This chart is one of the sources for my call yesterday that the market might falter here...You can see which trendline has held so far, it's highlighted in orange and the tops of the last few days are banging against it. These trendlines are generated from the start and end points of the October 2007 through March 2009 decline...this is a shorter term basis then some of the other ones I've published here. They can be violated, but I give them the benefit of the doubt until they are.
4 comments:
October 2007 through March 2009 decline:
I am using the following for Start, 'A', 'C':
10/11/07 03/17/08 03/06/09
1576.09 1256.98 666.79
Are you using the same?
On regress2_$SPX spreadsheet I am seeing on 1.382 Crossover that Price is banging up against 1.382 Growth Trend Line during the last 5-6 data points.
Now does that equate to the Price hitting the Orange Trend line in your chart - are they one and the same?
Hi Bill,
Yes, I think that's exactly what that is. I did use those dates and prices...I think it was the 1.382 base for sure. Although I thought it was the 1.382 decline trendline rather than the growth trendline.
Here are some data pairs for that trendline, see if they match yours:
9/14/09 1098.04
9/15/09 1095.48
9/16/09 1092.93
9/17/09 1090.39
Mark
Mark: Hope I am thinking right on this, as I am in a learning curve, and is still rather confusing.
Growth and Decay - may be a problem with how I am using that terminology?
The Blue 1.382 Growth is actually declining (decay) on the 1.382 Crossover. This is due to the Start being higher than the end of 'C'?
Am I thinking right????
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Your four data points 09/14 - 09/17. They all hit progressive highs intraday.
StockCharts show these as:
Close High
09/14/09 - 1049.34 / 1049.74
09/15/09 - 1052.63 / 1056.04
09/16/09 - 1068.76 / 1068.75
09/17/09 - 1065.49 / 1074.77
In my data, I don't use any of these dates. I have:
09/02/09 994.75 low
09/22/09 1071.66 high
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To see the value of 1.382 Growth and Decay, I would need to move across right from the dates, under the Highs and Lows, locate under the 1.382 Basis, the Growth and Decay values, for those specific dates, to determine the value of the Trend Line?
Going to send this in email, too, as here may be a follow-up?
Bill,
both of your suppositions are correct...'Start' being higher then 'C' will invert the functionality of the growth and decay curves....I haven't thought of better way to label them, but I'm glad you have reminded me of this, I need to include that fact in my documentation.
"To see the value of 1.382 Growth and Decay, I would need to move across right from the dates, under the Highs and Lows, locate under the 1.382 Basis, the Growth and Decay values, for those specific dates, to determine the value of the Trend Line?"
Yes, that's correct....
Mark
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