Friday, April 30, 2010
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Thursday, April 29, 2010
Yesterday David Cameron, the Conservative leader, suggested Britain could follow Greece into crisis. “Greece stands as a warning to what happens if you don’t pay back your debt,” he said.
David Miliband, the Foreign Secretary, accused Mr Cameron of “economic illiteracy”. Lord Mandelson, the Business Secretary, insisted that Britain was in a “very, very, very different situation” from Greece, because the UK retained its AAA rating.
But Neil Mackinnon, an economist from VTB Capital, said it was “a mystery” that Britain had not yet been downgraded.
Angel Gurria, the head of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, said “contagion has already happened”, likening the crisis to the flesh-eating bug Ebola.
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Yes I agree, the system probably can't be fixed...
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Monday, April 26, 2010
The world was completely transformed by oil for the duration of the twentieth century, but if the graph is right, within 20 years it will be virtually gone but our dependence upon it will not. Instead, we have:
- zero time to plan how to replace cars in our lives
- zero time to plan how to manufacture and install millions of furnaces to replace home oil furnaces, and zero time toproduce the infrastructure necessary to carry out that task
- zero time to retool suburbia so it can function without gasoline
- zero time to plan for replacement of the largest military establishment in history, almost completely dependent upon oil
- zero time to plan to support nine billion peolple without the "green revolution," a creation of the age of oil
- zero time to plan to replace oil as an essential fuel in electricity production
- zero time to plan for preserving millions of miles of roads without asphalt.
- zero time to plan for the replacement of oil in its essential role in EVERY industry.
- zero time to plan for replacement of oil in its exclusive role of transporting people, agricultural produce, manufactured goods. In a world without oil that appears only twenty years away, there will be no oil-burning ships transporting US grain to other countries, there will be no oil-burning airlines linking the world's major cities, there will be no oil-burning ships transporting Chinese manufactured goods to the billions now dependent on them.
- zero time to plan for the survival of the billions of new people expected by 2050 in the aftermath of ":peak everything."
- zero capital, because of failing banks ansd public and private debt, to address these issues.
Friday, April 23, 2010
What seems reasonable to me is that we might see a correction, sufficient to relieve the overbought pressure (which could happen anytime), and then a resumption of the upside...I've been generally skeptical of this rally for a while, but there doesn't seem to be any internal weaknesses or divergence, just some overbought conditions such as is seen in young bull markets...
Anyway here are the monthly Bollinger Bands for QQQQ and ILM (proxy for the Russell 2000):
Rather looks like the Russell is already in it's bands and the Nasdaq 100 is close...So if we're in a mania, it may push these wider, if it's supposed to stop it should be real soon...
Note in the Bigcharts chart above, only the monthly Bollinger Bands stands in front of the $RUT's march upward...that might stop it in conjunction with the trendlines I posted earlier, but the volume stats right now don't look encouraging for the Bears...
Lastly in the charts below, I have shown how the recent spike in the $NDX looks, based on the regression of past highs. Are we seeing a parabolic blowoff that's near it's end, or just the superseding of existing exponential trendlines by a mania that has no defined boundaries? Right now truthfully, I'm not sure..
Thursday, April 22, 2010
A few interesting comments about the airline industry...
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
At least, not yet...See what the next couple of days brings...Need to see a pullback begin in earnest..
Monday, April 19, 2010
Jailed Whistleblower: US Lawmakers Held Offshore UBS Accounts
So I guess they can get out of dodge before everything collapses, and their money is safe...how tidy..
For the world economy, the dominoes keep alignin'...
Sunday, April 18, 2010
Saturday, April 17, 2010
Aside from the probable market top reached last week, this is THE news...
Friday, April 16, 2010
Let's see if anyone goes to jail, though...So far, the Banksters have been immune...This is a civil, not criminal case...There needs to be criminal charges, because that's what they are...
Thursday, April 15, 2010
Again, as always, we wait for the market to give us confirmation...
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
I don't think I've ever seen both of these sentiment measures so extreme at the same time...Most indexes have also exceeded their daily Bollinger Bands by a good bit, as well. Tomorrow might see a slightly higher high and then a reversal...that's my guess...
This chart is from Sentimentrader.com...
Tuesday, April 13, 2010
Whenever the blue line passes above the red line in the top chart, the 'local' top should be in, and I believe that will turn into something bigger than that, after it gets going...Note the '?' I have put on the chart. Close though it is, it hasn't happened yet. Wait....
(Click to enlarge)
This seems to corroborate the previous post...We are at or near the top...Still, wait for confirmation before doing anything...
Sunday, April 11, 2010
(Click on the charts above to enlarge them)
Saturday, April 10, 2010
This agrees with my feelings that the West will never fully recover from this time of trial, or that recovery would be, at best, generations off...
Thursday, April 8, 2010
I am doing a rough overview of how banking rules differ from one civilization to another. I am curious to see if the corrupting influence of western banking is universal...
Check out also this Wikipedia link:
interesting...Would these Islamic practices prevent collusion between big Islamic institutions to commit fraud on the scale of American or Western Banks? I am reading this new myself, and if you all have comments or insights please post them. I am not championing Muslim anything per se, but it's worthwhile to see if other cultures really have usable ideas...
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
This gives an approximate roadmap through 2011...
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
More Ponzi scheme reporting...very good...
“For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.”
Saturday, April 3, 2010
Why it is that in the near future, movies will be announced but never produced, but studios and traders will make hundreds of millions on them anyway....and why in the future celebrities will be prevented by the SEC to speak out on political issues...and why Iron Ore will join the commodities whose price isn't reflected by supply and demand, it will only reflect trading activities in derivatives focused on the Iron market...and more, and more...
Bill Stockwell has come up with this chart showing a 'ripe' ascending wedge in interest rates on the ten year note. His interpretation is a jump in inflation, which could be, although it could just as well be deflation...all we know is interest rates are ready to jump, as these formations 'pop' rather fast...
Friday, April 2, 2010
Three days ago over at zerohedge.com, they ran a story titled “It’s Official – America Now Enforces Capital Controls.” Here’s the story’s lead-in:
" It couldn't have happened to a nicer country. On March 18, with very little pomp and circumstance, President Obama passed the most recent stimulus act, the $17.5 billion Hiring Incentives to Restore Employment Act (H.R. 2487), brilliantly goalseeked by the administration's millionaire cronies to abbreviate as HIRE. As it was merely the latest in an endless stream of acts destined to expand the government payroll to infinity, nobody cared about it, or actually read it. Because if anyone had read it, the act would have been known as the Capital Controls Act, as one of the lesser, but infinitely more important provisions on page 27, known as Offset Provisions - Subtitle A – Foreign Account Tax Compliance, institutes just that. In brief, the Provision requires that foreign banks not only withhold 30% of all outgoing capital flows (likely remitting the collection promptly back to the U.S. Treasury), but also disclose the full details of non-exempt account-holders to the U.S. and the IRS. And should this provision be deemed illegal by a given foreign nation's domestic laws (think Switzerland), well the foreign financial institution is required to close the account. It's the law. If you thought you could move your capital to the non-sequestration safety of non-U.S. financial institutions, sorry you lose – the law now says so. Capital Controls are now here and are now fully enforced by the law. "
After reading through the “Hiring Incentives to Restore Employment Act,” which is actually H.R. 2847, not H.R. 2487 as indicated above, the assessment by zerohedge.com appears to be accurate. Sure there are those who will say that this bill is about “cutting down on tax evasion” not “capital controls,” but I think that’s naïve. Even so, I encourage you to read the entire piece by zerohedge.com (link here) and all 48 pages of the HIRE Act (link here) so you can decide for yourself
Thursday, April 1, 2010
That said, in spite of the fact that it has recently been stopped in it's advance by one of the major rising trendlines, I think it's tracing out a big A-B-C pattern...Most moves don't stop until they hit one of the .500 nodes and we're quite a ways in time from one of those..So I put the C wave where it might end up...
I think we're in deflation, overall, until the sovereign debt crisis explodes, and we end up devaluing. The timing is tricky here, and if we enter the debt crisis earlier rather than later, it could change my overall bullish bias for the dollar, and keep commodities moving higher in spite of weak demand...