$VIX monthly - Note the 'just completed' candlestick for October, and the indicators....
Saturday, October 31, 2009
For another view of things, here's the monthly $VIX chart...
$VIX monthly - Note the 'just completed' candlestick for October, and the indicators....
Friday, October 30, 2009
Look at MACD on this weekly chart..Looks like crossover time for this indicator...Down we go....
Be careful here, we haven't yet gotten through the support as seen on the Microtrendlines chart of a couple of days ago, we could bounce here again and form the right shoulder of a head and shoulder pattern...So the big decline might be a little ways off..
The other point of view is represented by Dab Basch who still sees an imminent crash. He has updated his charts from last week, you can see them here:
http://www.safehaven.com/article-14888.htm
Fall of the Republic....
http://spywitnessnews.org/content/fall-republic-hq-full-length-version-2009
If you haven't seen this, you need to...predicts the future reasonably well......
Also a lot of unique information is presented, volunteered by brave individuals within local and state governments...This alone is worth seeing as a tribute to the people who took the risks to provide it.
If you haven't seen this, you need to...predicts the future reasonably well......
Also a lot of unique information is presented, volunteered by brave individuals within local and state governments...This alone is worth seeing as a tribute to the people who took the risks to provide it.
The little rally is obviously over....
After another notch down, I'll do some new charts...as the decline progresses...
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Progressing down....
We are now approaching some intermediate scale trendlines, which I have highlighted. Today's low (so far) on the $SPX is almost on one now. Tomorrow or Friday could see a bounce as some indicators are getting oversold. The nature of any bounce that materializes will tell a great deal about the real condition of the market.
End of day update, replaced charts with updates showing today's final lows....
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
This is our future, if the Bankers have their way....
After the Billionaires Plundered Alabama Town, Troops Were Called in ... Illegally
http://www.alternet.org/workplace/143485/nightmare_in_america%253A_after_the_billionaires_plundered_alabama_town%252C_troops_were_called_in?page=1
Please, Gentle Readers, pass this story on to others, it's only through general awareness by the people that this kind of thing can be stopped....
http://www.alternet.org/workplace/143485/nightmare_in_america%253A_after_the_billionaires_plundered_alabama_town%252C_troops_were_called_in?page=1
Please, Gentle Readers, pass this story on to others, it's only through general awareness by the people that this kind of thing can be stopped....
Monday, October 26, 2009
Today's drop is just becoming apparent on this $SPX chart...
You can see the trendlines that I've highlighted that have to fail for the bear to fully come back...
Saturday, October 24, 2009
Friday, October 23, 2009
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Clearly, we've made some kind of top (again).
Later on, probably tonight, I'll update all of he charts...
Well, an update. Today was a rally day after all, so no proof of a top yet...
Well, an update. Today was a rally day after all, so no proof of a top yet...
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Drafter of 9/11 official government report now reveals it as a cover-up!
http://www.salem-news.com/articles/september112009/911_truth_9-11-09.php
Looks like the author, John J. Farmer Jr., was New Jersey Attorney General for quite a while, and even Governor of New Jersey, although very briefly.
Looks like the author, John J. Farmer Jr., was New Jersey Attorney General for quite a while, and even Governor of New Jersey, although very briefly.
Obama Poised to Cede US Sovereignty, Claims British Lord
http://fightinwordsusa.wordpress.com/2009/10/15/obama-poised-to-cede-us-soverignty-claims-british-lord/
The important excerpt from this site:
At [the 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference in] Copenhagen, this December, weeks away, a treaty will be signed. Your president will sign it. Most of the third world countries will sign it, because they think they’re going to get money out of it. Most of the left-wing regime from the European Union will rubber stamp it. Virtually nobody won’t sign it.
I read that treaty. And what it says is this, that a world government is going to be created. The word “government” actually appears as the first of three purposes of the new entity. The second purpose is the transfer of wealth from the countries of the West to third world countries, in satisfication of what is called, coyly, “climate debt” – because we’ve been burning CO2 and they haven’t. We’ve been screwing up the climate and they haven’t. And the third purpose of this new entity, this government, is enforcement.
How many of you think that the word “election” or “democracy” or “vote” or “ballot” occurs anywhere in the 200 pages of that treaty? Quite right, it doesn’t appear once. So, at last, the communists who piled out of the Berlin Wall and into the environmental movement, who took over Greenpeace so that my friends who funded it left within a year, because [the communists] captured it – Now the apotheosis as at hand. They are about to impose a communist world government on the world. You have a president who has very strong sympathies with that point of view. He’s going to sign it. He’ll sign anything. He’s a Nobel Peace Prize [winner]; of course he’ll sign it.
[laughter]
And the trouble is this; if that treaty is signed, if your Constitution says that it takes precedence over your Constitution (sic), and you can’t resign from that treaty unless you get agreement from all the other state parties – And because you’ll be the biggest paying country, they’re not going to let you out of it.
So, thank you, America. You were the beacon of freedom to the world. It is a privilege merely to stand on this soil of freedom while it is still free. But, in the next few weeks, unless you stop it, your president will sign your freedom, your democracy, and your prosparity away forever. And neither you nor any subsequent government you may elect will have any power whatsoever to take it back. That is how serious it is. I’ve read the treaty. I’ve seen this stuff about [world] government and climate debt and enforcement. They are going to do this to you whether you like it or not.
But I think it is here, here in your great nation, which I so love and I so admire – it is here that perhaps, at this eleventh hour, at the fifty-ninth minute and fifty-ninth second, you will rise up and you will stop your president from signing that dreadful treaty, that purposeless treaty. For there is no problem with climate and, even if there were, an economic treaty does nothing to [help] it.
So I end by saying to you the words that Winston Churchill addressed to your president in the darkest hour before the dawn of freedom in the Second World War. He quoted from your great poet Longfellow:
Sail on, O Ship of State!
Sail on, O Union, strong and great!
Humanity with all its fears,
With all the hopes of future years,
Is hanging breathless on thy fate!
This fellow, Lord Moncton, apparently got a standing ovation for his speech...
There is a 4 minute Youtube video of this speech on this site..you might want to watch it....
The important excerpt from this site:
At [the 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference in] Copenhagen, this December, weeks away, a treaty will be signed. Your president will sign it. Most of the third world countries will sign it, because they think they’re going to get money out of it. Most of the left-wing regime from the European Union will rubber stamp it. Virtually nobody won’t sign it.
I read that treaty. And what it says is this, that a world government is going to be created. The word “government” actually appears as the first of three purposes of the new entity. The second purpose is the transfer of wealth from the countries of the West to third world countries, in satisfication of what is called, coyly, “climate debt” – because we’ve been burning CO2 and they haven’t. We’ve been screwing up the climate and they haven’t. And the third purpose of this new entity, this government, is enforcement.
How many of you think that the word “election” or “democracy” or “vote” or “ballot” occurs anywhere in the 200 pages of that treaty? Quite right, it doesn’t appear once. So, at last, the communists who piled out of the Berlin Wall and into the environmental movement, who took over Greenpeace so that my friends who funded it left within a year, because [the communists] captured it – Now the apotheosis as at hand. They are about to impose a communist world government on the world. You have a president who has very strong sympathies with that point of view. He’s going to sign it. He’ll sign anything. He’s a Nobel Peace Prize [winner]; of course he’ll sign it.
[laughter]
And the trouble is this; if that treaty is signed, if your Constitution says that it takes precedence over your Constitution (sic), and you can’t resign from that treaty unless you get agreement from all the other state parties – And because you’ll be the biggest paying country, they’re not going to let you out of it.
So, thank you, America. You were the beacon of freedom to the world. It is a privilege merely to stand on this soil of freedom while it is still free. But, in the next few weeks, unless you stop it, your president will sign your freedom, your democracy, and your prosparity away forever. And neither you nor any subsequent government you may elect will have any power whatsoever to take it back. That is how serious it is. I’ve read the treaty. I’ve seen this stuff about [world] government and climate debt and enforcement. They are going to do this to you whether you like it or not.
But I think it is here, here in your great nation, which I so love and I so admire – it is here that perhaps, at this eleventh hour, at the fifty-ninth minute and fifty-ninth second, you will rise up and you will stop your president from signing that dreadful treaty, that purposeless treaty. For there is no problem with climate and, even if there were, an economic treaty does nothing to [help] it.
So I end by saying to you the words that Winston Churchill addressed to your president in the darkest hour before the dawn of freedom in the Second World War. He quoted from your great poet Longfellow:
Sail on, O Ship of State!
Sail on, O Union, strong and great!
Humanity with all its fears,
With all the hopes of future years,
Is hanging breathless on thy fate!
This fellow, Lord Moncton, apparently got a standing ovation for his speech...
There is a 4 minute Youtube video of this speech on this site..you might want to watch it....
Monday, October 19, 2009
Saturday, October 17, 2009
Thursday, October 15, 2009
$SPX micro trendlines
You might remember this chart from last week. Well, it broke through the trendline it was banging against, and ran up to this new one. Let's see what happens here.
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Todays charts
The markets gapped up today, and the dollar gapped down. This is what's happening. The dollar needs to find a bottom for the market to stop rising. I'm tempted to say the money printing is causing this. I monitor many other Technical analysis sites, and everybody's work says a top should be in here somewhere, in fact many have been expecting it for over two months now...
So, when so many methods by competent people are not confirming the market action but they confirm each other, then something is going on beyond normal market forces....
Just an update after market close, all of the major indexes except the $SPX have now got the Chaiken money flow going negative. That's usually associated with declines, I don't think I've ever seen much of a market advance under that condition.
The large bulge in the Chaiken money flow up to this point suggests a lot of accumulation, which might make a big decline difficult in the short term...
Monday, October 12, 2009
Martin Armstrong is probably right...
So who is Martin Armstrong? He's in jail for some kind of alleged fraud, I think. He is a former Wall Street insider type who claims he was victimized by the government for 'knowing to much' or something like that. In all honesty, I don't know enough about his case to evaluate his personal situation. But he has a kind of cycle theory, which has had some spectacular hits. His defenders have a website with some of his work, he publishes from prison. The link is here:
http://www.martinarmstrong.org/economic_projections.htm
Anyway, his next cycle turn date is a bottom, and it's due about 6/15/11.
It turns out that the move from October '07 to March '09, when extended out by 1.618, comes to that date, to the day.
I have found nodes that line up with it pretty well, and at least one more Fibonacci extension that also lines up, again, almost to the day.
Check out his link, it's interesting. He may have nailed where Elliot Wave '3' of this bear market will end, timewise...
In the lower chart shown, his prediction of 2011.45 aligns perfectly with the 'blue' 1.618 vertical line projection. You can check this out on a spreadsheet or calculator...
Saturday, October 10, 2009
Follow up on MLNX example using Fibonacci time ratios instead of Exponential Time Nodes
The vertical dashed lines (blue and red) are the core time spans, and the solid blue and red vertical lines shows the addition of that amount of time, so labeled, referenced and added to that original span. Different methods/systems, similar results...
Friday, October 9, 2009
A little example of how to use Exponential Time Nodes
Although I think stocks are really more risky than indexes, and I probably wouldn't have done this trade, here is how using nodes can be useful. Look at this chart:
Now if I wanted to know where 'the final bottom' was going to be, to play the next upside, first I might label all of the potential 'Start'-A-B-C patterns for calculations. See how this looks:
Now we pick up the dates and prices for these setups, remember we don't need the data for wave 'B' just 'Start', Wave 'A' and Wave 'C'.
Blue Labels:
Start : 04/02/07 13.70
Wave A : 07/23/07 23.12
Wave C : 10/23/07 24.85
Magenta Labels:
Start: 10/23/07 24.85
Wave A: 11/27/07 16.04
Wave C: 03/17/08 10.85
Red Labels:
Start: 03/17/08 10.85
Wave A: 04/02/08 14.88
Wave C: 06/05/08 17.47
Now we calculate the dates of the major nodes.(All 1.00 nodes, in this case)
Blue: 07/23/08, 11/18/08 , 09/03/09
Magenta: 08/25/08, 10/23/08, 02/27/09
Red: 09/12/08, 10/21/08, 01/16/09
Now we place them on a recent chart to see how they would have looked. Remember, we are looking ahead in time from when we would have done all of this, we wouldn't have known in advance about the rally from the lows...I'm just presenting to show how the nodes fit into the overall picture. Note that two nodes are almost on top of each other, at 10/21/08 and 10/23/08. That often happens at or near major turning points. This is what you look for.
Indicators, as always, are a help, and watching for a positive divergence helps show that the 11/18/08 date (blue vertical line) is preferred. The 10/21 and 10/23 cluster show no positive divergence on MACD, and you wouldn't want to enter a long position without that strong divergence.
The actual bottom was on 11/21/08, and the lowest price on that date was $6.02 a share.
Now if I wanted to know where 'the final bottom' was going to be, to play the next upside, first I might label all of the potential 'Start'-A-B-C patterns for calculations. See how this looks:
Now we pick up the dates and prices for these setups, remember we don't need the data for wave 'B' just 'Start', Wave 'A' and Wave 'C'.
Blue Labels:
Start : 04/02/07 13.70
Wave A : 07/23/07 23.12
Wave C : 10/23/07 24.85
Magenta Labels:
Start: 10/23/07 24.85
Wave A: 11/27/07 16.04
Wave C: 03/17/08 10.85
Red Labels:
Start: 03/17/08 10.85
Wave A: 04/02/08 14.88
Wave C: 06/05/08 17.47
Now we calculate the dates of the major nodes.(All 1.00 nodes, in this case)
Blue: 07/23/08, 11/18/08 , 09/03/09
Magenta: 08/25/08, 10/23/08, 02/27/09
Red: 09/12/08, 10/21/08, 01/16/09
Now we place them on a recent chart to see how they would have looked. Remember, we are looking ahead in time from when we would have done all of this, we wouldn't have known in advance about the rally from the lows...I'm just presenting to show how the nodes fit into the overall picture. Note that two nodes are almost on top of each other, at 10/21/08 and 10/23/08. That often happens at or near major turning points. This is what you look for.
Indicators, as always, are a help, and watching for a positive divergence helps show that the 11/18/08 date (blue vertical line) is preferred. The 10/21 and 10/23 cluster show no positive divergence on MACD, and you wouldn't want to enter a long position without that strong divergence.
The actual bottom was on 11/21/08, and the lowest price on that date was $6.02 a share.
Negative Divergence...
Look at what happened the previous time(s)...If that happens again, I think 9/23/09 will stand as the final top...
Yelnick- Aborted Run on the Dollar?
http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2009/10/aborted-run-on-the-dollar.html
This makes perfect sense to me....
This makes perfect sense to me....
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Goldman Sachs gets into Canadian Media...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/why-goldman-advising-canwest-its-programming-line
Makes you wonder what else they're programming, and through what outlets?
Makes you wonder what else they're programming, and through what outlets?
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Shorter term Exponential trendlines - $SPX
This chart is one of the sources for my call yesterday that the market might falter here...You can see which trendline has held so far, it's highlighted in orange and the tops of the last few days are banging against it. These trendlines are generated from the start and end points of the October 2007 through March 2009 decline...this is a shorter term basis then some of the other ones I've published here. They can be violated, but I give them the benefit of the doubt until they are.
Tuesday, October 6, 2009
Monday, October 5, 2009
The slow death of the unified left...
http://peakenergy.blogspot.com/2009/09/slow-death-of-unified-left.html
The slow death of the unified left
Posted by Big Gav in politics, psychology
Excerpts:
The third contradiction is in the West, and it is the deforming effects that the political-economic system has on our culture. Uniquely in history, the contemporary west has made the cultural system subject to the economy, made it its market, raw material and dumping ground. For a century or more this process was held in check by conservative institutions, and, when these collapsed, through attacks by the counterculture, which (briefly) provided an alternative, something seemed to be in place until that offering also, collapsed. After that, the commodity and the commodified image moved to the center of social life. Since the commodity is essentially nihilistic – a commodity is simply something whose value is expressed in terms of every other value – its effect, initially liberating from inherited authority (the church, etc) is ultimately nihilistic too.
Socially, the effects of this are to create increasingly atomised societies, in which it is increasingly impossible to imagine solidarity or close connection beyond the immediate family - and then to offer as a substitute either a cynical and masochistic celebration of atomisation (ie most reality TV shows) or literal-minded religiosity, essentially channelled from the middle ages, ie from the last pre-capitalist period.
Psychologically, the effects are to create increasingly ungrounded people. If the society you grow up in is atomised, then an identity never ‘sets’. The liberation that offers is the freedom to determine your own identity. What it removes is the capacity for any identity to be meaningful.
The slow death of the unified left
Posted by Big Gav in politics, psychology
Excerpts:
The third contradiction is in the West, and it is the deforming effects that the political-economic system has on our culture. Uniquely in history, the contemporary west has made the cultural system subject to the economy, made it its market, raw material and dumping ground. For a century or more this process was held in check by conservative institutions, and, when these collapsed, through attacks by the counterculture, which (briefly) provided an alternative, something seemed to be in place until that offering also, collapsed. After that, the commodity and the commodified image moved to the center of social life. Since the commodity is essentially nihilistic – a commodity is simply something whose value is expressed in terms of every other value – its effect, initially liberating from inherited authority (the church, etc) is ultimately nihilistic too.
Socially, the effects of this are to create increasingly atomised societies, in which it is increasingly impossible to imagine solidarity or close connection beyond the immediate family - and then to offer as a substitute either a cynical and masochistic celebration of atomisation (ie most reality TV shows) or literal-minded religiosity, essentially channelled from the middle ages, ie from the last pre-capitalist period.
Psychologically, the effects are to create increasingly ungrounded people. If the society you grow up in is atomised, then an identity never ‘sets’. The liberation that offers is the freedom to determine your own identity. What it removes is the capacity for any identity to be meaningful.
Sunday, October 4, 2009
The saga of Hardin, Montana...
http://www.examiner.com/x-14766-Charleston-Ron-Paul-Examiner~y2009m9d30-Hardin-Montana-tip-of-the-iceberg
By the way, the head of the APF in Hardin, has had multiple felony convictions. The State Attorney General of Montana is now launching a full investigation...
By the way, the head of the APF in Hardin, has had multiple felony convictions. The State Attorney General of Montana is now launching a full investigation...
Friday, October 2, 2009
Exponential trendlines generated both from the October 2007 decline and the March 2009 rally.
Watch which trendlines it ends up respecting, that's the key...
The left edge of the diagram is at 3/6/09, and the rally, up until today, is shown...
I've added blue Fibonacci extension levels for projections off of Bear market Elliot Wave 1 down from the top of the rally...The red levels are projections downward of the rally itself from the rally top. Trendlines aside, there is some congruence between the 1.618 rally projection and the .786 Wave 1 projection....
Markets breaking down...
The nodes and trendlines have done their job...
Expect that we have a bounce here though...
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Both major indexes now sport a lower high and lower low...
The only question is whether we bounce out of this and work higher ( I doubt that, really)or drive lower under volume, somewhere in the next few days. I will have new charts out as soon as I think they have something new on them to see...
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