Saturday, August 22, 2015

CRASH 'TIL MID-OCTOBER No surprise, but the math suggests this goes on in fits and starts until around the 14th through 16th of October, then a (bear) market rally. I have no price targets yet...

Tuesday, August 18, 2015

More on Donald Trump... I think we’re all on knifes edges until the election in 2016, both with regard to collapse and war. Watch the election of Trump, I notice he’s in the same camp as Obama. What do I mean by that? I mean, he’s going after the NeoCons. He has openly mocked both Lindsay Graham and John McCain. He’s tearing holes in all of the NeoCon Republicans. He tearing holes in NeoCon Hillary. Obama, like Trump is a Rothschild agent, not in the Rockefeller/Bush/Clinton group. His parting shot as President against the other camp is to assist Trump in taking down Hillary. New York Post’s Edward Klein wrote on March 14th 2015 that sources told him it was Valerie Jarrett who leaked the details of Hillary’s criminal use of private email for official business. If you look out on the web, you’ll find that Obama and Bill Clinton ‘had it out’ on a golf course recently. One can guess what that was about. Trump is also in favour of the Iran arms deal, another anti-NeoCon position. This, even though both of his children are married to Israeli’s. So if we can avoid a NeoCon inspired war until President Trump takes office, then war becomes a much less likely option, after that point. I believe the ‘RESET’ has been put off because the balance of power between the Rothschild and Rockefeller faction is still precarious. It’s the Rockefeller/NeoCons that are fighting to maintain Hegemony, and trying to prevent the reset. Although I don’t buy into everything that Ben Fulford has to say, I think he’s right that the NeoCon faction is being taken down, but with considerable resistance. This is the Geopolitical reason why I think the revaluation of gold will wait a while, possibly until after the 2016 elections.
The Index XAU represents gold and silver. Many people expect it to bottom here, but though it may bounce, I expect it to follow the magenta line down to the single digits level. In this chart, timewise, it points to May of 2020, on another one, it points to later in that year. Either way, the bottom is a ways out.

Sunday, August 9, 2015

You know there’s a small chance that the U.S. has one small advantage over China in what’s coming. We haven’t had a ‘New Deal’ style spending program since Roosevelt, though Kennedy’s ‘New Frontier’ has been likened to a version of it. China has been doing intense infrastructure development for a while, a lot of ‘new’ cities, factories, etc. and is somewhat ‘overbuilt’, but the U.S. is ripe for a big makeover. The coming crash will make the Republican drive towards austerity moot, as it will come on it’s own with massive deflation, and defaults at several levels. Eventually new thinking will emerge, and the one thing that hasn’t been done here for a long time, internal infrastructure development, is an available option. So what if the world doesn’t want our dollars at that point? Globalism will be about dead anyway, as well as conspicuous consumption. Look at the Baltic Dry Index, or King Copper, or oil, nation states can no longer hope for reciprocal stimulation through trade. The global demand is just not there. So nations will just have to go internal for a while, clean up the mal-investment, and become more self sufficient in many areas as there won’t be any other options. I’m reminded of how Nazi Germany mobilized and found substitute materials and technology for things they were forbidden to buy due to sanctions put in after WWI. We certainly don’t want their political philosophy, but in a world were international trade is ‘frozen’, we will have to self-stimulate to recover, and there is a justification for it based on our depleted condition. This came to mind as I just read the new 10 dollar bill (is rumoured) will be issued with Eleanor Roosevelt on it. Why would the elites remind us of the Roosevelts just now? Maybe it’s a hint of things to come. Now I’m as mystified as anyone else as to what Donald Trump represents, but if you did want to do a ‘New Deal’ program in the U.S., the Republican party would have to be taken down considerably, as they would oppose such a program strenuously. Whether ‘The Trump’ is controlled opposition, or a genuine organic development, the hatchet job he is doing on the Republican party would be an essential prerequisite for this to happen.
Assuming we've topped in the $SPX, where and when does the model place the next important bottom? The next bottom of equal importance to the ones in 2002 and 2009, if the current topping process plays out, is at around 520 on the S&P 500 and the ideal date, is around 7/7/2021. That is the ideal date of course, and it might be ahead or behind that date by a few months. Price will be the more meaningful measure so when we get near 520, the bottom should be in.

Sunday, August 2, 2015

Like the German market, the $SPX showing signs of upward exhaustion, and hitting the 'zero' node, where most things go to die. There is a theory going around that Europe crashes first, and that money flows into U.S. stocks, buying some more price action, and time. Autumn will be interesting.