Tuesday, December 29, 2009

The most recent 50 visitors, where are they from?


If I wanted to pay for the privilege, I can plot the most recent 1000, which makes a denser map, but this is O.K., kind of fun....Some big cities have more than one of my readers represented here...On slow days I sometimes check this a few times a day and watch the patterns change.....

I saw the film 'AVATAR' last night...dazzling...must see...

I highly recommend this film. The special effects are amazing, but the story is very appropriate, speaking to the issues of Empire, and the effect it has on people both within it and outside of it. I don't want to give you a dry review, and I will say to you, it will tug at your soul in a very unique way. You must see this...you owe it to yourself...

Market Surprise for 2010?

http://www.howestreet.com/articles/index.php?article_id=11976

Everything that can be said about the truth....


http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/geo/pastanalysis/2009/1218.html

Sunday, December 27, 2009

The coming fierce political infighting among Elites...

Note that the author lays the groundwork for this conclusion in the unavoidable decline in tax revenues one would expect when you bring on a whole slew of new taxes in the midst of an economic decline. This is already what we're seeing in discussions occurring from the national level, to the state and city/county levels. With tax levels falling, from both voluntary and involuntary withdrawal of players from an out of control, unfair economic/political system, the Elites and other 'protected' groups begin to 'go after' and cannibalize each other's revenue streams....

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogdec09/2010trends12-09.html

Friday, December 25, 2009

Debt clock ...

Forwarded to me by Bill Stockwell...very neat...

His comments:

Amounts are continually updated.
When you first look at the website, it is rather overwhelming,
but as you scroll across the screen, many of the numbers
represented there are referenced in the investment and news articles.

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

It's amazing how sanguine we've become about how these numbers are rolling up and increasing....

A couple of nodes overlapping on Monday, the 28th of December...




Looking at the bottom chart we have a set of overlapping nodes ( a .5000 and a 1.000) on December 28th relative to the A-B-C patterns I have labeled. This is only occurring on the $NDX, nothing similar is happening on the $SPX. The $NDX chart (the one in the middle), though is more interesting anyway, as it looks like that index is attempting a breakout through the trendline that has contained it. Where it stands at the moment, it has not yet achieved a confirmed breakout, as that happens only after a little more penetration then what's shown here. So the stage is possibly set for a resolution of the question of what's happening next. If the market doesn't reverse on Monday or perhaps Tuesday, we're probably going quite a bit higher for sure, but if it does reverse, then the existing trendline and the combined .5000 and 1.000 nodes would presumably been active, and the Bearish case will come to the fore. Remember also that the $SPX has been, and is still under, a Bearish warning state for quite a while now...Now we wait and see how it resolves....

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Hitting the roof again...

The $NDX is still bouncing along the underside of this light green ascending trendline...

Monday, December 21, 2009

The Most Dangerous Thoughts ever produced by Man....

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5122859998068380459#

What kind of intellectual quest could drive four of the greatest thinkers of the last 100 years (in mathematics and philosophy) to obsession, then madness, and then finally premature death (suicide)? What does the consequences of their quest, tell us about mathematics, logic, certainty, and what it means to be a human being?


Extraordinary documentary by the BBC....

Saturday, December 12, 2009

$SPX and $NDX Macro Trendlines.





The $NDX chart at the top shows the current price action 'skewered' like a shish-ka-bob on one of the trendlines (dark green, upsloping)...it's really the microtrendlines I have been showing in previous posts that seems to be controlling the upside on this index. The $SPX, on the other hand, is topside limited by it's 'macro', longer time derived trendlines, and you can see it's still reasonably close to one of it's .500 nodes (center image). We're still under a 'Bearish warning' condition, and all the more so with the dollar strengthening...

Thursday, December 10, 2009

A small bounce yesterday off of the lower trendline of the $SPX...


Which takes the $NDX up back up to it's over-head trendline...Monotonous...Boring... We need the dollar rally to get legs, so we can break this endless pattern...

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Dollar rally continues...markets weaken...




Notice that on the Microtrendlines chart, the $NDX did manage to strike the trendline (barely), but has formed a small double top...

A time to be alert...If the dollar rally gets real legs, the markets will crumble...

I've been anticipating this for about 3 months, but we still need verification....all eyes on the dollar...


I've added the $SPX Microtrendlines chart and show it's current decline, just starting, has already about hit the supporting trendline. So we are at an interesting juncture, the $NDX has strong resistance overhead, and the $SPX has strong support just beneath. I doubt these two markets will diverge sharply, or for very long, so the next few days may end the gridlock as one index, or the other, has to break through it's current controlling trendline. Since complacency is fairly high, and risk tolerance is waning, I still vote for 'down' as the direction this will go....

Monday, December 7, 2009

Tea Party tops GOP on Three-Way Generic Ballot

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/december_2009/tea_party_tops_gop_on_three_way_generic_ballot

Suggests that a sea change in public opinion is under way, and that Republicans may benefit only marginally from Obama's poor performance. I would guess that some Democrats will eventually be disenchanted with Obama as the recovery devolves into another crisis. It's not clear that 'ideologically' they will join the independents and conservatives, however...

A little negative divergence starting to show up...


But no point in getting excited...yet..Many commentators are becoming whipsawed trying to divine some sense out of the dollar's one day wonder on Friday, and the hard core Elliott Wavers are trying to interpret every little squiggle in the indexes, of which there have been many over the past three months, with very little resolution as to trend. This is very much a waiting game now, there are some divergences, we'll just have to see how they play out.

Saturday, December 5, 2009

Updated $NDX microtrendlines.


Still showing what looks to me like potential weakness as trendline is approached...

Thursday, December 3, 2009

Today's down day was interesting...


But what we'll look for is whether we have follow through tomorrow...notice that unlike the previous hits of the green trendline, this failure of the $NDX was a lighter strike. Weakness?

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

Macro $SPX charts




The $SPX is still contained by at least one trendline (light brown) although it should be noted that this is a rising trendline...which is why the market has been able to churn slightly higher. Reversals can still take place off of rising trendlines though. The current node value is .51693, still not too far from a perfect .50000. Since .51693/.50000 = 1.03386, we are then 3.386% away from ideal, still not badly off. We are not out of range of this node generally until we have reached about .53000 or so....

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

The bankruptcy of the United States is now certain


http://www.thedailycrux.com/content/3455/Porter_Stansberry


Excerpt:

When governments go bankrupt it's called "a default." Currency speculators figured out how to accurately predict when a country would default. Two well-known economists - Alan Greenspan and Pablo Guidotti - published the secret formula in a 1999 academic paper. That's why the formula is called the Greenspan-Guidotti rule. The rule states: To avoid a default, countries should maintain hard currency reserves equal to at least 100% of their short-term foreign debt maturities. The world's largest money management firm, PIMCO, explains the rule this way: "The minimum benchmark of reserves equal to at least 100% of short-term external debt is known as the Greenspan-Guidotti rule. Greenspan-Guidotti is perhaps the single concept of reserve adequacy that has the most adherents and empirical support."

So how does America rank on the Greenspan-Guidotti scale? It's a guaranteed default.

Goldman Staff Packing Pistols to Defend Against Peasants

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/12/goldman-senior-staff-packing-pistols-to-defend-against-peasants.html

$SPX and $NDX microtrendlines...


Thursday, November 19, 2009

O.K. Some kind of top was verified today with the decline...


Remember that the 17th and 18th were Fibonacci nodes..it looks like there's a chance that worked...A few more days should tell us what's what...

As usual the $NDX Microtrendlines were followed quite faithfully....

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

$Russell 2000 analysis




Note that the recent top exists at one of the lesser but occasionally important .75 nodes (bottom chart). This would have less meaning if the $SPX wasn't at a major .500 node. Together they reinforce the idea that a top here is probable. Time will tell....

How The Great Recession Will Transform America

http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2009/11/how-the-great-recession-will-transform-america.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+PlanetYelnick+%28Planet+Yelnick%29

Saturday, November 14, 2009

$NDX 'Macro' and 'Micro' trendlines...





Notice the interesting difference here between the $NDX and the $SPX. In the bottom graph here, which I'm calling the $NDX 'Micro' trendlines, this is where the price action is contained. The two top graphs look as though the 'Macro' trendlines have been exceeded and are therefore no longer working. This is the reverse situation from the $SPX in the earlier post below....

$SPX 'Macro' and 'Micro' trendlines...





Not a lot of change from 4 days ago, really....

In this case, the Micro trendlines (bottom chart) are at or beyond their limits, it is the bigger and older sourced 'macro' trendlines (top two charts) that are probably containing this...

Friday, November 13, 2009

The market is declining a bit...is this the real deal? Is the Bear back?

After today's action I will redo the charts, see what it looks like...Remember, we are looking for 5 wave declines, rather than '3's....Probably by next week we might have some idea...

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Exponential Trendlines and Nodes, seeds from 10/2002 through 10/2007 - $SPX



Haven't shown these for a while, these exponential trendlines are of a larger order and presumably more resilient then the micro trendlines I've been showing lately. These confirm the topping action suggested by other methods/ indicators. Note the .500 time node we happen to be at in the bottom chart... That's one of the important warnings in this system of trend change...

Russell 2000 non-confirmation with DOW


The non-confirmation by the current top of the Russell 2000 compared to the Blue-Chip Dow industrials, shows that risk appetites are collapsing...

I've had computer problems..back now...

Hello I'm back...Yesterday's rally was a bit of an eye opener...My computer has been giving me fits for about a day, I have reloaded it and am operational again...The power of this last day's rally was surprising, volume was respectable, as was the point gain. I would assume short covering had much to do with it. No fatal damage has been done to the Bear case, but obviously, another couple of days like this one could change things significantly. The dollar is still involved with this, and today it hit support (again) at just below 75.0 or so. That support has to hold if the Stock market is to decline...

Thursday, November 5, 2009

If we are forming the right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern on both indexes, here are the trendlines to watch....




On the $SPX the highlighted green trendline will be at 1074.72 and for the $NDX the highlighted orange trendline will be at 1727.02. Both trendlines will normally be exceeded slightly before they will stop the advance. If they are exceeded by too much, then obviously something different is happening, and the markets have apparently not really topped...

Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Looks like a nice wave 2 has happened, with a 50% retrace...



Now we wait over the next couple of days to see if wave 3 is really under way. (Technically, wave 3 of the bigger wave 3) Those of you who follow Elliott Wave will know what I mean, if not, go over to Daneric's site, he's a deep Elliott guy...

Saturday, October 31, 2009

Friday, October 30, 2009

Look at MACD on this weekly chart..Looks like crossover time for this indicator...Down we go....



Be careful here, we haven't yet gotten through the support as seen on the Microtrendlines chart of a couple of days ago, we could bounce here again and form the right shoulder of a head and shoulder pattern...So the big decline might be a little ways off..

The other point of view is represented by Dab Basch who still sees an imminent crash. He has updated his charts from last week, you can see them here:

http://www.safehaven.com/article-14888.htm

Fall of the Republic....

http://spywitnessnews.org/content/fall-republic-hq-full-length-version-2009

If you haven't seen this, you need to...predicts the future reasonably well......

Also a lot of unique information is presented, volunteered by brave individuals within local and state governments...This alone is worth seeing as a tribute to the people who took the risks to provide it.

The little rally is obviously over....

After another notch down, I'll do some new charts...as the decline progresses...

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Progressing down....







We are now approaching some intermediate scale trendlines, which I have highlighted. Today's low (so far) on the $SPX is almost on one now. Tomorrow or Friday could see a bounce as some indicators are getting oversold. The nature of any bounce that materializes will tell a great deal about the real condition of the market.

End of day update, replaced charts with updates showing today's final lows....

Tuesday, October 27, 2009

This is our future, if the Bankers have their way....

After the Billionaires Plundered Alabama Town, Troops Were Called in ... Illegally


http://www.alternet.org/workplace/143485/nightmare_in_america%253A_after_the_billionaires_plundered_alabama_town%252C_troops_were_called_in?page=1

Please, Gentle Readers, pass this story on to others, it's only through general awareness by the people that this kind of thing can be stopped....

Monday, October 26, 2009

Thursday, October 22, 2009

Clearly, we've made some kind of top (again).

Later on, probably tonight, I'll update all of he charts...

Well, an update. Today was a rally day after all, so no proof of a top yet...

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Drafter of 9/11 official government report now reveals it as a cover-up!

http://www.salem-news.com/articles/september112009/911_truth_9-11-09.php

Looks like the author, John J. Farmer Jr., was New Jersey Attorney General for quite a while, and even Governor of New Jersey, although very briefly.

Obama Poised to Cede US Sovereignty, Claims British Lord

http://fightinwordsusa.wordpress.com/2009/10/15/obama-poised-to-cede-us-soverignty-claims-british-lord/

The important excerpt from this site:

At [the 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference in] Copenhagen, this December, weeks away, a treaty will be signed. Your president will sign it. Most of the third world countries will sign it, because they think they’re going to get money out of it. Most of the left-wing regime from the European Union will rubber stamp it. Virtually nobody won’t sign it.

I read that treaty. And what it says is this, that a world government is going to be created. The word “government” actually appears as the first of three purposes of the new entity. The second purpose is the transfer of wealth from the countries of the West to third world countries, in satisfication of what is called, coyly, “climate debt” – because we’ve been burning CO2 and they haven’t. We’ve been screwing up the climate and they haven’t. And the third purpose of this new entity, this government, is enforcement.

How many of you think that the word “election” or “democracy” or “vote” or “ballot” occurs anywhere in the 200 pages of that treaty? Quite right, it doesn’t appear once. So, at last, the communists who piled out of the Berlin Wall and into the environmental movement, who took over Greenpeace so that my friends who funded it left within a year, because [the communists] captured it – Now the apotheosis as at hand. They are about to impose a communist world government on the world. You have a president who has very strong sympathies with that point of view. He’s going to sign it. He’ll sign anything. He’s a Nobel Peace Prize [winner]; of course he’ll sign it.

[laughter]

And the trouble is this; if that treaty is signed, if your Constitution says that it takes precedence over your Constitution (sic), and you can’t resign from that treaty unless you get agreement from all the other state parties – And because you’ll be the biggest paying country, they’re not going to let you out of it.

So, thank you, America. You were the beacon of freedom to the world. It is a privilege merely to stand on this soil of freedom while it is still free. But, in the next few weeks, unless you stop it, your president will sign your freedom, your democracy, and your prosparity away forever. And neither you nor any subsequent government you may elect will have any power whatsoever to take it back. That is how serious it is. I’ve read the treaty. I’ve seen this stuff about [world] government and climate debt and enforcement. They are going to do this to you whether you like it or not.

But I think it is here, here in your great nation, which I so love and I so admire – it is here that perhaps, at this eleventh hour, at the fifty-ninth minute and fifty-ninth second, you will rise up and you will stop your president from signing that dreadful treaty, that purposeless treaty. For there is no problem with climate and, even if there were, an economic treaty does nothing to [help] it.

So I end by saying to you the words that Winston Churchill addressed to your president in the darkest hour before the dawn of freedom in the Second World War. He quoted from your great poet Longfellow:

Sail on, O Ship of State!
Sail on, O Union, strong and great!
Humanity with all its fears,
With all the hopes of future years,
Is hanging breathless on thy fate!


This fellow, Lord Moncton, apparently got a standing ovation for his speech...

There is a 4 minute Youtube video of this speech on this site..you might want to watch it....

Today's charts based on previous swings circa 2002-2003


Thursday, October 15, 2009

$SPX micro trendlines



You might remember this chart from last week. Well, it broke through the trendline it was banging against, and ran up to this new one. Let's see what happens here.