Friday, October 9, 2015

O.K., A little higher.

Market trying to push higher, but at major resistance. Gained a little bit in the last two days.

Wednesday, October 7, 2015

Facing our mortality.

I'm not as active on this blog as I was several years ago. Having a bout with cancer makes you rethink your priorities. Perhaps I won't post often enough to keep regular followers as in the past. Maybe I'm just leaving a record behind for my own sense of having accomplished something, but I will post when the market changes enough to make a new chart worthwhile. I'm not as interested as I was in the political process or system, which used to generate a lot of commentary from me. That was a waste of time.

Probably at a small local top here, we've hit the regression line.

Tuesday, September 1, 2015

Nothing terribly new to report market-wise, the rally has clearly fizzled, so the decline will continue probably towards a bottom in mid-October. I found this old bit of prose, good for the soul, so I post it here:

Saturday, August 22, 2015

CRASH 'TIL MID-OCTOBER No surprise, but the math suggests this goes on in fits and starts until around the 14th through 16th of October, then a (bear) market rally. I have no price targets yet...

Tuesday, August 18, 2015

More on Donald Trump... I think we’re all on knifes edges until the election in 2016, both with regard to collapse and war. Watch the election of Trump, I notice he’s in the same camp as Obama. What do I mean by that? I mean, he’s going after the NeoCons. He has openly mocked both Lindsay Graham and John McCain. He’s tearing holes in all of the NeoCon Republicans. He tearing holes in NeoCon Hillary. Obama, like Trump is a Rothschild agent, not in the Rockefeller/Bush/Clinton group. His parting shot as President against the other camp is to assist Trump in taking down Hillary. New York Post’s Edward Klein wrote on March 14th 2015 that sources told him it was Valerie Jarrett who leaked the details of Hillary’s criminal use of private email for official business. If you look out on the web, you’ll find that Obama and Bill Clinton ‘had it out’ on a golf course recently. One can guess what that was about. Trump is also in favour of the Iran arms deal, another anti-NeoCon position. This, even though both of his children are married to Israeli’s. So if we can avoid a NeoCon inspired war until President Trump takes office, then war becomes a much less likely option, after that point. I believe the ‘RESET’ has been put off because the balance of power between the Rothschild and Rockefeller faction is still precarious. It’s the Rockefeller/NeoCons that are fighting to maintain Hegemony, and trying to prevent the reset. Although I don’t buy into everything that Ben Fulford has to say, I think he’s right that the NeoCon faction is being taken down, but with considerable resistance. This is the Geopolitical reason why I think the revaluation of gold will wait a while, possibly until after the 2016 elections.
The Index XAU represents gold and silver. Many people expect it to bottom here, but though it may bounce, I expect it to follow the magenta line down to the single digits level. In this chart, timewise, it points to May of 2020, on another one, it points to later in that year. Either way, the bottom is a ways out.

Sunday, August 9, 2015

You know there’s a small chance that the U.S. has one small advantage over China in what’s coming. We haven’t had a ‘New Deal’ style spending program since Roosevelt, though Kennedy’s ‘New Frontier’ has been likened to a version of it. China has been doing intense infrastructure development for a while, a lot of ‘new’ cities, factories, etc. and is somewhat ‘overbuilt’, but the U.S. is ripe for a big makeover. The coming crash will make the Republican drive towards austerity moot, as it will come on it’s own with massive deflation, and defaults at several levels. Eventually new thinking will emerge, and the one thing that hasn’t been done here for a long time, internal infrastructure development, is an available option. So what if the world doesn’t want our dollars at that point? Globalism will be about dead anyway, as well as conspicuous consumption. Look at the Baltic Dry Index, or King Copper, or oil, nation states can no longer hope for reciprocal stimulation through trade. The global demand is just not there. So nations will just have to go internal for a while, clean up the mal-investment, and become more self sufficient in many areas as there won’t be any other options. I’m reminded of how Nazi Germany mobilized and found substitute materials and technology for things they were forbidden to buy due to sanctions put in after WWI. We certainly don’t want their political philosophy, but in a world were international trade is ‘frozen’, we will have to self-stimulate to recover, and there is a justification for it based on our depleted condition. This came to mind as I just read the new 10 dollar bill (is rumoured) will be issued with Eleanor Roosevelt on it. Why would the elites remind us of the Roosevelts just now? Maybe it’s a hint of things to come. Now I’m as mystified as anyone else as to what Donald Trump represents, but if you did want to do a ‘New Deal’ program in the U.S., the Republican party would have to be taken down considerably, as they would oppose such a program strenuously. Whether ‘The Trump’ is controlled opposition, or a genuine organic development, the hatchet job he is doing on the Republican party would be an essential prerequisite for this to happen.
Assuming we've topped in the $SPX, where and when does the model place the next important bottom? The next bottom of equal importance to the ones in 2002 and 2009, if the current topping process plays out, is at around 520 on the S&P 500 and the ideal date, is around 7/7/2021. That is the ideal date of course, and it might be ahead or behind that date by a few months. Price will be the more meaningful measure so when we get near 520, the bottom should be in.

Sunday, August 2, 2015

Like the German market, the $SPX showing signs of upward exhaustion, and hitting the 'zero' node, where most things go to die. There is a theory going around that Europe crashes first, and that money flows into U.S. stocks, buying some more price action, and time. Autumn will be interesting.

Monday, July 27, 2015

GERMAN MARKET REACHES EXHAUSTION. Here is the German DAX index. The Parabolic rise is somewhat exaggerated by the Methodology. The corrections are following the model's trendlines very well. On the X-axis, the time steps are fractal intervals, that I refer to as 'Nodes'. Along that axis, the end point is the last one, the 'zero' node. That's where markets reach exhaustion. Read the X-axis left to right, as a 'countdown', -4,-3,-2,-1, then zero.

Thursday, October 21, 2010

Feds fighting the market...hard..

Looking at the charts you see $VIX, most days lately, jumping up at the open and being forced back down over the course of the day....Same for the dollar, rallying and being forced back down. One gets the impression that the PPT is working overtime to hold things together until after the November elections. Then it's a new ball game...Things could go a bit feral after that...

Denninger: Tea Party, My Ass

Denninger: Tea Party, My Ass

Tea Party co-founder, Denninger, explains how tea party was corrupted....

Denninger makes the point that the movement has been hijacked away from questions of corruption in finance and government, and back to Guns, God, and Gays. Hardly new and hardly effective. I concur...

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

The Normalization of Sociopathology in America - Charles Hugh Smith

The moral rot at the center of American life results from a normalization of pathologies--sociopathic and psychopathic states and behaviors are now "normal" or incentivized. Moral behavior is institutionally punished.

The three social classes in America as described by Smith:

The "working class" is programmed to rely on television for most of its "information" about life, and thus they are programmed to:

1. Consume copious quantities of fast foods and convenience foods, and consider indolence a luxury. As a result, they are programmed to become obese/diabetic.

2. The boys are programmed to favor football and basketball in sports, service in the Armed Forces as the only viable choice to low-skill, fitful employment, to drop out of four-year college if pressured to enter, and vocational training, often paid for by the G.I. Bill after military service.

3. Males are programmed to place identity value on their vehicles and real-world "manly" skills (working on vehicles, farm equipment, woodworking, etc.), but their programmed aspirations are aimed at impossibly narrow fields: professional sports, hip-hop and other entertainment, etc. As a result, their real-world skills are generally undeveloped or modest.

In essence, they are programmed to fail in the "knowledge economy" and in real-world practical jobs which are not glorified by the broadcast media. They accept low-level work and are dissatisfied, often turning to drugs to relieve their ennui.

4. Their interests are channeled by the media into extreme sports, mixed martial arts, auto racing, football, etc., but they are programmed to express these interests through passive video games rather than by real-world experience. Programmed to low confidence, they generally give up quickly when faced with arduous training, except when forced by institutions such as the Military.

5. Working class families have few resources to draw upon, and the mobility favored by Corporate America has shredded the social networks which once offered support (church membership, social clubs, neighborhoods, etc.) Family "help" is a sofa to sleep on at a relatives' house.

6. The girls are programmed to have sex and children early, as motherhood has positive identity value, even if they are woefully unprepared for parenting. Career choices tend to be "pink collar" type labor in Corporate America's sickcare system or government jobs; females are programmed to support their children and demand little of the fathers. Dependency on the State /Welfare in one form or another is the norm.

7. Politics holds little interest and most of the working class are programmed not to vote as it "never does any good anyway."

8. There are few books or other reading materials around the house, little to no original decorative art, few musical instruments that can actually be played with any joy or expertise; the lived environment is a cultural desert. The TV and a computer offer distraction and entertainment and little else. If they pursue social media, they are members of My Space and Facebook. They are deeply attached to their cellphones, which are perceived as markers of accessible status. Passports are unknown; foreign travel is experienced through military service only.

The "middle class" aspires to the "upper class" life they see on television and other media, but their aspirations are for the trappings of wealth rather than for the engines of wealth.

1. Though the middle class person clings mightily to various totems of "membership" in the middle class, and experiences tremendous loss of identity and self-esteem when these totems are lost, in reality their wealth is modest and they have few family resources.

2. Though they watch a lot of TV, they also consume massive quantities of other low-value media through the electronic devices they see as emblematic of the "middle class" lifestyle: laptop computers, iPods, etc. Their cellphones and other electronics are key identity markers: the higher the status of the brand, the more valuable the device. Apple products are de riguer "high status."

3. Books and reading materials around the house tend to be best sellers or materials assigned in class; few households receive newspapers or magazines other than National Geographic. If books are read, they are genre books such as mysteries. Dog-eared copies of the Harry Potter series abound. Those households which aspire to "upper class" education may subcribe to a few magazines which are viewed as totems of high-class lifestyles: The New Yorker, Saveur, etc.

4. "Education" is valued but mastery is not; the goal is to obtain the certificate or paper required by gatekeepers in the government or Corporate America, not the actual skillsets. Though education is "valued," few households (regardless of income, which is often high) save religiously enough to fund university educations; borrowing vast sums of student loans is the norm. Adult education is pursued to obtain the same gatekeeper certificates in whatever field the adults toil in. Learning for the pleasure of learning is unknown or deemed a waste of time when "we could be having fun."

"Enrichment" classes are provided to the children, but the purpose is to gain a veneer of respectability as an aspirant to upper-class membership; piano lessons are dutifully offered but nobody plays music in the house for enjoyment, so the lessons are soon dropped. Live performances are also attended occasionally as "enrichment." Foreign travel is experienced via college programs or packaged tours fit into 2-week vacations allowed by Corporate America.

5. Favored sports include soccer and volleyball for the girls, and skateboarding and baseball for the boys. Team sports are favored over individual competition, and adults spend significant time ferrying kids to various after-school sports, which are deemed "character-building."

6. Ownership of status brands is highly important; brand consciousness is acute. Target is favored over Wal-Mart, and designer-luxury brand purses, shoes, autos, etc. are highly desirable "markers" of success and identity. Most of the family income goes to paying for these "markers" of membership.

7. A four-year college degree is the goal, with an MBA or master's degree considered a higher-level enabler of a better career. The cherished goal is acceptance to an elite university which is viewed as a magical ticket to "fast track" advancement in the government or Corporate America. Meritocracy is accepted as the norm. Military service is shunned in favor of attending college right out of high school. Favored social media are related to career/corporate advancement: LinkedIn, etc. Foreign films and chic dining are valued as "markers" of high-class status.

The upper class has the confidence born of the knowledge that the family resources can always bail one out. High-paying jobs will be provided via networks; art-aspirant careers are highly valued, and family resources enable dilletante dabbling in acting, film-making, visual arts, etc.

Entrance to prep schools and family money/connections enable entrance to institutions the middle class must gain entrance to via meritocracy.

Favored careers include venture capital, high-status government positions, management of family businesses, plum slots in NGOs, etc. Noblesse Oblige is served via membership on boards of charities, the local symphony and museum, etc. These networks provide connections to business opportunities unavailable to the middle class.

Children already get passports and foreign travel to exotic locales is standard. Middle-class aspirants are viewed paternalistically or with scorn; they are worker-bees for the Corporate America/State owned or managed by the upper class. The working class is avoided except as servants, who are often immigrants.

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

New Fronts Opening in Foreclosure Crisis: Criminial Investigation, Constitutional Probe Launched

New Fronts Opening in Foreclosure Crisis: Criminial Investigation, Constitutional Probe Launched

Apple finally rolls over...

The only two stocks holding up the Stock Market, Google and Apple, have failed to do their job today. Apple rolled over pretty hard and Google went flat. Don't see much upside potential for the markets at this point.

More evidence that the rally is finally over comes from ZeroHedge:

I won't post any excerpts, but you might want to go to the above link and read it. This is feeling in many ways like 2007-2008 all over again...but worse..

Bacteria ‘R’ Us - Miller McCune

Emerging research shows that bacteria have powers to engineer the environment, to communicate and to affect human well-being. They may even think.

A few scientists noticed in the late 1960s that the marine bacteria Vibrio fischeri appeared to coordinate among themselves the production of chemicals that produced bioluminescence, waiting until a certain number of them were in the neighborhood before firing up their light-making machinery. This behavior was eventually dubbed “quorum sensing.” It was one of the first in what has turned out to be a long list of ways in which bacteria talk to each other and to other organisms.
Some populations of V. fischeri put this skill to a remarkable use: They live in the light-sensing organs of the bobtail squid. This squid, a charming nocturnal denizen of shallow Hawaiian waters, relies on V. fischeri to calculate the light shining from above and emit exactly the same amount of light downward, masking the squid from being seen by predators swimming beneath them.
For their lighting services, V. fischeri get a protected environment rich in essential nutrients. Each dawn, the squid evict all their V. fischeri to prevent overpopulation. During the day, the bacteria recolonize the light-sensing organ and detect a fresh quorum, once again ready to camouflage the squid by night.

Monday, October 18, 2010

HOMEECONOMICS FINANCE DATA MARKETS BLOGROLLECONOMIC NEWS RSSE-mail On The Hypocrisy of Voters: The politics of economics redux


The results suggest that Americans’ perceptions of the government as a threat may be less dependent on broader, philosophical views of government power, and instead have more to do with who is wielding that power. Throughout the Bush administration, Democrats were more likely than Republicans to perceive the government as a threat. Now that a Democratic president is in office, the reverse is true.

Since 2003, when the question was first asked, independents’ views have been more consistent, although independents have been somewhat more likely to perceive the government as a threat since 2006 than they were before that year.

What does this tell you? Personally, I find it a bit disturbing. My take: People are hypocrites. People don’t have any defensible philosophical world view that they apply systematically. It depends on who is in power and whether one feels allied to power by part affiliation.

Tea Party Candidate Joe Miller’s Private Security Force Handcuff Reporter

Tea Party Candidate Joe Miller’s Private Security Force Handcuff Reporter

Sunday, October 17, 2010

Check out A Roadmap For the Next Couple of Weeks

I want you to take a look at: A Roadmap For the Next Couple of Weeks 


A thousand times worse than we thought!

One way of looking at this piece is that it suggests most real estate in the last 15 years has been securitized, meaning, that proper paperwork has not been filed, and if investigated, much of it doesn't have a clear owner.

This is dynamite, and suggests an eventual total hose up of the real estate industry..

that could last decades.