Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Dollar ready to break out of bullish wedge near .25 node.



The Dollar Index bottomed, as far as I can tell, on 9/17/09 at a node value of .25554, nominal, which is 2.2% away from ideal.

Monday, September 28, 2009

Friday, September 25, 2009

The announcement of 'World Government'

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/09/25/obama-announce-expansion-global-cooperation/

The Fox News title is "Obama to Usher In New World Order at G-20"

Exponential Trendlines plotted against normal dates rather than Nodes.




Notice that when plotted in normal 'linear time', the trendlines slowly curve...This is covered in my book.

A great essay by George Ure

Although I'm skeptical of George's 'predictive linguistics', I think he and Alex Jones have the economic/political situation sorted out pretty well.

http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm

Here's his essay:

G-20 Stress

In what seems almost like a replay of the 'battle of Seattle' the scene of the present G-20 meetings in Pittsburgh is not exactly a glowing example of peaceful protest nor restrained response as 20-odd people have been arrested so far at the G-20. The usual tactics on both sides - running small groups of anarchists versus police with tear gas and rubber bullets.

From an historic perspective, these are interesting times to be sure: The US, founded on principles of freedom has seen the ascendancy of the non-human corporate persona which has come to dominate not only the conduct of governance through huge lobby and special interest groups that essentially run public policy via their sway, but at the same time has become blinded to the evolution of the corporate Super Class by corporate media which seems intent on not discussing the Up/Down issues and casts it universally as either economic or contained within a childish right/left framework.

Thus, the G-20 may be thought of more accurately as a corporate global governance conference than world leaders meeting to address basic human needs. It's against this background that the US is being dethroned as the lone global super power amidst headlines like "US May Face 'Armageddon' If China, Japan Don't Buy Debt."

Filling some of the predictive linguistic expectations out of the web bot project, we can't help but notice the deployment of 'acoustic weapons on US soil' - the devices which once turned on cause excruciating pain. That so-called 'non-lethal' weapons may have long term health consequences doesn't seem to much concern authorities although they are getting plenty of attention among protesters and those concerned with maintenance of free speech.

My personal take on the danger of non-lethal weapons is that they provide a 'migration path' (to use the marketing term) which provides the increasing intertwined military/police complex on American soil a way to edge soldiers who would never begin use of lethal force against U.S. citizens a way to slowly work up to it.

The use of 'migration pathing' is also clear as the New World Order of the Bush Era is being rolled out under the context of 'maintain global economic order'. Reuters has a pretty good piece on how the "New world economic order takes shape at the G20."

We can clearly see how global super government will eventually steal not only American autonomy, but will begin to take on a life of its own through the global public purse, eventually moving toward global taxes in order to fund hugely profitable globalist pet projects in the area of environmental, food production and so forth.

The use (consciously or otherwise) Hegelian dialectic - create a terrible problem and then offer the prepackaged 'right' solution - allows the corporate globalist gang to pocket wealth from scams like derivatives, roll the crisis over onto the public through financial collapse, and stick the public with the bill while those at the top skate.

While the U.S. Supreme Court recently indicated that it is open to an even further expansion of corporate/special interest use of money to buy government policy favorable to corporate/special interest objectives, American families are kept off-balance by a war in Afghanistan (where we sadly lost five more on our soldiers overnight) and by a 'war on terror' punctuated by period arrests and claims about web use to find bomb supplies.

You might want to print out this article from this morning's Washington post, by the way, since in the linguistics we are headed toward some kind of control/licensure/restrictions on the internet in 2010. All in the name of keeping us safe, don'tcha know.

All of which is not to pass judgment on whether the stew of current events is either good or bad; it's just what it is to the aware observer - the once Constitutional governance of America being usurped/replaced by corporate mastery of public policy which allows the very greediest of humans to hide their wealth and abuses behind the corporate veil on the pretext that it's really what's best for all of us; and they know what's best for us since they are so much better than us commoners.

Like royalty that first Americans first fled, then defeated, the corporate masters have gone global in scope and are arranging the next steps of consolidated global governance in Pittsburgh.

Way back when, I won a regional SDX award for a story about how at the height of the Cold War there was an active corporate nuclear trade involving the Soviet Union and the West. In that report I noted that one could take the Cold War as a sham since there was growing nuclear trade between the sides.

To update that perspective, I similarly see governments following a corporate lead; doing 'roll-ups' of countries under regional banners like the European Union and eventually a North American Union. If, along the way, we have to suffer through a collapse of the economy to hobble America, then I guess that's what will be supplied.

If you thought America had lost control of its supposed representatives in Washington, who didn't return phone calls or respond to voter demands in the 'too big to fail' scam, you ain't seen nothing yet. Just think what a fine world we'll have when there's another layer of government over America run by the corporate proxies. Fun world, huh?

The world is waking up - and well meaning, peace & freedom loving humans are continuing to connect on the net and a new kind of consciousness is arising. By oh, next summer or so, we may be seeing a fair bit of confrontation between regular humans and corporate humans. Should be interesting, to say the least. Which is why the FCC's 'net neutrality' will have to be undermined by the PowersThatBe. Can't have a globally connecting mind questioning those who a busily seizing the reins and profits for themselves and their owners, can we?

If you have taken your morning double-dose of cynicism pills, you might be tempted to speculate that the talk of 'net neutrality' is nothing more than another fund raising scheme hatched by the democons and republicorps to bulk up their coffers before 'hoodwink' time (elections) roll around again. Trust you read Richard Doman's piece this week: "Republicans back off net neutrality gambit"?

Thursday, September 24, 2009

If the Elliott people should turn out to be right, and a wave 'C' is coming, where is resistance?



You can see the big overhead resistance for this rally, and should the market really fall here, there's very little existing below the old March '09 bottom. The largest resistance is just below 4000 on the DOW, and it ain't much....


What does Fibonacci say? Well, if yesterday was the top of 'B', which I suspect, then the levels on the DOW would be as follows:

C = .618 * A = 5093

C = .786 * A = 3774

C = 1.000 * A = 2098

Pretty scary. I see a potential match between the two methods at 3774 or so, don't you?

The first Great Depression.

The first Great Depression...1930's? No, earlier than that. Read about the crash of 1869 which initiated the first Great Depression. The parallels with today are interesting.


http://www.safehaven.com/article-14559.htm


I appear to have read the charts correctly yesterday, so maybe Elliott Wave 'C' or '3' of the great crash of our era has started. Buckle up, prepare for major bank failures as derivatives collapse.
Mayhem is coming...

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

SPX and NDX hourlies...





Do I hear a Bear growling?

This screenshot of 'Clickcharts' a U.K. based, free charting service shows their 'Trend Indicator', which purports to show, based on price and volume, whether buying or selling should predominate. Sort of a volume weighted price oscillator. See also, the hourly chart of the $NDX. Some indicators are falling below the center line. The two charts basically agree. Let's see what happens next....

We all know the Federal Reserve will always try to keep the markets up, by hook or crook, and I do mean crook. So let's see what they do with this...

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Some good sentiment info here...from Mish Shedlock

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/09/buy-dip-mentality-fully-entrenched.html

Excerpt:

"The opinion that the market can and will continue to rise is becoming ever more widespread, and ironically the bulls ALL say the same thing, namely "everybody else is bearish".

Mutual fund (MuFu) managers are not bearish, that much is certain. At 4.2%, the the MuFu cash-to-assets ratio is one of the lowest in history, in fact lower than at the 2000 top, and only a hair above the 2007 low. Those stats (from a friend) are from July. Given the continued rally, MuFu cash on hand has probably decreased even more in August.

The Dow's dividend yield is now at the level of the the 1968 top and the September 1929 top. Good luck with that!"

The Concentration of Economic Power by Banks and Corporations...New Research

http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/40886/title/Networks_reveal_concentrated_ownership_of_corporations

I was actually a little surprised to not see Goldman Sachs in the top ten of the list provided, unless their influence is hidden in some of the other companies shown...

Another reason the Nasdaq may quit about here...



You have a very heavy congestion price zone (see the red, horizontal bars) right overhead, overbought weekly indicators, and momentum is at best flat or slightly declining..look at the MACD histogram. The market could travel slightly higher, but if it were really to traverse all of this prior overhead congestion, then we are on our way to the moon.

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Some market technicians possibly calling a top here...



I know that Steve Hochberg at Elliott Wave International is calling a top near here,

and here are two other sites talking about tops:

http://www.safehaven.com/article-14518.htm

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article13552.html

The second guy is using Fibonacci Time ratios, which are occasional useful, but I have found them too infrequently to be generally usable. They can work, however.

My trendline work suggests that both the $NDX and the $SPX have the right characteristics by my system to be at a top, we'll see what Monday brings....

Thursday, September 17, 2009

What does Fibonacci math say about the S&P?

Well,if we did an analysis of Wave A = Wave C, we get 1158.

If C = .618 of A, I get 1048, which we've already passed through.

If C = .786 of A, I get 1097.

These are the normal Fibonacci targets...

Of course, as I post this, the market looks like it's making a top (the candlestick looks right), so we'll see what happens....

I am noticing this morning that I have an exponential trendline at 1075, and the weekly upper Bollinger Band is at 1076, so there is a lot of resistance here...

On the chart set I did yesterday, on the middle chart, it's the ascending Blue line, that's at 1075 this morning, and the high for the day so far has been 1074.77.

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

How Odd, Very Odd...

On this link:

http://solari.com/blog/

If you page down, you will see that 4 financial people of high rank have committed suicide or died recently. This normally occurs at huge Bear market bottoms (like 1933), not tops.

Perhaps the Powers That Be are experiencing internal conflicts, and resolving them rather roughly, who knows? But this is not normal...

It's going to be a tough autumn and winter...

Just to mention...resistance is close

The $NDX in particular is now entering some powerful resistance zones from March '08 bottoms. The .618 retrace is at 1773.05, also coincident with heavy resistance zones. The $SPX is also running into old resistance around now...

Current $SPX and $NDX charts with today's advance...









Charts updated at 11:40 CST....

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

O.K., Now I have Denninger figured out...

If you go over to his website today, he's throwing praise and hosannas all over his Hero, Glenn Beck. Pardon me, while I throw up...

How did the International Banking Cartel get started anyway?

Here's my take on it. You heard it here first:

We are coming into a time when most people around the world look to the U.S. as the source of a blight, and their own governments as equally corrupt partners, who willing distributed toxic financial instruments throughout the world economic system. That's why there may be a greater case for intra-national conflicts over and above inter-national conflicts, not that conventional wars won't happen. But it has struck me, that from the time of the first deployment of Nuclear weapons to the present, elites around the world (whom I feel are ' a priori' dirty, anyway) have seen that this idea of starting a war with your neighbors, killing a few million of them, and you lose a few million, was no longer a feasible project. In the old days, after a war, the political elites on the losing side would pay a huge price, but the industrial elites often would slink back into something like their prewar obscurity, but with a lot more cash. In the Nuclear age, the industrial/banking elites realized that wars of that type could land them in a nuclear fireball, the homeland was no longer a safe place to be while you sent your poor plebeians 'over there' to fight, so their predatory instincts had to find a new paradigm. I think the mimicking of tactics in the banking industry against their middle classes from country to country ( think of little, bankrupt, Iceland here, or Eastern Europe, broke), shows an unparalleled international cooperation and communication among power elites, that historically, are more generally rivals. These, I believe, are the 'unintended consequences' of the Nuclear age.

This is how the elites of the world decided to stop quarreling with each other and join hands to screw us all, directly, without the normal vehicle of international war. The war machine still exists, and creates small wars with countries that can't fight back, and demonizes them, to keep that part of the game going..., but between 'advanced countries', it's now a Banker's Game, not a War Game.

Another way of looking at the $NDX...




Note that the bottom chart has a 9 day smoothed average of the 5-point difference formula for numeric derivatives placed against a trendline chart plotted in normal time. Note also that this chart, when it peaks as the market hits the trendlines looks pretty significant. This format is much more readable, but a real pain to produce, particularly with this potential new indicator I'm playing with. You might see that the indicator chart is high currently, and with my limited experience I can't say much except that if that indicator turns back down as we approach the upper trendline, that might be a signal.. You can see I have only plotted two of the trendlines I normally use, but they are the significant ones at the moment..

Those of you who now have my book and spreadsheets, can email me for instructions on how to do this...

Sunday, September 13, 2009

A couple of links from readers...

These are both good...

http://www.gainspainscapital.com/index.php

http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2009-0905-3a.mp3

Also, any of you who haven't gone to the Elliot Wave site I pointed out yesterday, should really now do so, for sure.

That gentleman has some pictures and video captures from yesterday's events in Washington D.C. I am under the impression that the media is downplaying what transpired there, but the pictures reveal the beginnings of a social movement that is clearly gaining speed and power. There may have been a million people in Washington, and they weren't particularly there to do a 9/11 memorial service. They were really MAD. I'm sure the Establishment was scared by this (not that they weren't pretty much expecting it!), so don't be surprised if after a reprieve, things start to move quickly. Homeland security takes over control of the World Wide Web at the end of this month (I'll bet some of you didn't know that). We could see censorship, or who knows what.

Update: Some estimates of the crowds were at levels of 1.5 to 2 million, but television-land said it was a just a few tens of thousands. What does that tell you?

Saturday, September 12, 2009

Thursday, September 10, 2009

A little bit on $Silver




The latest candlesticks are topping patterns...

The exponential chart shows an 'X' axis value close to .50 and the price action close to the .618 retrace. Both of these are negative for a further rise for a while. Also the $Gold/ $Silver ratio is suggesting a top here...

Free Technical Analysis site

Thomas N. Bulkowski is known for his books on chart patterns. He has provided a free site that documents chart patterns. It is here:

http://thepatternsite.com/

Well worth a look, I have bookmarked it for my own review....

Wednesday, September 9, 2009

A wedge to be proud of.

Liquidity drying up....

Stocks are doomed.....

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/excess-liquidity-game-coming-end

$USD at overlapping .25 major and .50 minor nodes...


As of yesterday, the $USD index had fallen below it's daily Bollinger Bands...We are in a window when the number of Dollar Bulls is extremely low. This is consistent with the fact that the dollar index is at a major .250 node (actual .25181) and a minor .500 node hits on the 10th of September. Also, there could be a maximum of pessimism as we approach the anniversary of 9/11...So there is a chance here, for a roughly synchronized pattern of equity declines, renewed dollar strength, and declines in precious metals.

This is a lot to think about, and of course, none of it may happen. There are things lined up though, that could make this scenario possible.

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

$SPX - RSI in a channel...



Should see another little top soon....

I think the negative divergence in this RSI channel, gives the Bears something to look at, both in terms of another top, near term, as RSI hits the top of the channel (again), and maybe the final fall of these indicators below the 50 level on RSI and on the Ultimate Oscillator would constitute a sell signal, overall...

Interesting move by Charlie Sheen.

It's being reported by Alex Jones that Charlie Sheen is going to try to engage President Obama in a dialogue about 9/11. A very gutsy tactic, I hope he has some success. Even if the government didn't cause 9/11, I have read numerous reports about various foreign intelligence agencies giving the U.S. warnings about it, months in advance. There's quite a bit being hidden, incompetence at the very least.

Important, current market snapshots.




Trendlines are holding....

Sunday, September 6, 2009

Max Kaiser and Stacy Herbert dissect current econo-politics

Max Kaiser is sort of a comedy act with high academic and vocational credentials, and his sidekick Stacy Herbert is the stabilizer in this duo... Max rants intelligently, you always learn something when he rants, but it's full of dark humor. It has to be this way to match the world we are now living in...

Was that a good introduction? I don't know, it was meant to be, though...

http://ia311036.us.archive.org/3/items/MaxKeiserRadio-TheTruthAboutMarkets-05September2009/tam050909.mp3

I find myself laughing through much of Max and Stacy's broadcasts even if I feel a little guilty afterwards...give it a try....

Their main site is here:

http://maxkeiser.com/

Lots of interesting market and economic commentary, woven in with European flavored existential awareness.

Friday, September 4, 2009

An interesting comment from Karl Denninger...

As some of you know, I have linked to Karl Denninger's site from time to time. I happened to send him an email asking him why he believed the official 9/11 story was all there was. His reply was, well, like this:

You're dead wrong Mark.

Another nut for the ban list.


This is what you get when you ask a close minded person, to "open up" a little.

I didn't make any wild assertions, just asked if he saw any inconsistencies in the official story.

He is still a very astute observer, worth reading, but he has issues....

Don't bother emailing him, he rejects all mail as spam (you can get around it, once only)...I've never seen anyone who is 'public' in his sense do that either...

the current market

As of noon today CST, he $NDX and the $SPX have both rallied up to Fibonacci points of .618 and .500 retraces of their decline from 8/28. The $SPX also has overhead resistance from a previous bottom at around 1015 or so..This could be where they stop and resumes their declines but we must watch cautiously here...

The Global system..what it's evolving towards...




This series describes pretty well what is already happening, and shows, I think where the future lies...

http://www.theglobalist.com/StoryId.aspx?StoryId=7962


http://www.theglobalist.com/StoryId.aspx?StoryId=7958


http://www.theglobalist.com/storyid.aspx?StoryId=7965



Parts 1,2, and 3 linked above...

Thursday, September 3, 2009

The rise of 'scarcity industrialism'

As if things couldn't get worse for the U.S., which hopes 'green jobs' will restore it's industrial core, here's the truth: We haven't got the resource base to do this.

China supplies most of the world's rare earth minerals that makes much of high-tech possible. They've been selling most of their output to us, but that's about to change.

This article is a bit long, but well worth the trouble to read in it's entirety.

http://www.energybulletin.net/50020

It sucks to be us....

Current $SPX chart...



The horizontal dashed lines are Fibonacci retracements, so the market is reacting to both an exponential downsloping trendline and the .382 retracement, and proximaty to a .500 node.

Wednesday, September 2, 2009

Get ready for more bank giveaways, er..., bailouts...

A friend of mine from Bartlesville, Oklahoma supplied me with this link:

http://trueslant.com/matttaibbi/2009/09/01/bailout-propaganda-begins/

I also am starting a parallel blog on BullBear.com

I am posting basically the same content on BullBear.com. No decision yet whether I'll maintain two of these indefinitely or not, or consolidate back to one...but for now, I will be in both places...

A few technical comments...

Adding to the bearish viewpoint, the weekly MACD on $VIX has crossed over, and the $SPX has fallen through the 'blue' trendline I drew the other day.

Tuesday, September 1, 2009

$VIX breaks out...




I think the tight Bollinger Bands on $VIX are about to open....

The list of banks going to be hammered by bad Commercial Real Estate

Here is a list of banks, whose stocks could be eminently short-able...

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/bank-holding-companies-ranked-by-commercial-real-estate-loans/

This shows listed exposure to commercial real estate sorted from the greatest exposure to the least...

Given that this sector is beginning to have real problems, this is a list to watch..