Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Good time for a short term energy trade..



While we are waiting for the general markets to "do something", a good short term trade is setting up on oil stocks. $BPENER has risen off of it's normal "very low" level, and several energy stocks made good gains today, signalling that a short to intermediate term bottom has been made. Calculations on these energy patterns gives an 8/11 or 8/12 ending date for the pattern, just like the general market, so I wouldn't stay in on the long side any longer then that, just to be on the safe side..

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Day traders market..

For those of us who are not day traders this is one boring market... I expect little of importance to happen until the 11th of August or so...

Saturday, July 26, 2008

The next important dates are 8/11/08 and 8/18/08...

Many nodes landing on 8/11/08, and many Fibonacci ratios aligning on 8/18/08...Could be a double top...

Normal tolerance is + or - one trading day.....

Friday, July 25, 2008

Market still staying within the downwash fan of regression of the top of early June





Note that $NDX topped just past the .500 node, although I thought that.500 point would be a bottom, if you look close it was...sorta...We'll see what happens next...

The chart of $NASI is showing recovery from a deep bottom, but I don't expect a lot of vertical progress by the price action on the indexes as the Breadth indicators work off their oversold condition...

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Markets are in an odd state..

Currently we have $trin and $CPC closer to what you see at tops, although many breadth indicators are oversold. I originally conceived the 7/21/08 date as a bottom, and I think perhaps the manipulation of the naked shorting rule started the rally a little early. That said, I am out of this market for the time being. I will re-short once I'm sure this market knows which way it's going...and obviously after it has worked off it's oversold condition...

Monday, July 21, 2008

Today is the .500 node and 1.000 node on $SPX....

So, although the charts changed little today, something should happen tomarrow...Volume has been dying on this little rally, so it has to do something soon...

Friday, July 18, 2008

Still close to .500 node..



Waiting to see what happens next, market looks like it is doing an A-B-C correction up...

Thursday, July 17, 2008

$64,000 question, what happens on the 21'st?



There was quit a bit of overlap of many math nodes on the 21st, which is Monday. I thought that would be a bottom, but since the market rallied before we hit that time target, I'm wondering if that date could be a top...One thing that doesn't make sense with that idea is that many breadth indicators are at levels associated with major lows, so another down leg from here seems difficult unless the breadth indicators go beyond ordinary "oversold" readings. So the .500 node is still technically 2 trading days ahead, on the 21st. So what will happen there? We'll find out soon...

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

today's action




Here is the bounce on the $NDX and $SPX, near a 1.000 and .500 node respectively..

Heck, going long here..

It's looks like the crossover pictured yesterday has triggered the rally..so it looks like we won't get to exactly the .500 node after all..

Tuesday, July 15, 2008

edging slowly downward...




Getting closer to .500 node (bottom chart) also at major crossover (top chart). I think the .500 node will win, however, bounce delayed until we get closer to .500..

Note also the green downsloping line in the lower chart, that could provide resistance, but price action should still penetrate it before it can bounce from it...

Not a bottom yet, I don't think...

$trin is rather low at the moment and put/call is not at levels seen at bottoms...probably not there yet...Timing still suggests we are at least a couple of days away...

Friday, July 11, 2008

Wild day...still sliding down...



Crawling inexorably towards the .500 exponent and sliding down...Both $trin and $CPC are not yet at bottoming levels...so more down is coming...

Conventional trendline study.


Using the conventional channel on the $NDX, I took a linear and logarithmic regression of the points on the Stockcharts snapshot of the $NDX. The days I used have a vertical blue dash under them.

Using the three (what I regard as) potential turn dates, the lower price channel targets are as follows: (Linear regression, then Log regression)

7/17/08 1716.7 1723.3
7/18/08 1710.8 1717.9
7/21/08 1693.0 1701.8

This is probably the range of prices the bottom will be found in...

I would also add that the weekly Bollinger Bands, next week, should also give us a clue as to the price level of the bottom...

Thursday, July 10, 2008

An inside day...

Charts haven't changed much today...still expecting one more decline into the end of next week or into Monday of the following week...Mathematical nodes point to the 21st, as a bottom, and Fibonacci work points to maybe 1 day earlier. So we will be on a bottom watch from next Thursday through Monday...

Mark L.

Tuesday, July 8, 2008

Monday, July 7, 2008

Wednesday, July 2, 2008

and back down again...




Resuming the downtrend...Bears will make quite a bit of money here...

Notice the Stockcharts weekly print of $NASI ($NDX summation index) I give the red bars about 3 weeks to get down to the lower purple trendline. That's when my 7/21/08 bounce date is due. Looks about right, as far as I can tell....

Tuesday, July 1, 2008

Rally finally happens, belatedly..



A roller coaster today, the rally started, faded completely away and then was reborn. Many will think this is "the bottom". It isn't. Probably this lasts 1 or 2 more days at best, then back down we go...

Note the approaching .500 node on the lower right, that represents 07/21/08. I think that will produce a bigger bounce then this will be, although it will not be the end of the downtrend either...