Thursday, September 30, 2010

Looks like a reversal day.

Will do another set of charts tomorrow end of day. Hopefully the reversal will be solid by that point.

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Current charts...

What does this remind you of? Perhaps the Nasdaq bubble up to early 2000?

In many ways, it's worse, since this is a log scale.

Superimpose on this chart, the Nasdaq bubble, plus the ensuing decline, and you can see problems ahead for a long, long, time.

The crash in population that's coming could last for at least centuries, if I understand what this chart is saying to me...

Below is a log plot of the 1929 crash, the population chart I have above, shows the part represented below by the upward blue arrow to the top. A reasonable fraction of the time going up is taken to bring it back down to whatever level becomes the 'bottom'. This is the downward blue arrow pictured in the chart below. This concept applied to the population chart above could easily give a 'bottom' after a couple of thousand years, give or take...



By the way, still holding my short position...patience....

Monday, September 27, 2010

What are the PTB trying to pull with these headlines?

UN ‘to appoint space ambassador to greet alien visitors’

Former Air Force Officers: UFOs Tampered With Nuclear Missiles

Can’t figure out what the powers that be are trying to pull with this stuff, except maybe fake an alien landing down the road apiece to destroy or discredit most of Earth’s religions to make people more docile.

No Alien in it’s right mind would come here, even if it were technically possible.

Because the Earth is a ghetto.

Sunday, September 26, 2010

The Collapse Of Western Morality By Paul Craig Roberts

The Collapse Of Western Morality


We have what appears to be a new thrill: American soldiers using the cover of war to murder civilians. Recently American troops were arrested for murdering Afghan civilians for fun and collecting trophies such as fingers and skulls.

This revelation came on the heels of Pfc. Bradley Manning’s alleged leak of a US Army video of US soldiers in helicopters and their controllers thousands of miles away having fun with joy sticks murdering members of the press and Afghan civilians. Manning is cursed with a moral conscience that has been discarded by his government and his military, and Manning has been arrested for obeying the law and reporting a war crime to the American people.

US Rep. Mike Rogers, a Republican, of course, from Michigan, who is on the House Subcommittee on Terrorism, has called for Manning’s execution. According to US Rep. Rogers it is an act of treason to report an American war crime.

In other words, to obey the law constitutes "treason to America."

US Rep. Rogers said that America’s wars are being undermined by "a culture of disclosure" and that this "serious and growing problem" could only be stopped by the execution of Manning.

The US government, a font of imperial hubris, does not believe that any act it commits, no matter how vile, can possibly be a war crime.

If the crimes were limited to war and the theft of lands, perhaps we could say it is a case of jingoism sidetracking traditional morality, otherwise still in effect.

Alas, the collapse of morality is too widespread. Some sports teams now have a win-at-all-cost attitude that involves plans to injure the star players of the opposing teams. To avoid all these controversies, let’s go to Formula One racing where 200 mph speeds are routine.

Prior to 1988, 22 years ago, track deaths were due to driver error, car failure, and poorly designed tracks compromised with safety hazards. World Champion Jackie Stewart did much to improve the safety of tracks, both for drivers and spectators.

But in 1988 everything changed. Top driver Ayrton Senna nudged another top driver Alain Prost toward a pit wall at 190 mph. According to AutoWeek (August 30, 2010), nothing like this had been seen before."Officials did not punish Senna’s move that day in Portugal, and so a significant shift in racing began." What the great racing driver Stirling Moss called "dirty driving" became the norm.

Nigel Roebuck in AutoWeek reports that in 1996 World Champion Damon Hill said that Senna’s win-at-all-cost tactic "was responsible for fundamental change in the ethics of the sport." Drivers began using "terrorist tactics on the track." Damon Hill said that "the views that I’d gleaned from being around my dad [twice world champion Graham Hill] and people like him, I soon had to abandon," because you realized that no penalty was forthcoming against the guy who tried to kill you in order that he could win.

When asked about the ethics of modern Formula One racing, American World Champion Phil Hill said:"Doing that sort of stuff in my day was just unthinkable. For one thing, we believed certain tactics were unacceptable."

In today’s Western moral climate, driving another talented driver into the wall at 200 mph is just part of winning.

Michael Schumacher, born in January 1969, is a seven times World Champion, an unequaled record. On August 1 at the Hungarian Grand Prix, AutoWeek Reports that Schumacher tried to drive his former Ferrari teammate, Rubens Barrichello, into the wall at 200 mph speeds.

Confronted with his attempted act of murder, Schumacher said: "This is Formula One. Everyone knows I don’t give presents."

Neither does the US government, nor state and local governments, nor the UK government, nor the EU.

The deformation of the police, which many Americans, in their untutored existence as naive believers in"law and order," still think are "on their side," has taken on new dimensions with the police militarized to fight "terrorists" and "domestic extremists."

The police have been off the leash since the civilian police boards were nixed by the conservatives. Kids as young as 6 years old have been handcuffed and carted off to jail for school infractions that may or may not have occurred. So have moms with a car full of children (see, for example, this video.).

Anyone who Googles videos of US police gratuitous brutality will call up tens of thousands of examples, and this is after laws that make filming police brutality a felony. A year or two ago such a search would call up hundreds of thousands of videos.

In one of the most recent of the numerous daily acts of gratuitous police abuse of citizens, an 84-year-old man had his neck broken because he objected to a night time towing of his car. The goon cop body-slammed the 84-year old and broke his neck. The Orlando, Florida, police department says that the old man was a "threat" to the well-armed, much younger police goon, because the old man clenched his fist.

Americans will be the first people sent straight to Hell while thinking that they are the salt of the earth.

The Americans have even devised a title for themselves to rival that of the Israelis’ self-designation as"God’s Chosen People." The Americans call themselves "the indispensable people."

Friday, September 24, 2010

Highs being retested..

I am watching this market carefully. Still have my short position.
I believe (so far) that this is only a retest, but I could change my mind..We'll see...

Above, end of day readings on Friday, the 24th, from Clickcharts...

Dialogue before the storm.

I had an experience today in a public place where there was a television set running. Being there by myself, as is my habit, I turned the set off, to gather my thoughts. I regard television as mostly noise.

A young girl about 20 entered the room, and looked up at the TV on the wall. She said “Why is the TV off, is it broken?”

I said, “Yes, and it has been that way for 25 years or more.”

She then said to me “What do you mean?”

She was intrigued and puzzled and disturbed by my remark.

I said “Bread and Circuses” It’s like Rome, keep the people entertained, and they won’t care as you slowly steal everything of value from them. She had heard that before, I could tell this by her response.

Then I paused and said, “It’s worse than that, really. They are stealing our money, and also feeding us genetically modified foods, that will slowly kill us.” I explained quickly the issues there.

Then I said, “When they slaughter cows, they run them back and forth through a wooden pathway, and the cows never can see straight ahead, as that’s where a man with a sledge, drops them as they come through the gate at the end of the wooden pathway. The idea is to keep them distracted, turn them left and right, they never see what their fate is ’till the very end.”

Then I pointed to the TV and said, “You see, that’s your wooden pathway.”

Quietly, very quietly, looking down, she said “I get it.”

I saw her later that day in that same public place, looking down and looking “quite bummed out.” But I knew I had managed to reach one young person, about the deep core of our media soaked, twisted culture.

But I can’t in my own mind tell myself whether what I did was right or not……….

Thursday, September 23, 2010

Straight talk to some Russian Bankers by Mike Maloney...

I got these links from the Financial Sense Site

A guy named Mike Maloney talking straight talk to a bunch of Russian Bankers.

Very good presentation, very clear, and he managed to disturb the Bankers..

Mike says he’s speaking in the ‘belly of the beast’. Russian Bankers are not much different then ours…

This is interesting, amusing and a bit dramatic. Probably why Puplava has it on his site…!

Monday, September 20, 2010

$RUT at confluence of trendlines.

Although I wasn't expecting this morning's pop in the markets, I shouldn't have been surprised. The Irish woes have deepened, and the PPT probably is fighting a market drop. $VIX went up sharply, and so did the markets at the open, something that probably shouldn't ordinarily happen.

But the Russell is at a place now where three trendlines (two magenta and one green) are very close together as you can see, and that should be a nearly impossible place to make much further progress, I would think....

End of day update: Move went parabolic after my earlier posting, I have updated the chart to show where it ended up. It's at a hard resistance now, if it doesn't turn tomorrow than all logic is out the window and new levels of fraud are operating in this market...

Sunday, September 19, 2010

Myth and Madness - NYT

Myth and Madness

Christine O’Donnell is in a fantasy world. Literally.

“We’re rowdy, we’re passionate,” she told the enraptured crowd. “It reminds me of the C. S. Lewis Narnia books, where the little girl asks someone about Aslan the lion, who represents God, and she says with a little concern over such a fearsome lion, ‘Is he safe?’ And her friend says, ‘Safe? Who said anything about safe? Of course he isn’t safe. But he’s good.’ ”

She’s right that there’s an untamed beast rampaging through American politics. But this beast does not seem blessed; rather it has loosed a kind of ugliness and wildness in the land.

We the People in the Ruling Class Elites do think O’Donnell comes across as alarmingly loopy. But maybe she’s smart as a fox in doing a Single-White-Female, Fox anchor makeover to look more like her queen-maker, Sarah Palin.

She’s also smart to think of politics in terms of passion and myth — two elements Barack Obama was able to summon during his campaign that are sorely missing from his presidency.

She might have gone a broom too far, though, when she once told Bill Maher that she had “dabbled into witchcraft” and went on a date with a witch that included “a midnight picnic on a satanic altar.”

Obama’s bloodless rationality has helped spawn the right’s bloodletting of irrationality. His ivory tower approach to the nation’s fears and anxieties about the economy gave rise to a tower of angry babble. Tea Party is basically a big tent for anger.

The president’s struggle to connect and inspire passion is a dispiriting contrast to, as Yeats said, the worst, full of passionate intensity.

The first African-American president, who wrote in his memoir that he trained himself as a young man not to let his anger show in a suspicious white society, now faces anger on an unprecedented scale from a mostly white movement.

He seems weary of crisis management, conveying the attitude of the hero in “The Incredibles” who has to keep saving the world: “Sometimes I just want it to stay saved!”

The president seems put upon and impatient with reality while his foes seem happy to embrace fantasy.

Obama can connect with policy. He just can’t connect with the objects of policy. Empathy seems more like an abstract concept than something to practice.

He has never shaken off that slight patronizing attitude toward the working-class voters he is losing now, the ones he dubbed “bitter” during his campaign. There is no premium in trying to save people’s jobs and lift them up and give them health care if they feel that you can’t relate to them. That’s how Mayor Adrian Fenty lost his job, despite D.C.’s progress on schools and crime.

The insane have achieved political respectability while the sane act too good for it all. The irrational celebrate while the rational act bored and above-it-all.

When Rahm Emanuel leaves to go run for mayor in Chicago, all the blood will drain out of the White House. And Obama can go to Ben’s Chili Bowl for lunch every day and it won’t matter.

Thursday, September 16, 2010

The Ominous Silent Canary

The Ominous Silent Canary

Great article by JIM Willie..

By the way, getting closer to a short position in the markets...

Update: Just took small short position on $RUT, 12:00 Central time.

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

More charts suggesting topping actions...

Upper charts show $SPX sticking it's nose above important trendlines, lower chart shows indicators showing weakness, divergence.

Saying something similar to Hopper's recent Oscillator work.

Dead - by Larry Levine


"In my last missive I wrote “Although ‘roll over’ in the futures will continue through the week, a good deal of the volume is already trading in the December contract. The Labor Day vacation period is over. Rosh Hashanah is over. Roll over is essentially over. There are no more excuses to be made by Mr. Market as to why he wants to continue impersonating Rip Van Winkle. The coming weeks should be more lively…”

Monday, September 13, 2010

Hopper's oscillators

Hi Mark,

Back to my original oscilator, the lines show there only very little room to move up and more room down. Could be a double top?

Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Trading-wise I don't like anything I'm seeing.

All of these charts represent a kind of gridlock, and conventional indicators aren't acting real well either. Stochastics and MACD on daily are in contradiction. I am not in this market at the moment. Too weird out there...

Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Armageddon is getting closer.

Jim Willie is saying some important things. The bursting of the bond bubble could be relatively close. We have a double bottom forming for sure on the 5 year yields, and arguably on the 10 year as well. so, the logic is this:

Jim Willie:

“Watch the Gold/Oil Ratio, which is poised to rise noticeably. Gold is the commodity king, namely it is money. The worldwide recession will keep the crude oil price subdued until the USTreasury bubble pops. Then, at that time, several major commodity hedges will jump in price, rendering a cost shock to the USEconomy. It is broken to the core, broken at the foundation, broken from grotesque imbalances, broken from vast pervasive insolvency. An inflationary depression lies dead ahead! Notice the recognition of Gold, its distinction as the king of commodities. The usual accepted hedge against the USDollar in Wall Street and London accounts has traditionally been crude oil.”

Me talking here:

The key words here are “inflationary depression”.

This is the final nail in the coffin. The bond bubble bursting implies higher interest rates and (much)higher prices for energy and other imported necessities. Employment, and the tax base collapses. Sovereign debt crisis for America rapidly becomes a currency crisis. With employment collapsing, money scarce, and the purchasing power of the money collapsing as well, all social and political structures collapse.

Similar events at varying magnitudes will occur across the West.

My thinking, this could all happen within a year of the first real recognition that the bubble has “burst”.

There is an earlier technical signal that would confirm a bond bubble bust then the upper trendline failure I have been mentioning. The 5 and 10 year yield curves have a sort of double bottom in place, or forming, as I have mentioned. The high point between the double bottoms, is at a yield of 2.8% on the 5 year, and 4% on the ten year notes. Those levels, when exceeded, will suggest to a lot of Bond technicians that the moment of truth has arrived.

If investors hear these concerned raised by the technicians, it may precipitate the crisis.

I would encourage all of you out there to examine these bond charts and familiarize yourself with the patterns I am pointing to...

Looking at the charts themselves, it is entirely possible that this point of recognition could be less than a year, or as little as some months out, depending on the way the charts develop...

Take steps to protect some physical precious metals...

Chart symbols :$TNX and $FVX referenced to Bigcharts.

Friday, September 3, 2010

Another turn coming?

Looks like it. I got knocked out of the bus going north, but it looks like I may be able to ride one going the other way, soon. The candlesticks showing up look like tops, and look at the Russell $VIX below, the volatility index is in the bands, and oversold. The chart at top shows the $SPX nearly at a high trendline, offering resistance.

Watch the $VIX's intraday, for an entry point for a short today or Tuesday...

Saturday update:

I am noticing that there are trendlines above that correspond to daily Bollinger Band levels. Those are at about 1300-ish for the $SPX and about 660-ish on the $RUT...we might get up there, and it might be later than Tuesday.

There's also still a chance that whatever top we get may not be a major one, weekly and monthly charts look like we're closer to a bottom then a top on those time frames..

Ideological War Spells Doom for America’s Schoolkids

Students are returning to school this week. But they’re not heading back to class — they’re walking straight into a war zone. Our kids have become cannon fodder for two rival ideologies battling to control America’s future.

In one camp are conservative Christians and their champion, the Texas State Board of Education; in the other are politically radical multiculturalists and their de facto champion, President Barack Obama. The two competing visions couldn’t be more different. And the stakes couldn’t be higher. Unfortunately, whichever side wins — your kid ends up losing.

Thursday, September 2, 2010

Hitting resistance on $RUT.

Hitting resistance (top chart). Quite a bit of positive divergence on weeklies (bottom chart).

A pullback here could be a buying opportunity.