Saturday, August 9, 2008
Some convergence between August 22-26..
Digging deeper into the $SPX and $NDX charts I posted earlier, there is a major node (1.0) on the $SPX, and a major Crossover on the $NDX, both happen in the range of 8/22/08 (Friday) through 8/26/08 (Tuesday). This could be the final top before all hell breaks loose...and the bear comes back in force...Keep these dates in mind...
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7 comments:
11 and 18th august aren't interesting possible turn dates any longer?
Your turn/top dates seem to be moving further.......
Hi guys, yes, I am moving the major targets further out. There are node convergences on the 11th, and a lot of Fibonacci overlaps around the 18th, and one or both of those could still be short term tops. But I think a more powerful set of convergences exist after the 22nd..
As the new data comes in, it will occasionally modify the targets..
Regards,
Mark L.
All,
Sometimes the determination of turn dates depends on whether the calculated .5 or 1.00 nodes are believed to be the "right" one (that ends the move). How to choose? Well, the ratio of the price spans embedded in the previous swing is often the best clue. When they differ markedly, it argues for the 1.00 node. When the difference is minor the ,500 node is usually the final swing date. The current situation is "between" so you have to look at other things to make a decision as to which will play out,and that unfolds over time...
Looking at Elliot wave , we could top soon, but also a week later...
It depends on the count your a using.
I do prefer the count were we will top this week, but also next week is possible.
Some fibonacci relations on the our chart do show up tomorrow late/tuesday early.
On the daily chart I do prefer the 13-18th august window as possible turning dates.
So tomorrow I will go short in Europe, and will see what happens, and take my losses if nothing happens.
Mark, what's your upside target on SP500 at the current rally top, and downside for the next bear cycle after that top? Thanks
I am not sure if my itchy hand can wait till Aug 22. I see that the rally in the last 2 days coincide with China stock plunging and USD launching to orbit. Seems like hot money flowing back here?!
SP1320 target has been printed all over the net, and I wonder if there is any chance we can ever reach there.
Hi Shawn and others,
If I assume the Blue downsloping line is providing the resistance, that will stop the move, on 8/25/08 it is at a value of about 1324, which is above the 50% retrace for the $SPX.
Knowing that trendlines work best after they are slightly exceeded, I would look to the .618 retrace as likely...All of this assumes that the blue trendline does it's thing.....
Regards,
Mark L.
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