093
C = .786 * A = 3774
C = 1.000 * A = 2098
Pretty scary. I see a potential match between the two methods at 3774 or so, don't you?
The first Great Depression.
The first Great Depression...1930's? No, earlier than that. Read about the crash of 1869 which initiated the first Great Depression. The parallels with today are interesting.
http://www.safehaven.com/article-14559.htm
I appear to have read the charts correctly yesterday, so maybe Elliott Wave 'C' or '3' of the great crash of our era has started. Buckle up, prepare for major bank failures as derivatives collapse.
Mayhem is coming...
http://www.safehaven.com/article-14559.htm
I appear to have read the charts correctly yesterday, so maybe Elliott Wave 'C' or '3' of the great crash of our era has started. Buckle up, prepare for major bank failures as derivatives collapse.
Mayhem is coming...
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
SPX and NDX hourlies...
Do I hear a Bear growling?
This screenshot of 'Clickcharts' a U.K. based, free charting service shows their 'Trend Indicator', which purports to show, based on price and volume, whether buying or selling should predominate. Sort of a volume weighted price oscillator. See also, the hourly chart of the $NDX. Some indicators are falling below the center line. The two charts basically agree. Let's see what happens next....
We all know the Federal Reserve will always try to keep the markets up, by hook or crook, and I do mean crook. So let's see what they do with this...
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Some good sentiment info here...from Mish Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/09/buy-dip-mentality-fully-entrenched.html
Excerpt:
"The opinion that the market can and will continue to rise is becoming ever more widespread, and ironically the bulls ALL say the same thing, namely "everybody else is bearish".
Mutual fund (MuFu) managers are not bearish, that much is certain. At 4.2%, the the MuFu cash-to-assets ratio is one of the lowest in history, in fact lower than at the 2000 top, and only a hair above the 2007 low. Those stats (from a friend) are from July. Given the continued rally, MuFu cash on hand has probably decreased even more in August.
The Dow's dividend yield is now at the level of the the 1968 top and the September 1929 top. Good luck with that!"
Excerpt:
"The opinion that the market can and will continue to rise is becoming ever more widespread, and ironically the bulls ALL say the same thing, namely "everybody else is bearish".
Mutual fund (MuFu) managers are not bearish, that much is certain. At 4.2%, the the MuFu cash-to-assets ratio is one of the lowest in history, in fact lower than at the 2000 top, and only a hair above the 2007 low. Those stats (from a friend) are from July. Given the continued rally, MuFu cash on hand has probably decreased even more in August.
The Dow's dividend yield is now at the level of the the 1968 top and the September 1929 top. Good luck with that!"
The Concentration of Economic Power by Banks and Corporations...New Research
http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/40886/title/Networks_reveal_concentrated_ownership_of_corporations
I was actually a little surprised to not see Goldman Sachs in the top ten of the list provided, unless their influence is hidden in some of the other companies shown...
I was actually a little surprised to not see Goldman Sachs in the top ten of the list provided, unless their influence is hidden in some of the other companies shown...
Another reason the Nasdaq may quit about here...
You have a very heavy congestion price zone (see the red, horizontal bars) right overhead, overbought weekly indicators, and momentum is at best flat or slightly declining..look at the MACD histogram. The market could travel slightly higher, but if it were really to traverse all of this prior overhead congestion, then we are on our way to the moon.
Monday, September 21, 2009
Bank of America: 40% of Junk Bonds to Default by 2013
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/09/bank-of-america-40-of-junk-bonds-to-default-by-2013.html
Who in the world would buy corporate junk bonds in this economic climate. Probably, the ones who believe in 'Green Shoots'.
Who in the world would buy corporate junk bonds in this economic climate. Probably, the ones who believe in 'Green Shoots'.
Saturday, September 19, 2009
Some market technicians possibly calling a top here...
I know that Steve Hochberg at Elliott Wave International is calling a top near here,
and here are two other sites talking about tops:
http://www.safehaven.com/article-14518.htm
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article13552.html
The second guy is using Fibonacci Time ratios, which are occasional useful, but I have found them too infrequently to be generally usable. They can work, however.
My trendline work suggests that both the $NDX and the $SPX have the right characteristics by my system to be at a top, we'll see what Monday brings....
Thursday, September 17, 2009
What does Fibonacci math say about the S&P?
Well,if we did an analysis of Wave A = Wave C, we get 1158.
If C = .618 of A, I get 1048, which we've already passed through.
If C = .786 of A, I get 1097.
These are the normal Fibonacci targets...
Of course, as I post this, the market looks like it's making a top (the candlestick looks right), so we'll see what happens....
I am noticing this morning that I have an exponential trendline at 1075, and the weekly upper Bollinger Band is at 1076, so there is a lot of resistance here...
On the chart set I did yesterday, on the middle chart, it's the ascending Blue line, that's at 1075 this morning, and the high for the day so far has been 1074.77.
If C = .618 of A, I get 1048, which we've already passed through.
If C = .786 of A, I get 1097.
These are the normal Fibonacci targets...
Of course, as I post this, the market looks like it's making a top (the candlestick looks right), so we'll see what happens....
I am noticing this morning that I have an exponential trendline at 1075, and the weekly upper Bollinger Band is at 1076, so there is a lot of resistance here...
On the chart set I did yesterday, on the middle chart, it's the ascending Blue line, that's at 1075 this morning, and the high for the day so far has been 1074.77.
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
How Odd, Very Odd...
On this link:
http://solari.com/blog/
If you page down, you will see that 4 financial people of high rank have committed suicide or died recently. This normally occurs at huge Bear market bottoms (like 1933), not tops.
Perhaps the Powers That Be are experiencing internal conflicts, and resolving them rather roughly, who knows? But this is not normal...
It's going to be a tough autumn and winter...
http://solari.com/blog/
If you page down, you will see that 4 financial people of high rank have committed suicide or died recently. This normally occurs at huge Bear market bottoms (like 1933), not tops.
Perhaps the Powers That Be are experiencing internal conflicts, and resolving them rather roughly, who knows? But this is not normal...
It's going to be a tough autumn and winter...
Just to mention...resistance is close
The $NDX in particular is now entering some powerful resistance zones from March '08 bottoms. The .618 retrace is at 1773.05, also coincident with heavy resistance zones. The $SPX is also running into old resistance around now...
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
O.K., Now I have Denninger figured out...
If you go over to his website today, he's throwing praise and hosannas all over his Hero, Glenn Beck. Pardon me, while I throw up...
How did the International Banking Cartel get started anyway?
Here's my take on it. You heard it here first:
We are coming into a time when most people around the world look to the U.S. as the source of a blight, and their own governments as equally corrupt partners, who willing distributed toxic financial instruments throughout the world economic system. That's why there may be a greater case for intra-national conflicts over and above inter-national conflicts, not that conventional wars won't happen. But it has struck me, that from the time of the first deployment of Nuclear weapons to the present, elites around the world (whom I feel are ' a priori' dirty, anyway) have seen that this idea of starting a war with your neighbors, killing a few million of them, and you lose a few million, was no longer a feasible project. In the old days, after a war, the political elites on the losing side would pay a huge price, but the industrial elites often would slink back into something like their prewar obscurity, but with a lot more cash. In the Nuclear age, the industrial/banking elites realized that wars of that type could land them in a nuclear fireball, the homeland was no longer a safe place to be while you sent your poor plebeians 'over there' to fight, so their predatory instincts had to find a new paradigm. I think the mimicking of tactics in the banking industry against their middle classes from country to country ( think of little, bankrupt, Iceland here, or Eastern Europe, broke), shows an unparalleled international cooperation and communication among power elites, that historically, are more generally rivals. These, I believe, are the 'unintended consequences' of the Nuclear age.
This is how the elites of the world decided to stop quarreling with each other and join hands to screw us all, directly, without the normal vehicle of international war. The war machine still exists, and creates small wars with countries that can't fight back, and demonizes them, to keep that part of the game going..., but between 'advanced countries', it's now a Banker's Game, not a War Game.
We are coming into a time when most people around the world look to the U.S. as the source of a blight, and their own governments as equally corrupt partners, who willing distributed toxic financial instruments throughout the world economic system. That's why there may be a greater case for intra-national conflicts over and above inter-national conflicts, not that conventional wars won't happen. But it has struck me, that from the time of the first deployment of Nuclear weapons to the present, elites around the world (whom I feel are ' a priori' dirty, anyway) have seen that this idea of starting a war with your neighbors, killing a few million of them, and you lose a few million, was no longer a feasible project. In the old days, after a war, the political elites on the losing side would pay a huge price, but the industrial elites often would slink back into something like their prewar obscurity, but with a lot more cash. In the Nuclear age, the industrial/banking elites realized that wars of that type could land them in a nuclear fireball, the homeland was no longer a safe place to be while you sent your poor plebeians 'over there' to fight, so their predatory instincts had to find a new paradigm. I think the mimicking of tactics in the banking industry against their middle classes from country to country ( think of little, bankrupt, Iceland here, or Eastern Europe, broke), shows an unparalleled international cooperation and communication among power elites, that historically, are more generally rivals. These, I believe, are the 'unintended consequences' of the Nuclear age.
This is how the elites of the world decided to stop quarreling with each other and join hands to screw us all, directly, without the normal vehicle of international war. The war machine still exists, and creates small wars with countries that can't fight back, and demonizes them, to keep that part of the game going..., but between 'advanced countries', it's now a Banker's Game, not a War Game.
Another way of looking at the $NDX...
Note that the bottom chart has a 9 day smoothed average of the 5-point difference formula for numeric derivatives placed against a trendline chart plotted in normal time. Note also that this chart, when it peaks as the market hits the trendlines looks pretty significant. This format is much more readable, but a real pain to produce, particularly with this potential new indicator I'm playing with. You might see that the indicator chart is high currently, and with my limited experience I can't say much except that if that indicator turns back down as we approach the upper trendline, that might be a signal.. You can see I have only plotted two of the trendlines I normally use, but they are the significant ones at the moment..
Those of you who now have my book and spreadsheets, can email me for instructions on how to do this...
Sunday, September 13, 2009
A couple of links from readers...
These are both good...
http://www.gainspainscapital.com/index.php
http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2009-0905-3a.mp3
Also, any of you who haven't gone to the Elliot Wave site I pointed out yesterday, should really now do so, for sure.
That gentleman has some pictures and video captures from yesterday's events in Washington D.C. I am under the impression that the media is downplaying what transpired there, but the pictures reveal the beginnings of a social movement that is clearly gaining speed and power. There may have been a million people in Washington, and they weren't particularly there to do a 9/11 memorial service. They were really MAD. I'm sure the Establishment was scared by this (not that they weren't pretty much expecting it!), so don't be surprised if after a reprieve, things start to move quickly. Homeland security takes over control of the World Wide Web at the end of this month (I'll bet some of you didn't know that). We could see censorship, or who knows what.
Update: Some estimates of the crowds were at levels of 1.5 to 2 million, but television-land said it was a just a few tens of thousands. What does that tell you?
http://www.gainspainscapital.com/index.php
http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2009-0905-3a.mp3
Also, any of you who haven't gone to the Elliot Wave site I pointed out yesterday, should really now do so, for sure.
That gentleman has some pictures and video captures from yesterday's events in Washington D.C. I am under the impression that the media is downplaying what transpired there, but the pictures reveal the beginnings of a social movement that is clearly gaining speed and power. There may have been a million people in Washington, and they weren't particularly there to do a 9/11 memorial service. They were really MAD. I'm sure the Establishment was scared by this (not that they weren't pretty much expecting it!), so don't be surprised if after a reprieve, things start to move quickly. Homeland security takes over control of the World Wide Web at the end of this month (I'll bet some of you didn't know that). We could see censorship, or who knows what.
Update: Some estimates of the crowds were at levels of 1.5 to 2 million, but television-land said it was a just a few tens of thousands. What does that tell you?
Saturday, September 12, 2009
Did you know the relationship between J.P. Morgan Chase and the Fed? One has eaten the other, sort of...
Guess which one....
Find out more here:
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Maxkeisercom/~3/9XMrb2CC4-Y/
Ron Kirby and Max Keiser, total of 10 minutes....a little bit about Barrick's Gold in the first 3 minutes, then it gets real good...
Implications for the economy and the stock markets are discussed...
Find out more here:
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/Maxkeisercom/~3/9XMrb2CC4-Y/
Ron Kirby and Max Keiser, total of 10 minutes....a little bit about Barrick's Gold in the first 3 minutes, then it gets real good...
Implications for the economy and the stock markets are discussed...
Thursday, September 10, 2009
A little bit on $Silver
The latest candlesticks are topping patterns...
The exponential chart shows an 'X' axis value close to .50 and the price action close to the .618 retrace. Both of these are negative for a further rise for a while. Also the $Gold/ $Silver ratio is suggesting a top here...
Free Technical Analysis site
Thomas N. Bulkowski is known for his books on chart patterns. He has provided a free site that documents chart patterns. It is here:
http://thepatternsite.com/
Well worth a look, I have bookmarked it for my own review....
http://thepatternsite.com/
Well worth a look, I have bookmarked it for my own review....
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
$USD at overlapping .25 major and .50 minor nodes...
As of yesterday, the $USD index had fallen below it's daily Bollinger Bands...We are in a window when the number of Dollar Bulls is extremely low. This is consistent with the fact that the dollar index is at a major .250 node (actual .25181) and a minor .500 node hits on the 10th of September. Also, there could be a maximum of pessimism as we approach the anniversary of 9/11...So there is a chance here, for a roughly synchronized pattern of equity declines, renewed dollar strength, and declines in precious metals.
This is a lot to think about, and of course, none of it may happen. There are things lined up though, that could make this scenario possible.
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
$SPX - RSI in a channel...
Should see another little top soon....
I think the negative divergence in this RSI channel, gives the Bears something to look at, both in terms of another top, near term, as RSI hits the top of the channel (again), and maybe the final fall of these indicators below the 50 level on RSI and on the Ultimate Oscillator would constitute a sell signal, overall...
Interesting move by Charlie Sheen.
It's being reported by Alex Jones that Charlie Sheen is going to try to engage President Obama in a dialogue about 9/11. A very gutsy tactic, I hope he has some success. Even if the government didn't cause 9/11, I have read numerous reports about various foreign intelligence agencies giving the U.S. warnings about it, months in advance. There's quite a bit being hidden, incompetence at the very least.
Sunday, September 6, 2009
Max Kaiser and Stacy Herbert dissect current econo-politics
Max Kaiser is sort of a comedy act with high academic and vocational credentials, and his sidekick Stacy Herbert is the stabilizer in this duo... Max rants intelligently, you always learn something when he rants, but it's full of dark humor. It has to be this way to match the world we are now living in...
Was that a good introduction? I don't know, it was meant to be, though...
http://ia311036.us.archive.org/3/items/MaxKeiserRadio-TheTruthAboutMarkets-05September2009/tam050909.mp3
I find myself laughing through much of Max and Stacy's broadcasts even if I feel a little guilty afterwards...give it a try....
Their main site is here:
http://maxkeiser.com/
Lots of interesting market and economic commentary, woven in with European flavored existential awareness.
Was that a good introduction? I don't know, it was meant to be, though...
http://ia311036.us.archive.org/3/items/MaxKeiserRadio-TheTruthAboutMarkets-05September2009/tam050909.mp3
I find myself laughing through much of Max and Stacy's broadcasts even if I feel a little guilty afterwards...give it a try....
Their main site is here:
http://maxkeiser.com/
Lots of interesting market and economic commentary, woven in with European flavored existential awareness.
Friday, September 4, 2009
An interesting comment from Karl Denninger...
As some of you know, I have linked to Karl Denninger's site from time to time. I happened to send him an email asking him why he believed the official 9/11 story was all there was. His reply was, well, like this:
You're dead wrong Mark.
Another nut for the ban list.
This is what you get when you ask a close minded person, to "open up" a little.
I didn't make any wild assertions, just asked if he saw any inconsistencies in the official story.
He is still a very astute observer, worth reading, but he has issues....
Don't bother emailing him, he rejects all mail as spam (you can get around it, once only)...I've never seen anyone who is 'public' in his sense do that either...
You're dead wrong Mark.
Another nut for the ban list.
This is what you get when you ask a close minded person, to "open up" a little.
I didn't make any wild assertions, just asked if he saw any inconsistencies in the official story.
He is still a very astute observer, worth reading, but he has issues....
Don't bother emailing him, he rejects all mail as spam (you can get around it, once only)...I've never seen anyone who is 'public' in his sense do that either...
the current market
As of noon today CST, he $NDX and the $SPX have both rallied up to Fibonacci points of .618 and .500 retraces of their decline from 8/28. The $SPX also has overhead resistance from a previous bottom at around 1015 or so..This could be where they stop and resumes their declines but we must watch cautiously here...
The Global system..what it's evolving towards...
This series describes pretty well what is already happening, and shows, I think where the future lies...
http://www.theglobalist.com/StoryId.aspx?StoryId=7962
http://www.theglobalist.com/StoryId.aspx?StoryId=7958
http://www.theglobalist.com/storyid.aspx?StoryId=7965
Parts 1,2, and 3 linked above...
Thursday, September 3, 2009
The rise of 'scarcity industrialism'
As if things couldn't get worse for the U.S., which hopes 'green jobs' will restore it's industrial core, here's the truth: We haven't got the resource base to do this.
China supplies most of the world's rare earth minerals that makes much of high-tech possible. They've been selling most of their output to us, but that's about to change.
This article is a bit long, but well worth the trouble to read in it's entirety.
http://www.energybulletin.net/50020
It sucks to be us....
China supplies most of the world's rare earth minerals that makes much of high-tech possible. They've been selling most of their output to us, but that's about to change.
This article is a bit long, but well worth the trouble to read in it's entirety.
http://www.energybulletin.net/50020
It sucks to be us....
Current $SPX chart...
The horizontal dashed lines are Fibonacci retracements, so the market is reacting to both an exponential downsloping trendline and the .382 retracement, and proximaty to a .500 node.
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
Get ready for more bank giveaways, er..., bailouts...
A friend of mine from Bartlesville, Oklahoma supplied me with this link:
http://trueslant.com/matttaibbi/2009/09/01/bailout-propaganda-begins/
http://trueslant.com/matttaibbi/2009/09/01/bailout-propaganda-begins/
I also am starting a parallel blog on BullBear.com
I am posting basically the same content on BullBear.com. No decision yet whether I'll maintain two of these indefinitely or not, or consolidate back to one...but for now, I will be in both places...
A few technical comments...
Adding to the bearish viewpoint, the weekly MACD on $VIX has crossed over, and the $SPX has fallen through the 'blue' trendline I drew the other day.
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
The list of banks going to be hammered by bad Commercial Real Estate
Here is a list of banks, whose stocks could be eminently short-able...
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/bank-holding-companies-ranked-by-commercial-real-estate-loans/
This shows listed exposure to commercial real estate sorted from the greatest exposure to the least...
Given that this sector is beginning to have real problems, this is a list to watch..
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/bank-holding-companies-ranked-by-commercial-real-estate-loans/
This shows listed exposure to commercial real estate sorted from the greatest exposure to the least...
Given that this sector is beginning to have real problems, this is a list to watch..
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