Friday, March 27, 2009

Latest $SPX charts...

We have a proximity to the crossover in the top chart, which can cause trend changes, also a .500 node (middle chart) is close, although I associate it's effects with the bottom just recently put in......

Latest $NDX charts with yesterdays' high...

Notice the price action has climbed to the major trendline (blue line,middle chart), even as we are in the vicinity of the crossover (top chart). looks like a pretty good pullback should happen here, though not necessarily the end of the rally out of early March.

Monday, March 23, 2009

$NDX charts

This market may interpret the forming crossover with the impending trendline touch for a pause in the uptrend.

A lot of volume today, perhaps the bottom is in after all...

It's hard to argue with the strength we saw today, perhaps we are seeing the counter trend rally I anticipated for early April. Here are the $SPX charts, and the bottom one shows we have gotten close to a .5000 node, (.4783) at a price of 666.79, so, it could be...

Friday, March 20, 2009

Comment on $gold, $silver, and the Dollar index...

Although I've said repeatedly that these previously posted charts are 'young', being all in the vicinity of their .250 nodes, the government's plan to monetize the debt is so ridiculous and extreme, that the fundamentals here, could override the technicals. Meaning that the dollar could start to collapse here, and the precious metals could soar, even though normally they would waste time in a sideways correction until a .500 node was reached. So be forewarned, we are in uncharted waters, the inmates are running the asylum, so anything could happen.

Market update...

It does look as though the market is rolling over to the downside...The crossovers and trendlines are doing their work, as expected...You can see the $NDX failure a little better here then yesterday, the $SPX chart is similar...Still watching for an early April bottom of some importance...

Thursday, March 19, 2009

$SPX and $NDX charts

Two charts here, you can see the proximity of a crossover on the $SPX (top chart) and the trendline penetration and possible reversal on the $NDX (bottom) chart. Of course it ain't cooked yet, we need follow through to see if the market really reverses back down here...Have to wait and see...

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Key dates to watch ...

Mike Swanson, of Wall Street Window, speculates that one or both of these dates may cause the market to gap up, and consequently cause the market to top. Then the market turns down.
April 2 - mark-to-market vote by FASB
April 8 - uptick rule vote by SEC

If you check a few posts back, I came up with approximately the same dates, but I think these will be potential bottoming dates rather then topping dates...

To save you trouble of looking, here are the previous posts:

If you check these previous posts, you'll see that I came up with April 1st and 7th, one day earlier then each of his....essentially the same targets...

Saturday, March 14, 2009

$SILVER Charts

This is my most complex set of charts, currently. The main trendlines from the largest time scales are bold and thick, and the two sets of 2nd order trendlines are thin and dotted, respectively. These come from the fact that the decline so far is a '5' which I decompose into two distincts "3's". Nonetheless, little change from last time, I still think the larger pattern is down (or maybe sideways), as the .500 major node has not been reached.
We're still hanging in the vicinity of the .250 nodes...

Friday, March 13, 2009

United States Oil (USO)

This looks slightly early as a 1.00 node (middle, 1.272 chart), and I am wondering if the incipient crossover in the bottom chart scuttles this rally, to let it rise at one of the other two 1.00 nodes. Or, it may be real and a just a little early, after all?

Current $Gold charts

There are some interesting trendline interactions, but no nodes are close by..
I would think the larger pattern is still down....

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

$SPX charts

Notice the trendline crossover about to happen on the top spreadsheet chart, and the .500 node getting close on the bottom spreadsheet chart... Breadth indicators (shown at very top) lead me to think we have more downside yet, so I vote with the node over the crossover..see earlier posts for dates..

Saturday, March 7, 2009

The centre cannot hold.

I'm reminded of Yeat's famous poem here.

There is talk of bailouts for homeowners who can't make their mortgage payments. The question is never asked why, after a while, anyone would continue to pay mortgage payments if a few could simply claim 'hardship', to get out of them. After a while, as the economy worsens, it will be hard to find anyone who will keep up with their mortgage, and then credit card payments and some taxes will be ignored. Then the Banks and perhaps some levels of Government will find out what it means when their requests for payments become 'discretionary'. Even without the moral hazard of a Federal Bailout, if people have to choose between food and taxes, or food and their house payment, guess which goes?

Rental properties could also suffer, as renters lose jobs, are evicted, and dispossessed homeowners can't fill the appearing vacancies because their credit score is now so bad. At job losses approaching 1 million a month, 18 months of this could bring this about. Current national rental vacancies are about 10%, highest since before the 1960's.

So many apartment complexes could go bankrupt as well, and no bank will want to pick up these properties because they are no longer profitable. Who will the remaining renters pay their rent to? O.K., the banks, but it could be a loser for them. I don't know. And I suppose quite a few people will be living in their cars. Local city governments will also lose tax revenue from failures in the rental market, just like the loss in property taxes from dispossessed homeowners.

I won't even mention the lost tax revenues from failed commercial properties as 50+ retail chains have disappeared.

So where will all the money come from to maintain the local roads and water supplies, and police and fire protection, if local tax revenues fall hard? If most of the banks fail as well, as people 'forget' to make payments to them,the velocity of money will approach zero.

This could be when we'll all find out, what systemic collapse feels like.

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.

Yeats, 1920

Thursday, March 5, 2009

$NYSI2 chart

If I had to guess, I'd say a bottom looks likely in early April, wouldn't you?
This matches well with the .5000 node on $SPX...See the earlier posts on this...

Tuesday, March 3, 2009

latest $NDX charts...

Notice that $NDX is also approaching a .5000 node, but it is further out. Right now I lean towards the $SPX charts being a better indicator of a proximate bottom. The .5000 node on the middle $NDX chart is at around 5/26/09...Note that there are major crossovers forming (both primary and second order)on the upper chart(1.382) that will come in around 4/1/09, and that may be significant as it's in the range we see for the .500 $SPX node at 4/7/09...