Friday, July 31, 2009

Slight chart update on the U.S. Dollar...


As you can see there is evidence of a slight rebound off of the current exponential trendline. If this gathers steam, it could be because of a correction in equities, which has often been the case recently.

Mike Shedlock has come to the same conclusion, his post is here:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/07/ewave-count-on-us-dollar-suggests-move.html

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

And, in the Black Helicopters department...

O.K., this is real weird. FEMA, that paragon of efficiency and integrity (remember Katrina, New Orleans) is of all things, managing a multi-national troop deployment in the U.S. until the end of the month. To fight Terrorism, of course..

Here's the link:

http://www.fema.gov/media/fact_sheets/nle09.shtm

You should go to the link and read FEMA's official statement(s). It is amazingly odd and creepy, and should give any normal person shivers. With the economy steadily collapsing, I doubt it's terrorism they're getting ready for. Maybe the possibility of riots is more what is on their mind. Anyway, if it really was about terrorism, that would belong to Homeland Security, right? Not FEMA.

If you want to think of a reason there may be trouble ahead, read the post before this one...Don't tell me the Powers That Be haven't considered this. Hank Paulson readily used the threat of riots and marshal law to get his banking cronies the bailout money (and bonuses) they wanted.

What the "green shoots" are really, all about...

The S&P 500 has risen to just under the 38% retracement point from the March lows. Most of the Bank stocks have risen much more spectacularly, sometime 200% or more, and this is most of what gave the S&P it's bounce. These bank stocks, and the rally they have created, are given as examples of new growth in the economy. These next two links will discredit that assumption:

http://www.howestreet.com/articles/index.php?article_id=10272


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/07/27/goldman-sachs-gambling-wi_n_245566.html



Basically, Goldman Sachs and the other megabanks are making all of their money by trading, instead of making money by traditional banking. They are using advanced algorithms and massive computer power to grab a few cents from each other on each trade, and the number of trades per day is in the range of about a billion or so. They might make or lose 100 million dollars a day, in this way. Each firm is in an "arms race" with it's competitors in a bizarre science fiction sort of end game. Green Shoots? No, more like a macabre game to the death by desperately programmed robots.... Keep in mind, that it was recently revealed that 50-75% of all trading volume on the NYSE is program trading (robots). Humans are getting squeezed out.

I feel real sorry for Goldman's Computer guys. You know they are under relentless pressure daily to improve the Algorithms and make the hardware ever faster. I have read they make the money they make in millisecond trades.... Like I said, this is a science fiction ending to Capitalism, where one megabank will finally drive it's competitors into the dust with ever better firepower, then the trillions in Derivative bets go off, and then the Financial system finally winks out... Then civilization kinda winks out too, if you can call what we are, a civilization...

Monday, July 27, 2009

Be wary...

Although I expect a pullback here in the near term of the next week or so, it's uncommon for major market tops to be at the end of July or first week of August, and tops are often complex. It wouldn't surprise me to see a drop, followed by some sideways pattern, that makes another top as we get into September. It would be premature to short this market too heavily at this time...

Conventional $NDX chart, weekly...



Similar to the $SPX chart, approaching Fibonacci resistance (.5) and nearing weekly Bollinger Bands while overbought.

Conventional $SPX chart, weekly...



As we approach a theoretical perfect .500 node tomorrow on the $SPX , we come close to the weekly Bollinger Bands and the .382 retrace...

Saturday, July 25, 2009

Major and Minor .500 nodes, $NDX



We are just past a minor .500 node in this market but perhaps under it's influence. This market is even more overbought on daily. The colors on both charts are Blue = 1.272 node, Purple = 1.317 or Average nodes, and Dark Green are 1.382 nodes...

Major and Minor .500 nodes, $SPX...



The thick purple line is on 7/28/09...and we're getting overbought...

By the way, Tony Cherniawski has pointed out a potential Broadening top formation.

The link for this report is here:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article12284.html

Thursday, July 23, 2009

$SPX with Goldman projection of 1060 ..




http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-get-ready-for-a-monster-second-half-rally-2009-7

It does sorta fit, and it gives a 'C' wave almost .62% of the 'A' wave...but who knows? Remember their oil projections? Didn't quite get there, although it went high enough to ruin everybody...

Do keep in mind the Weiss team projections of bearish cycles by end of month, however. Also keep in mind that Goldman Sachs lies....consistently...

$SPX after today's close...



I am tempted to look at the overhead resistance lines as we hug the .5000 node line for a potential upside target. How far up does Goldman want to play this game?

Dollar looks real bad here...


If the stock markets top in the next week or two and starts to decline, that may boost the dollar and produce a double bottom in that chart (You can see it here, it looks like a small double bottom, if it holds). Otherwise, the dollar cracks support and other financial problems emerge. Either way we are coming to another interesting 'inflection point' where history and fate will change the world.

Monday, July 20, 2009

What's next?

Larry Edelson of Money and Markets claims that their cycle work has a Bearish tilt by end of the month, and if that's so, it could limit the current apparent nascent 'C' wave of the rally. The .500 node value you are all seeing on the spreadsheet charts is at 7/28/09, so maybe that's the final top of the current Bear market rally. We'll see...

By the way, the Martin Weiss group has acquired an interest in the Foundation for the Study of Cycles. That is what their cycle forecasts are based on...

It's very possible the Bradley date was a minor bottom...


It's possible now the Bradley date and one of the lesser .500 nodes, which correspond, was a bottom of a 'B' wave. This is how it appears from looking at a chart of $nasi...This is in spite of the relatively high Euphoria readings on the 15th....

Saturday, July 18, 2009

The Goldman Sachs factor...

Max Keiser mentioned on his website recently that 50-75% of all of the volume on the stock exchanges is "program trading". In turn, half of that volume is produced by Goldman Sachs. That means Goldman is between 25% and 33% of all of the volume out there. This makes technical analysis very difficult. One player can wildly distort the whole market. Food for thought.

Friday, July 17, 2009

Today's (minor) update on the $SPX in the Bradley Zone.



Yesterday produced a higher high than today, and there is negative divergence on the hourly charts. Also, yesterday's top was at a node value of .49447. Pretty close to .50000, I'd say...

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

$SPX charts on the Bradley date 7/15/09...





Note that the bottom chart is practically on the .500 node. Furthermore the second order nodes (not visible) are also showing a .500 node. Since this is also a Bradley date, the market might be toast here... Note also, on this bottom chart, we are also near a set of crossovers...quite a few warnings on this chart...

$NDX charts...





Note on this Bradley date, the $NDX still near trendline crossovers on the bottom chart...

Thursday, July 9, 2009

California's experiment with IOU's...unanticipated effects?

I have seen that California is having some success getting people to use their new IOU's as a currency. I know that's not what the stated reason is for producing them, but that's the effect. If other states down the road end up in a similar state of ruin as California is in now (which I think is likely for most of them), then the U.S. could see a host of competing 'currencies' emerge, state by state, which will continue to undermine the authority and necessity of the U.S. Federal Reserve note. This also has implications for federal taxation. Would you have to pay Federal income tax on wages paid in state based IOU currency? Wouldn't the cash strapped states want that tax revenue for their own?

Tuesday, July 7, 2009

A bit about 12/21/2012...





There's been a lot of talk about the date 12/21/2012 on the web and elsewhere.

When I enter in the dates and price levels from the $SPX Bear market rally of the last few years,and loosely label them by Elliot conventions, as in the image from one of my spreadsheets (in green)... I get the results in the other graphic at the top, showing 2 nodes very close to 1.0 (like .999) lined right up together on 12/21/2012 or so. A very tight cluster...Interesting...

The convention of 3>1 and 5>3 stands for 'wave 3 compared to wave 1' and 'wave 5 compared to wave 3'

Any of you who have kept up with Martin Weiss's research,knows that their recent webcast also talked about a late 2012 cycle bottom.

$SPX charts...





It's looking clearer and clearer on both of these indexes that some kind of significant top has been recently made.

$NDX charts...



Monday, July 6, 2009

Just a comment today on the U.S. Dollar

The rally off of the .25 node on the $USD chart has been real, but very weak, much weaker than is customary. There are a lot of rumors going around about a bank holiday coming up, and further rumors of a dollar devaluation. This could happen by fiat, so just be aware...

Friday, July 3, 2009

Markets had a strong down day yesterday...

The $Nasdaq gapped down yesterday, showing strong weakness...

I feel that this is probably telling us the counter trend rally from the March lows has ended....