Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Still waiting on miss market...


You can see here the negative divergence on the Nasdaq breadth indicator $NASI compared to the $NDX, shown by the dashed, thick black line, and the two recent node hits given by the vertical red dashed lines on 12/28/09 and 1/08/10, and also all of the recent places where RSI on this breadth indicator peaked. These were usually at least short term tops. Though that's true, today didn't resolve anything...

Friday, January 15, 2010

Another interesting timing clue...

I don't need a chart to say this, the amount of time that the $NDX has spent rallying from the March '09 lows, as of 1/08/10, was exactly .618% of the duration of the crash from Oct '07 to that March low. We are only a few trading days beyond that, so it would still qualify as a Fibonacci turn if the markets broke down here. This is in addition to the exponential nodes we have just seen hit over the last two and a half weeks. So things are not happy today in the markets, and it bears watching, as change could be coming....

Thursday, January 14, 2010

Market Manipulation 101

Check out this post on Yelnick, which summarized, says that all of the gains in the stock market in this rally have been made on just 30 Mondays. No kidding.

http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2010/01/vampire-market-all-the-action-is-at-night.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+PlanetYelnick+%28Planet+Yelnick%29

And then I (along with a lot of other people) get this email today from a professional pit trader (Larry Levine), who has a free newsletter he produces, in which he talks about an event yesterday that raised eyebrows in the trading pits. Some of his comments:

What happened at 12:03pm Eastern Time? There were no reports out, the 10-YR Note auction wasn't until 12pm, and the S&P500 was a bit stonewalled just under 1137.00 after a rally from the day's low. As the market advanced slowly through the congestion it hit: a MASSIVE order, or series of orders, lifted the offer in the e-minis. But it wasn't your garden variety large order of 2,000 mini's - I'm talking about 114 times that size.

At 11:03am today at the Chicago Board of Trade (12:03pm EST) over a quarter of a million mini-S&P500 orders traded north of 1137.00! (228,000 last count)

Could this be real I wondered? Was it some sort of computer malfunction that added too many zeros to the reported, yet smaller, trades?

No, that's not what happened. In fact, a bit of a hullabaloo occurred around my trading booth on the floor of the CBOT as many locals, brokers, and compliance members stared at the aforementioned volume chart in disbelief. As it turns out, all of the trades were indeed valid. None were busted. Moreover, as one of the compliance members told me, he saw the trades listed sequentially (1,000 or 2,000 lot orders) and they all occurred with milliseconds of one another until the massive order was completed.

This order size takes a SERIOUS bankroll to get done. If you are wrong by one-point on a 228,000 lot ES order, you can say goodbye to $11,400,000.00. If you contemplate this size your margin requirement is $1,282,500,000.00, while the notional value is $12,961,800,000.00.

Has a new "playha" hit the scene? Is his nickname "Helicopter?" Has high frequency trading (HFT) taken root in the mini-S&P in a huge way?

Of course by 'Helicopter' he means Ben Bernanke and the Govt. Talk about rigged markets, it sure looks that way...

Monday, January 11, 2010

Another clue...


You see the that the VXN has popped below it's Bollinger Bands. Exhaustion gap for the VXN? Could be...
The VIX looks the same way...

Another warning, from the Russell 2000



To the two nodes overlapping on the $NDX at the end of December, we now add another 1.00 exponential node on the Russell 2000. So we now have a cluster of nodes on two indexes over a fairly tight time frame relative to the long time periods that spawned them. This is again suggesting trend change is in the cards in the not to distant future.

Sunday, January 10, 2010

How the Teamsters Beat Goldman Sachs

I found this link over at the Max Keiser blog (you all should visit there, great site), it looks like the teamsters have the muscle and resources to beat the Goldman boys at their own game.

http://www.counterpunch.org/andrew01082010.html

But this is line with a prediction made recently (check posts from a few days ago) that various groups would start to do battle soon over a shrinking pie. This was resolved 'politely', but that may not happen as often as the Bear market proceeds...

It's also clear from this that Goldman is the 'grim reaper', both predator and parasite, as it routinely makes bets against viable firms, brings them down, and then pockets big profits from the unwarranted destruction of these same firms. Totally treasonous, criminal.

Saturday, January 9, 2010

Funding and the patriotism test

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0306069c-fbb4-11de-9c29-00144feab49a.html?nclick_check=1

Bankers are worried that they might have to factor 'revolt of the people' into their estimates of a country's debt repayment success....

A related article suggests that many large banks are now worried about sovereign debt risk, and what would be the outcome if a major western country went into default. These banks rarely carry debt default insurance (which is nothing more then some of those loathsome, credit default swaps) on the government bonds of major countries since these carry a 'triple A' credit rating. But if such an event were to occur, it's not clear that they could buy or carry enough insurance to cover it, anyway. Thus it suggests huge losses for the players involved.

I personally would suspect that they are really worried about a cascading meltdown of the whole derivatives market, which would bring down the whole global economic system. The article doesn't explicitly say this, but I can read between the lines here...


Class Warfare American Style

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/01/class-warfare.html

Thursday, January 7, 2010

Watching today's $NDX weakness...

Remember that we had the mathematical event of two major nodes overlapping on the 28th of December. That did not mean the top of the market had to be on that day (although sometimes that will happen), only that an internal condition for market psychology should turn on that date. We are still very much in the shadow of that event, and a major decline could start at any time. It was slightly unnerving to see the market rally somewhat after that date, and of course, the market can do anything it wants, but on probabilities, two nodes and a slight trendline breach are pretty strong bearish warnings for the $NDX. I am also seeing a fair amount of negative divergences in most indexes. So still, we are waiting for confirmation that the bear has returned...

Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

$NDX Micro charts


Right now the $NDX looks like a breakout is occuring, although one good down day could negate this. The bears best shot comes with the $SPX charts, where major trendlines are being hit right about now. If the $SPX swooned it would bring the other indexes back down with it. That said, it's all speculation. It will be puzzling if the $NDX shrugs off two overlapping nodes and an important trendline. If it can do that, and the $SPX continues up as well, then we have a pretty damn strong market here. The sentiment figures show lots of complacency here.. I wouldn't think anyone would get too involved with this market at this point. The $SPX has a P/E ratio of 151! Kind of scary...

$SPX charts Micro and Macro


Tuesday, December 29, 2009

The most recent 50 visitors, where are they from?


If I wanted to pay for the privilege, I can plot the most recent 1000, which makes a denser map, but this is O.K., kind of fun....Some big cities have more than one of my readers represented here...On slow days I sometimes check this a few times a day and watch the patterns change.....

I saw the film 'AVATAR' last night...dazzling...must see...

I highly recommend this film. The special effects are amazing, but the story is very appropriate, speaking to the issues of Empire, and the effect it has on people both within it and outside of it. I don't want to give you a dry review, and I will say to you, it will tug at your soul in a very unique way. You must see this...you owe it to yourself...

Market Surprise for 2010?

http://www.howestreet.com/articles/index.php?article_id=11976

Everything that can be said about the truth....


http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/geo/pastanalysis/2009/1218.html

Sunday, December 27, 2009

The coming fierce political infighting among Elites...

Note that the author lays the groundwork for this conclusion in the unavoidable decline in tax revenues one would expect when you bring on a whole slew of new taxes in the midst of an economic decline. This is already what we're seeing in discussions occurring from the national level, to the state and city/county levels. With tax levels falling, from both voluntary and involuntary withdrawal of players from an out of control, unfair economic/political system, the Elites and other 'protected' groups begin to 'go after' and cannibalize each other's revenue streams....

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogdec09/2010trends12-09.html

Friday, December 25, 2009

Debt clock ...

Forwarded to me by Bill Stockwell...very neat...

His comments:

Amounts are continually updated.
When you first look at the website, it is rather overwhelming,
but as you scroll across the screen, many of the numbers
represented there are referenced in the investment and news articles.

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

It's amazing how sanguine we've become about how these numbers are rolling up and increasing....

A couple of nodes overlapping on Monday, the 28th of December...




Looking at the bottom chart we have a set of overlapping nodes ( a .5000 and a 1.000) on December 28th relative to the A-B-C patterns I have labeled. This is only occurring on the $NDX, nothing similar is happening on the $SPX. The $NDX chart (the one in the middle), though is more interesting anyway, as it looks like that index is attempting a breakout through the trendline that has contained it. Where it stands at the moment, it has not yet achieved a confirmed breakout, as that happens only after a little more penetration then what's shown here. So the stage is possibly set for a resolution of the question of what's happening next. If the market doesn't reverse on Monday or perhaps Tuesday, we're probably going quite a bit higher for sure, but if it does reverse, then the existing trendline and the combined .5000 and 1.000 nodes would presumably been active, and the Bearish case will come to the fore. Remember also that the $SPX has been, and is still under, a Bearish warning state for quite a while now...Now we wait and see how it resolves....

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Hitting the roof again...

The $NDX is still bouncing along the underside of this light green ascending trendline...

Monday, December 21, 2009

The Most Dangerous Thoughts ever produced by Man....

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5122859998068380459#

What kind of intellectual quest could drive four of the greatest thinkers of the last 100 years (in mathematics and philosophy) to obsession, then madness, and then finally premature death (suicide)? What does the consequences of their quest, tell us about mathematics, logic, certainty, and what it means to be a human being?


Extraordinary documentary by the BBC....

Saturday, December 12, 2009

$SPX and $NDX Macro Trendlines.





The $NDX chart at the top shows the current price action 'skewered' like a shish-ka-bob on one of the trendlines (dark green, upsloping)...it's really the microtrendlines I have been showing in previous posts that seems to be controlling the upside on this index. The $SPX, on the other hand, is topside limited by it's 'macro', longer time derived trendlines, and you can see it's still reasonably close to one of it's .500 nodes (center image). We're still under a 'Bearish warning' condition, and all the more so with the dollar strengthening...

Friday, December 11, 2009

Thursday, December 10, 2009

A small bounce yesterday off of the lower trendline of the $SPX...


Which takes the $NDX up back up to it's over-head trendline...Monotonous...Boring... We need the dollar rally to get legs, so we can break this endless pattern...

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Dollar rally continues...markets weaken...




Notice that on the Microtrendlines chart, the $NDX did manage to strike the trendline (barely), but has formed a small double top...

A time to be alert...If the dollar rally gets real legs, the markets will crumble...

I've been anticipating this for about 3 months, but we still need verification....all eyes on the dollar...


I've added the $SPX Microtrendlines chart and show it's current decline, just starting, has already about hit the supporting trendline. So we are at an interesting juncture, the $NDX has strong resistance overhead, and the $SPX has strong support just beneath. I doubt these two markets will diverge sharply, or for very long, so the next few days may end the gridlock as one index, or the other, has to break through it's current controlling trendline. Since complacency is fairly high, and risk tolerance is waning, I still vote for 'down' as the direction this will go....

Monday, December 7, 2009

Tea Party tops GOP on Three-Way Generic Ballot

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/december_2009/tea_party_tops_gop_on_three_way_generic_ballot

Suggests that a sea change in public opinion is under way, and that Republicans may benefit only marginally from Obama's poor performance. I would guess that some Democrats will eventually be disenchanted with Obama as the recovery devolves into another crisis. It's not clear that 'ideologically' they will join the independents and conservatives, however...

A little negative divergence starting to show up...


But no point in getting excited...yet..Many commentators are becoming whipsawed trying to divine some sense out of the dollar's one day wonder on Friday, and the hard core Elliott Wavers are trying to interpret every little squiggle in the indexes, of which there have been many over the past three months, with very little resolution as to trend. This is very much a waiting game now, there are some divergences, we'll just have to see how they play out.

Saturday, December 5, 2009

Updated $NDX microtrendlines.


Still showing what looks to me like potential weakness as trendline is approached...

Thursday, December 3, 2009

Today's down day was interesting...


But what we'll look for is whether we have follow through tomorrow...notice that unlike the previous hits of the green trendline, this failure of the $NDX was a lighter strike. Weakness?

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

Macro $SPX charts




The $SPX is still contained by at least one trendline (light brown) although it should be noted that this is a rising trendline...which is why the market has been able to churn slightly higher. Reversals can still take place off of rising trendlines though. The current node value is .51693, still not too far from a perfect .50000. Since .51693/.50000 = 1.03386, we are then 3.386% away from ideal, still not badly off. We are not out of range of this node generally until we have reached about .53000 or so....

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

The bankruptcy of the United States is now certain


http://www.thedailycrux.com/content/3455/Porter_Stansberry


Excerpt:

When governments go bankrupt it's called "a default." Currency speculators figured out how to accurately predict when a country would default. Two well-known economists - Alan Greenspan and Pablo Guidotti - published the secret formula in a 1999 academic paper. That's why the formula is called the Greenspan-Guidotti rule. The rule states: To avoid a default, countries should maintain hard currency reserves equal to at least 100% of their short-term foreign debt maturities. The world's largest money management firm, PIMCO, explains the rule this way: "The minimum benchmark of reserves equal to at least 100% of short-term external debt is known as the Greenspan-Guidotti rule. Greenspan-Guidotti is perhaps the single concept of reserve adequacy that has the most adherents and empirical support."

So how does America rank on the Greenspan-Guidotti scale? It's a guaranteed default.

Goldman Staff Packing Pistols to Defend Against Peasants

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/12/goldman-senior-staff-packing-pistols-to-defend-against-peasants.html

$SPX and $NDX microtrendlines...


Thursday, November 19, 2009

O.K. Some kind of top was verified today with the decline...


Remember that the 17th and 18th were Fibonacci nodes..it looks like there's a chance that worked...A few more days should tell us what's what...

As usual the $NDX Microtrendlines were followed quite faithfully....

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

$Russell 2000 analysis




Note that the recent top exists at one of the lesser but occasionally important .75 nodes (bottom chart). This would have less meaning if the $SPX wasn't at a major .500 node. Together they reinforce the idea that a top here is probable. Time will tell....

How The Great Recession Will Transform America

http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2009/11/how-the-great-recession-will-transform-america.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+PlanetYelnick+%28Planet+Yelnick%29

Saturday, November 14, 2009

$NDX 'Macro' and 'Micro' trendlines...





Notice the interesting difference here between the $NDX and the $SPX. In the bottom graph here, which I'm calling the $NDX 'Micro' trendlines, this is where the price action is contained. The two top graphs look as though the 'Macro' trendlines have been exceeded and are therefore no longer working. This is the reverse situation from the $SPX in the earlier post below....

$SPX 'Macro' and 'Micro' trendlines...





Not a lot of change from 4 days ago, really....

In this case, the Micro trendlines (bottom chart) are at or beyond their limits, it is the bigger and older sourced 'macro' trendlines (top two charts) that are probably containing this...

Friday, November 13, 2009

The market is declining a bit...is this the real deal? Is the Bear back?

After today's action I will redo the charts, see what it looks like...Remember, we are looking for 5 wave declines, rather than '3's....Probably by next week we might have some idea...

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Exponential Trendlines and Nodes, seeds from 10/2002 through 10/2007 - $SPX



Haven't shown these for a while, these exponential trendlines are of a larger order and presumably more resilient then the micro trendlines I've been showing lately. These confirm the topping action suggested by other methods/ indicators. Note the .500 time node we happen to be at in the bottom chart... That's one of the important warnings in this system of trend change...

Russell 2000 non-confirmation with DOW


The non-confirmation by the current top of the Russell 2000 compared to the Blue-Chip Dow industrials, shows that risk appetites are collapsing...

I've had computer problems..back now...

Hello I'm back...Yesterday's rally was a bit of an eye opener...My computer has been giving me fits for about a day, I have reloaded it and am operational again...The power of this last day's rally was surprising, volume was respectable, as was the point gain. I would assume short covering had much to do with it. No fatal damage has been done to the Bear case, but obviously, another couple of days like this one could change things significantly. The dollar is still involved with this, and today it hit support (again) at just below 75.0 or so. That support has to hold if the Stock market is to decline...

Thursday, November 5, 2009

If we are forming the right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern on both indexes, here are the trendlines to watch....




On the $SPX the highlighted green trendline will be at 1074.72 and for the $NDX the highlighted orange trendline will be at 1727.02. Both trendlines will normally be exceeded slightly before they will stop the advance. If they are exceeded by too much, then obviously something different is happening, and the markets have apparently not really topped...

Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Looks like a nice wave 2 has happened, with a 50% retrace...



Now we wait over the next couple of days to see if wave 3 is really under way. (Technically, wave 3 of the bigger wave 3) Those of you who follow Elliott Wave will know what I mean, if not, go over to Daneric's site, he's a deep Elliott guy...

Saturday, October 31, 2009

Friday, October 30, 2009

Look at MACD on this weekly chart..Looks like crossover time for this indicator...Down we go....



Be careful here, we haven't yet gotten through the support as seen on the Microtrendlines chart of a couple of days ago, we could bounce here again and form the right shoulder of a head and shoulder pattern...So the big decline might be a little ways off..

The other point of view is represented by Dab Basch who still sees an imminent crash. He has updated his charts from last week, you can see them here:

http://www.safehaven.com/article-14888.htm

Fall of the Republic....

http://spywitnessnews.org/content/fall-republic-hq-full-length-version-2009

If you haven't seen this, you need to...predicts the future reasonably well......

Also a lot of unique information is presented, volunteered by brave individuals within local and state governments...This alone is worth seeing as a tribute to the people who took the risks to provide it.

The little rally is obviously over....

After another notch down, I'll do some new charts...as the decline progresses...

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Progressing down....







We are now approaching some intermediate scale trendlines, which I have highlighted. Today's low (so far) on the $SPX is almost on one now. Tomorrow or Friday could see a bounce as some indicators are getting oversold. The nature of any bounce that materializes will tell a great deal about the real condition of the market.

End of day update, replaced charts with updates showing today's final lows....

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

This is our future, if the Bankers have their way....

After the Billionaires Plundered Alabama Town, Troops Were Called in ... Illegally


http://www.alternet.org/workplace/143485/nightmare_in_america%253A_after_the_billionaires_plundered_alabama_town%252C_troops_were_called_in?page=1

Please, Gentle Readers, pass this story on to others, it's only through general awareness by the people that this kind of thing can be stopped....

Monday, October 26, 2009

Today's drop is just becoming apparent on this $SPX chart...




You can see the trendlines that I've highlighted that have to fail for the bear to fully come back...