Friday, May 30, 2008

Three trendline charts for $NDX...





All of these charts, using various combinations of previous pivots, are suggesting a top is now in..The second chart shows a double trendline crossover, which is a pretty powerful trend change warning...

Thursday, May 29, 2008

12:45 update..



We are coming up right up to the major trendline that stopped the advance on May 19th...

Where we are now..12:00 eastern time...


$NDX has just about reached the 62% retrace (2021.25) of the October '07 to March '08 drop..this is it's second visit to this level...Exponential resistance is above this at 2025 and 2032...

On 60 minute charts, market is overbought relative to RSI, and daily put/call ratios are consistant with a top..



Here is one of the Intermediate trendline charts showing the blue downsloping trendline being approached and almost touched again...

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Intermediate term chart of $NDX



A bounce today..but also near exponential resistance as well as 50% retrace of down move so far..,.The thick diagonal trendlines are generated off of the run from July '06 to the October top while the smaller trendlines forming in an almost vertical fashion are the exponential trendlines created by the March to May, recent rally..Having extended them out (or in this case, down steeply and slightly to the right)they seem to intersect in late July '08 (on a slightly differnt chart), agreeing with the intersection of nodes in the earlier post...

Sunday, May 25, 2008

Node comparison of $NDX major and recent swings






Here you can see (on the right) the dates and prices of significant swing points on the $NDX, and the gold colored dates are periods of time when both swings have node dates in common. The date "7/22/08" has my attention here...

Friday, May 23, 2008

Market continues down...

I am in the process of moving..so my posts might be a little less frequent for a couple of weeks, but relax and enjoy the ride down (in the markets) in the meantime...I have some tentative dates for a significant bottom around July 22 or so, but this will need verification as we get closer to that time period..Will try to post some charts supporting this conclusion over the weekend...

Regards,
Mark L.

P.S. My math is suggesting that the recent rally from March, that just ended, is a Wave 2 (as I can see a completed 5 wave pattern from Oct '07 to March '08, that being Wave 1), and we are more than likely beginning Wave 3 down now...Further, if we get a bottom in mid-late July as I expect, that may only be the end of Wave 1 of Wave 3...Again, verification awaits...

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Wow..the market crumbles here in spite of high put/call and $TRIN

The Bear is back!

But the market should have little upside past any pending retest..




In spite of the odds for another little rally, the overall pattern is clear..Here you can see the McClellan Summation Index has exceeded the general trendline that defines "High" markets...so going long here for anything other than a very short term trade would not be wise..

Expect another retest of the highs shortly...

Very high put/call ratios and a high $trin readings, means a retest is imminent...The market may only get to the bottom of the trendline that failed..we'll see....

Monday, May 19, 2008

Current Exponential chart - $NDX



This looks toppy...The lines that are curving down towards the price action, (that are fainter) are coming from the larger pattern from mid '06...

Friday, May 16, 2008

$NDX intermediate charts..



I see what looks like a possible limit to the rally (if it pushes higher than the current limits) on the left-most chart presented here... the price action looks like it is approaching the down sloping yellow trend line, and the intersection point looks to be at or around the .5000 node on that chart. Bears watching...

The 62% retrace - weekly Bollinger Bands levels still being tested..

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Like waiting for paint to dry....



Here you can see Chaikin Money Flow diverging with price, and about to turn negative.

Waiting for tops to finish their job is a lot like watching paint dry sometimes...

Monday, May 12, 2008

Rally today on low volume...

It looks like a retest of the highs for the $NDX, for other indexes a less spectacular day..

I think we'll see this rally fail, as it looks like a retest inside of the daily Bollinger Bands on low volume...John Bollinger sees those setups at rally tops and climax bottoms...Intermediate trend change points often look like this...

Wednesday, May 7, 2008

Today's Intermediate Term charts






Undoubtedly, a bounce tomorrow as the price action is caught between some "close together" trendlines. That said, this was still an expected reversal day..Probably, the Bear has returned...

Nice reversal day... Here's my $NDX Elliot count for the $NDX..




This is a textbook pattern...Expect another 5 waves down, using about the same time durations and price declines as the last move from October to March...

Friday, May 2, 2008

yet another bearish wedge...




Rather elegant one though...

Intermediate Charts with today's high..












Trendlines were touched today in several places, and the Fibonacci relationship pointed out yesterday evening seemed to hold...Monday will tell the tale of where we are...

gasoline revisted...


http://marketmathematics.blogspot.com/2008/04/energy-markets.html#links

Note the in the link above, the ideal top was mathematically 4/21/08, in fact the the actual top was 4/24/08...not bad...

Thursday, May 1, 2008

Standard Fibonacci method..


Though not foolproof, many traders look for a zigzag pattern of two moves of equal price change to end or complete a move...

Intermediate term charts







It looks like we could go a little higher here, but there are plenty of trendline targets close above that could stop this, unfortunately I don't see any major nodes on this scale that would signal completion...

Variations on a wedge...



Here is an update on the $NDX wedge, as you can see, the top trend line in this wedge is slightly unclear. The Violet upper trendline has more touchpoints and is therefore probably more reliable, but suggests still more upside is possible. The Blue upper trendline suggests we are at the top, and the overbought indications on RSI, also suggest this...Time will tell..