Sunday, February 28, 2016

Anatomy of a crash - 2008. Steep declines and crashes are often initiated by the overlap of Fibonacci time ratios.

The exponential markers I use, derived from fib ratios, warn of severe declines following a top when they overlap from more than one study..
Similar situation will occur around the 8th to the 10th of June of this year. Not expecting a 'crash' but a steep decline, nonetheless.

Saturday, February 27, 2016

Price forecast for $SPX out to early April

Now that we have some data on this move out of the February 11th bottom, we can see which exponential trendline is being followed (the green one). I have extended that trendline out to where I believe it runs out of gas, ideally, on or about April 4th. Looks like it reaches about 2050 or so.
When you plot this as a LEVEL, you can see that puts you just 62% higher than we are now. That implies a lot of volatility with not much progress for several weeks, certainly what you might expect of a weakening market, getting ready for a very bad summer and fall.

Tuesday, February 23, 2016

The fellow who does the Youtube videos called 'Realist News' just asked an interesting question. He asked if the 80:1 ratio of the price of gold to that of silver, is about to change.

One can never be sure of these things, but there IS a wedge forming in the chart pattern of that ratio. It looks like this:
Best I can say, is that wedges sometimes fail as they get about 2/3's along. This type of wedge often fails 'up' rather than down, but I think that's unlikely here. It might fail by the end of the year. That would also be a sign of a weakening financial system, which we all know is going to happen anyway.

Forecast to 2021

Click on any chart to enlarge it.
Some of the _many_ other supporting studies:
Also, help from my good friend, Fibonacci. Don't expect it to be perfect, just roughly close. It will get refined more as we move forward. People talking about a stock 'Armageddon' are a bit over the top. This is a serious decline, and the worst seems to be from the top in 2019 down into 2021. That _will_ be scary. From early April of this year into the end of September won't be much fun either, I come up with 1693 or so as the bottom in the fall... But overall, not by any means, an end of the world scenario...

Sunday, February 14, 2016

Crude Oil in for a significant reversal? Maybe, the charts are forecasting a BIG Middle Eastern War centered on Syria. That could push up prices.

I don't like predictions like this, but in the face of the massive oversupply of crude, I can't think of any other FUNDAMENTAL reason for a major reversal in Crude Oil prices.
First chart, a trendline contact, the second chart, the 1.000 node reached. That's a clear formula for a reversal. This chart has some temporal authority, as it's sourced all the way back to 12/28/1998.

Sticking my head out. Possible $SPX price/time prediction. This looks straightforward, but I didn't arrive at the price target in this way. This is just a display.

When's the best time to short Panera Bread? Possibly April 4th or so.

The date/price sequence of 10/19/98 and 2.06 (low), 9/15/03 and 47.79 (high), 04/03/06 and 75.88 (high), produced the following spike high of $208.00 on July 27, 2015:
A different date/price sequence of 10/19/98 and 2.06 (start low), 09/15/03 and 47.79 (wave 1,high), 06/03/13 and 194.77 (wave 3,high), produces the following graph, with exponentially derived trendlines. A widening envelope (Megaphone pattern) terminates at the April 4th, 2016 date with a high and lows on that date of approximately $212.00 and $168.00, respectively. The standard Elliot Wave, Fibonacci Calculation gives a top at $216.23.
This next picture shows the area in the box that contains the widening envelope, it looks almost the same on the conventional plot, but you often get more accurate results off the exponential plot.