Friday, November 13, 2015

Thursday, November 12, 2015

Hyperinflation? Not likely.

You know, one thing I think won’t happen, is ‘all of those printed dollars coming back home’. Right now there are oversupplies of just about everything, and that will get worse in the coming months. The real crisis is about central banks creating artificial demand for several decades because the underlying technological paradigm has been rendering workers increasingly redundant. So you create bubbles in stocks or real estate to provide some additional economic activity. Or, bubbles in subprime, nonperforming car loans or subprime nonperforming educations. End result, we now have way to much real estate, too many cars, too many grads, too much junk bought on credit. What we don’t have, is a way to allocate consumption, as the link between REAL jobs and consumption is broken. People consume because the government is trying to keep all of those supply chains working, so they print or borrow capital to hand to the people in order to keep the delicate and complex production machinery working, which has nothing to do with keeping people alive, that’s just a (politically expedient) byproduct. Now that the true deflationary impact of technology can no longer be held back, those supply chains are indeed starting to crack. First goes the retailers, like Macy’s, Sears, etc. and even, yes, McDonalds. We are seeing it also at the other end of the manufacturing sequence, way upstream, in the collapse of mining, coal, oil, industrial metals, lumber. In between, manufacturers are feeling it too, Catapillar, being a bell whether stock, is going down. The whole industrial system is ‘deflating’, as aggregate demand collapses. People without real jobs and real incomes, just don’t have the purchasing power to maintain the system’s liquidity and continued operation. The cause, being the curse of manufacturing efficiency with labor disenfranchisement. So, countries that are holding treasuries and want to unload them face the uncomfortable fact that it’s hard to know what piece of real estate, what industrial property, what patent, whatever, will have any ‘income value’ in a structural, global, deflationary collapse. Though the Chinese have already unloaded a bunch of these to buy properties around the world, expect the pace of redemptions to slow dramatically as the outlines of the collapse become clearer. There is a better than even chance that almost all current possible investments from here on out will be under performing or non-performing for years, maybe decades. This means to me, that many of the U.S. Treasuries that are held by nations, at some point will be left unused, or when thought of as ‘money’, left unspent. Many will expire worthless at some point, as no one will have been able to figure out what a real asset was, over the time period they were still viable. That time period being, while the U.S. Government that printed and maintained them, still existed.

Tuesday, November 10, 2015

Why I created these mathematics, and this blog...

The attempt here is to find relationships, even in manipulated markets, that are so strong and inviolate that even the manipulators can't escape them. My belief is, the longer the pattern persists in time, the more difficult to change it. But that pattern must be embedded, and not in any way obvious. It has to have an unalterable psychological aspect, and be described by discoverable mathematics. This is what I've claimed to have done.

Saturday, November 7, 2015

Bitcoin's rise is just beginning. But here is why it stalled here, for now. It hit both a node (.75 or -1.0 depending on display choices), and an overhead trendline.

The '1.5' node on one chart and '0.0' node on the other (not shown, graph doesn't go out that far) both represent the same point in time (well into the future), as do the '.75' and '-1.0', where we are now. This rise should get out to a 1.0 or 1.5 node (middle chart) before it's all over and that's pretty far out in time. One caveat though, if governments start abolishing cash, they'll shut this down too. Watch for that, could really end the party early.

Sunday, November 1, 2015

I have an e-book out now for Apple and android devices from Smashbooks.

I'm only charging $0.99 for it. Has all the basic equations. It's been out before as a .pdf, the title is: "Elliott Wave Timing Beyond Ordinary Fibonacci Methods". Tried to think of a catchier title, but wanted to describe what it was. Couldn't figure out how to satisfy both needs. :}

Thought I should mention this.

I firmly believe that the charts I provide are for mostly academic interest. Use the information at your own risk. I now think we are in a trading environment where even if you are right, the game is still rigged against you. Wall Street is run by the shrewdest thieves in history, and they will be the undoing of all that is good in the world. So I see my charts as a set of warnings about specific traps, not so much as endorsements for one position or another.

Thursday, October 29, 2015

Finally, I now have completed some charts relative to the Dollar Index. I used Federal Reserve data for this series.

From top to bottom we are going from shorter time spans with less 'authority' to longer spans which have more. Studying these. you can see the current value of the Dollar Index relative to other currencies is at a confluence of nodes and overhead resistance. The second chart down from the top shows a 'pincer movement with a 'triangle' or 'wedge' forming between them. With bearish fundamentals and much overhead resistance, one might reasonably expect this index to break down, rather than up. That would be my guess. The current Financial news is grim, with rumours of a budget 'accident' around November 3 or 5th, according to Jack Lew. There are also wars and rumours of wars, with danger of engagement of Russian and American Forces near Syria. Then there's the curious docking of three Chinese Navy vessels in Florida at a time of Heightened tensions between China and the U.S. Very strange to say the least. Suspect by the end of November everything will be clearer. Not better perhaps, but clearer. If you are curious about what important pivot dates were used to calculate these graphs, just left, and then right click on each one and start to save them to your hard drive. Those dates are embedded in the .jpeg file name for each image. If for some reason we get through the next couple of months with nothing of importance happening to the dollar index,the next cluster of nodes of importance will be in the summer of next year. The dollar starts to break down either sometime pretty close, or next summer, looks to me.

Wednesday, October 14, 2015

Friday, October 9, 2015

O.K., A little higher.

Market trying to push higher, but at major resistance. Gained a little bit in the last two days.

Wednesday, October 7, 2015

Facing our mortality.

I'm not as active on this blog as I was several years ago. Having a bout with cancer makes you rethink your priorities. Perhaps I won't post often enough to keep regular followers as in the past. Maybe I'm just leaving a record behind for my own sense of having accomplished something, but I will post when the market changes enough to make a new chart worthwhile. I'm not as interested as I was in the political process or system, which used to generate a lot of commentary from me. That was a waste of time.

Probably at a small local top here, we've hit the regression line.