Monday, August 4, 2008

Energy had rough ride today...




Like you all didn't notice that....Anyway the Bullish percent index which roared from oversold to "buy" territory last week (from below 20 at the bottom to over 30 is the general rule for that on P&F charts), collapsed today with prices back to it's starting point. The good news is the energy markets are still oversold. The bad news is that it has undone it's buy signal. Generally speaking one wouldn't expect this index to stay oversold real long without a more sustainable rally. Truth is though, it _could_ go down a bit more before it does so...Use your judgement here...

Another factor is the tropical storm Edouard, moving through the oil patch for the next couple of days...

P.S. I have added a chart from BigCharts showing one of their little known volatility indicators applied against Conoco Phillips, as a representative oil stock, and you can see the "slow" volatility indicator is showing readings consistent with a bottom...

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