Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

From the Market Oracle...

Stock Market Rally Following 1931 Bear Crash Pattern

$SPX charts as of this morning...

The price action here is coming down to the second level trendlines, which may provide support. We are in a high risk area now. The rally is somewhat getting long in the tooth, although the $NDX secondary nodes are still in the .3 to .41 range, which is rarely the end of a move. The secondary nodes for the $SPX are showing one at .494, which means there is cause to think the $SPX rally _could_ be over. It may however ignore this one, as there are two more .500 secondary nodes ahead of us, the next one in fact being 7/15/09, same as the major Bradley turn date. My guess is that the market will recover here and top at the Bradley date. For the $SPX, that might be a lower top than the one on 6/11/09...

$NDX charts as of this morning..

The chart labeled 1.382 basis is showing the price action encountering the declining magenta trend line, which is a strong one.

Sunday, June 21, 2009

A storm front in Congress

As many of you know, Ron Paul has started a bill in Congress called 'Audit the FED'. This is a brilliant move, as it forces other senators to come clean about whether they are under banker lobbyist influence. If the bill passes, the Fed may be neutered, which would be a good thing. Even if the bill fails, it draws a spotlight on the nefarious workings of the Federal Reserve. Folks, this is high drama, and the future of the U.S.A. is at stake.

Unfortunately, most Americans are too busy watching football games and American Idol to notice.

Thursday, June 18, 2009

The Fourth Turning

A book I highly recommend, I'm reading it now.. Written in 1997, it predicted a crisis starting in 2005. Not a bad prediction from 1997. It covers in detail how the march of generations plays out.

It's sort of a study of history, based on the concept of a crisis every four generations. Not as far-fetched as you would think. The research is exhaustive.

I won't say when the book says the crisis ends, you should read it, but I will repost a chart from last year that is in reasonable agreement with it.

Market seems to be recovering as others call for an imminent crash

Although another crash is coming, it's not here yet. The node mathematics suggest we have time for maybe one more leg of this rally before the crash will happen. See previous posts...

Monday, June 15, 2009

$NDX long term charts

Here, like the $SPX you see a crossover pending (scheduled for 7/2/09, close to the $SPX) but right at a major node already (.514), unlike the $SPX. So there is agreement on the less powerful crossover warning, but little agreement between indexes on major node timing, near term. Somehow I feel the Bradley date ties in to this, and may be the final arbiter of this rally's end...
The secondary nodes on this chart are 'young', in the vicinity of .28 to .38 or it would fall out of bed right away.
On 7/15/09, the secondary nodes on this chart hit around .484, close enough to .500 to let it drop...

$SPX closes in on probable end of rally...

Although the rally in the markets are not yet 'over', they are getting a lot closer. The bottom picture shows that we are approaching a major crossover, and a .500 node on the larger scale, and at the second order level, we are seeing .500 nodes will start showing up in about a week, so there are several 'landmines' along the way from here to the bradley date on 7/15/09. Roughly we have about a 3 week window where this index could fail...The crossover on the $SPX is scheduled for 6/30/09.

$NDX rally - close up

It continues along the trendlines, bouncing a bit unsurely but steadily.

Saturday, June 13, 2009

USO - the rally.

You can see here the twin A-B-C patterns I am using for this USO calculation. The Exponential Charts with blue titles are generated from the blue A-B-C pattern, the lone red titled chart is obviously from the red A-B-C pattern. A pullback in this commodity could happen here (note crossover on first chart, and trendline touches elsewhere), but we are not close to any .500 or 1.000 nodes anywhere, so the rally has more time to grow....

The left edge of all of the exponential charts is (time-wise) the date of the vertical magenta line on the Bigcharts original chart of USO at the bottom.

Friday, June 12, 2009

From Bob O'Brians Sanity Check...

What's Next For The US Economy, or What's Left of It?

This is an uncommonly good synopsis of the whole meltdown, who the players are, and what it means.


Warning! This piece is painful and fascinating at the same time.

Thursday, June 11, 2009

Another call for a top in Silver by someone else..

Readers here may recall that I recently called a top in precious metals and a bottom in the dollar.

Here is an author on the Market Oracle site who sees a technical top in silver at the 62% retrace. It often happens that my node/trend line system calls tops and bottoms that also happen to be Fibonacci price retracements. This is just that kind of event.

Another interesting site. Max Keiser

This guy's interesting and funny, check out his site...

The headline news here is that California is less than 50 days from financial meltdown.

I suspect eventually the whole U.S. will be in approximately the same condition, so California will predict for us, in many ways, the manner in which the disaster plays out...

Tuesday, June 9, 2009

Book news.

The book I'm writing that documents the equations in use on this site, is in proofreading now, ahead of schedule. It's basically completed. So I might be able to release it in July sometime. I'm thinking that I will sell it for about $25, plus shipping. It's about 60 pages in length. The title is: 'Elliot Wave Timing- Beyond Ordinary Fibonacci Methods'. It will come with a software disk with my core spreadsheet included, so you can put in your own data and generate charts similar to mine, as seen on this website.

More reporting on the banking interests and their actions against the citizens...

Sunday, June 7, 2009

Immigration - another story of runaway growth, and unsustainability...

Are Humans smarter than yeast? This video reminds me of that one, sort of.

On my high speed link, the video was choppy, starting and stopping. It was still worth the patience to see it, however...

$USD has definitely bottomed...

The U.S. Dollar bottomed in the lowest chart shown, at a node value of .25186 (on June 2nd), which is .744% away from ideal ((.25186/.25)-1)*100% = .744%. Almost a perfect .25 node.

Wednesday, June 3, 2009

$SPX - no real sign of a top, but....

On the $SPX we are not yet real close to a .500 node nor are we at or near a trendline, nor are there any trendline crossovers. There is perfect correspondence between the .500 node pictured here (that's coming up, down the road a bit) and the Bradley turn date on 7/15/09. All of that fits real well, but we have tops forming on precious metals and the $NDX and a bottom, probably, in the $dollar. So, we have to guess if the $SPX is just the odd man out, or if the other charts here dominate. Your guess here, is as good as mine.

$NDX making a top also...

Along with precious metals, the $NDX is making some kind of top here also. Note the trendline penetration on the top figure and the .500 (actual value = .50536) time node we are at on the middle picture. That's the ingredients for a reversal, at least at some level.

Top for precious metals may now be in...

Looks like the trend change may have been today, the $USD looks like it's bottoming also. We will need a couple of more days to be sure. The time node value on the bottom chart is .5119064 which is 2.38% off of ideal (((.5119064/.5) -1) *100%). Note that the top chart had the intersection of a primary trend line(down sloping magenta) and a secondary trendline (up sloping, thin, light blue, and curved), and that was where the rise appears to have stopped.