Lately, call buying leads major tops by a few days...

Notice also the 'green mountains' of the CMF price volume oscillator...one of my favorite indicators...

Clickcharts view of the markets...

This is based on their algorithm of price and volume, green means buy, and red means sell or sell short...
The top one uses an ETF (IWM) to simulate the Russell 2000...

I note the Fed was in there playing and pumping (I'm sure) today...I doubt that will change the final outcome...

Microtrendlines updated @ 10:00 P.M. CST, 3/18/10

$NDX Microtrendlines for 3/15/10...

Top is probably in... (3/12/10)

I do comparisons of node strike dates on waves as they are forming, and using the data from the November and March lows, you can run exponential nodes from different wave series and see what dates are in common.

Two different wave counts for the rally in the $NDX gives you these dates (click to enlarge):


For the comparison between The $RUT and $INDU you get this:



Without showing you all of these (it's a bit tedious) , 3/12/10 showed up on most of them. This includes comparisons of the $SPX against the $INDU (Dow) and against the $TRAN (transportation index) , $NDX, and the $RUT....

This made a lot of sense given the double node warning on 3/11/10, taken from a much larger time scale, on the $NDX.

Did I do this analysis for the January high? No. The Christmas to NewYears's period has so much emotion associated with it, that it probably wouldn't have worked for a 'fine tuning' of date targets, which is what these spreadsheets represent...

Other large negative divergences in the $SPX...

The $NDX also shows these...

U.S. Heading for Hyperinflationary Collapse, Ruling Elite Preparing for Civil War

By James Quinn at http://www.theburningplatform.com/
The need for the tough spirit of the cowboy in the face of the weasels in government..Quinn has a winner in this article...

Article is here:

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article16560.html

Great integration of economics, history, and an analysis of popular culture... Must read....

The silver/gold ratio and it's relationship to the equities markets...

You can just smell a whiff of deflation coming....

Weekly put_call ratios, 2 and 4 week moving averages

Market is looking toppy, yes?

The top chart uses simple moving averages, the bottom chart uses exponential moving averages

IWM - Proxy ETF for the Russell 2000...

Notice in this chart, that the price action has exceeded the weekly Bollinger Bands...This is not that common of an event on the upside, usually happens on bottoms...The daily RSI is a real serious 76.57, which is an extremely overbought reading, and with our double node warning just yesterday...well, if this isn't a rapid reversal target, I don't know what is...

$SPX just about reaches normal Fibonacci target...

No need to post a chart for this, but if the rise off of the February 5th low is a normal zig-zag where the price span of 'C' equals the price span of 'A', the calculation looks like this:

1086.02 + (1112.42 - 1044.50) equals=> 1153.94

The high today in the $SPX was 1153.41...

SULTANS OF SWAP: Smoking Guns & the Sting!- Gordon T Long

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article17839.html


Must read, a bit long, but does justice to the subject matter...
How it all works, based on the movie 'The Sting'.

Some lesser nodes on the DJIA also align about now...

Jim Willie - Distress Signals On Financial Crisis Watch

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article17803.html

Entropy - Why the World as We Know It Is Dying

http://www.safehaven.com/article-16044.htm

Micro trendlines as of Noon, Central Time on 03/09/2010...

As we get closer in time to the $NDX double node around the 11th of March, we are also starting to tangle with the old trendlines...

Voluntary research...

This is a reminder to all that may have an interest in meeting up with some of the other folks who visit this blog, to research stock market techniques loosely based on some of what I present here, that we're holding the door open a little longer...I have one commitment and one tentative, I would like to see one more solid volunteer, before I would start this thing..
It's meant to be low committment, as I know you all have lives..so it won't hurt you, honest :}

Send me an email at mlytle0@sbcglobal.net if your interested...

Larry Edelson - Another Peek Into The Future

http://www.howestreet.com/articles/index.php?article_id=12713

Agrees nicely with my work...claims top is close based on cycles...

Russell 2000 has close, but not overlapping, major nodes...

The double $NDX node falls on the 11th of March, the two nodes shown on this chart are 3/9/09 for the red 1.00 node line, and 3/23/10 for the blue 1.00 node line. Obviously the $NDX double node fits between the red and blue lines on this chart....A lot of reinforcement for a relatively small time span...

An interesting and creative sentiment indicator....

http://www.safehaven.com/article-16010.htm

I found this link worth reading...

Supporting sentiment info for previous post.

Notice that in the lower chart, that the Williams Oscillator smooths the Put/Call ratio stuff enough to be somewhat indicative of what's going on...but a lot of misses...
That said, I think we're making a double top on a lot of indexes...

Next double node due on March 11, 2010

Probably will end the rally once and for all...Creates a double top formation...

The last one took two and a half weeks to take effect, this could do the same, but I would think by the end of this month, this market should be declining...

Some sentiment info:

Stuck in the same old trendlines..

The Axis of Greed, The Nature and Structure of the Economic Elite

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article17569.html

Interesting organizational charts....

Bloom energy

Most of you by now have probably heard of the Bloom energy server. This is truly a breakthrough.

Here is a link that gives a little background on it:

http://blog.mapawatt.com/2010/02/24/what-is-a-bloom-energy-server-how-does-it-work/

This is an absolute game changer....Electrical utilities will mostly hate it..

Who are the Kings? What do they do?

It's becoming widely known that there are quite a few billionaires in the western world, but their activities and connections are not understood. In the light of the dawning awareness that the actions of this exclusive club is not necessarily benign to the rest of us, a group of people have formed a kind of social networking site to illuminate the illuminati. (I don't really like that term, but I couldn't resist the pun.) Anyway, thanks to a tip I found on Max Keiser's site, here is a new group of detectives out to expose the financial elites.

Their site is here:

http://littlesis.org/

You can, if you have the time, join and participate. It's an act that can change the world. (maybe)

Crashing Towards a New World Social Order 2012

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article17568.html

There are times when I'm glad I'm not 20 years old....

A look at two ETF's...

Of course, everyone out there is expecting a new Bull market...Note the red arrows, denoting Negative divergence between price action and the Chaiken Money Flow indicator.

The Bradley 2010 model..

Bradley, like many other stock market approaches, only works sometimes. Nonetheless, it is interesting that it posits some kind of inflection point, right now. Note that the previous post infers that insiders are looking for safety....

Add to this one of Mike Shedlocks columns:

Short Selling Restrictions "A Great Indicator of Imminent Market Crashes"

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/02/short-selling-restrictions-great.html

When you put it all together, it looks reasonable that insiders are worried...

Something Very Strange Is Happening With Treasuries

http://seekingalpha.com/article/190362-something-very-strange-is-happening-with-treasuries

The end of the article says this:

Keep your eye on US Treasuries. Stocks, despite being so popular with investors are usually the LAST to get what’s coming down the pike. And investors just parked $30 billion for a month with Uncle Sam at virtually NO YIELD yesterday.

Put another way, someone(s) is/are willing to not make money just for the sake of insuring return OF capital (the US can always print money to return it) rather than any return ON capital.

Zerohedge - An Extraordinary Coup?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/extraordinary-coup

This theme is showing up in more and more places.

So far, the markets are behaving as though January was an important top...

As you can see in this case with the $NDX, normal exponential trendlines generated from the March '09 bottom to the presumed January '10 top are being respected...People making a bullish case can do so, but only if the magenta trendlines on both of these graphs are exceeded by quite a bit more than what you see here....

$SPX scan from Clickcharts...

Despite today's somewhat ambiguous candlestick, the behaviour of the positive and negative volume indicators on this chart suggest more downside I would think...

Mike Shedlock - Commercial Real Estate Apocalypse in 2011-2012

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/02/commercial-real-estate-apocalypse-in.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis+%28Mish%27s+Global+Economic+Trend+Analysis%29

The Burning Platform

http://www.howestreet.com/articles/index.php?article_id=12583

Interesting blend of economics and popular culture...

Retry the link on the previous post, I've fixed it...

Don't know what happened there....

My discussion on the Bull-Bear site about the U.K. and U.S. markets compared...

http://www.thebullbear.com/profiles/blogs/what-is-this-symmetrical

Pretty interesting charts, if I do say so myself....

It looks to me like it's possible something major from a 'default' point of view might actually happen to Britain before mid-summer...I welcome comments...

Market rolls over a little bit late, but rolls nonetheless...

This roll was late, at .26517, fully 6% late...

Everything You Need To Know About Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swaps In 90 Seconds

http://www.businessinsider.com/explore-the-world-of-sovereign-debt-through-cds-spreads-2010-2#heres-the-worst-ten-cases-of-sovereign-debt-note-how-ukraines-cds-currently-takes-the-cake-at-nearly-1400-bps-1

A very good information source, on what has become an important indicator of near term economic health for any nation...

What happens to a country's stock market when they go into default?

Here is a proxy for the Greek stock market compared to the $SPX. They track well until mid-October...

My comments on the Bull-Bear blog...

http://www.thebullbear.com/profiles/blogs/a-possible-reevaluation-here

Watching the market here..

It does appear that the market topped yesterday, but I am waiting for another down day on Monday before I go short...

I have been monitoring the sad busines with this fellow that used a plane against the IRS. I read his note...poignant...

I expect as the global crisis deepens, there will be more events like this...we're in for several rough years...

Max Keiser report

http://maxkeiser.com/2010/02/18/kr18-keiser-report-markets-finance-scandal-18-february-2010/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Maxkeisercom+%28maxkeiser.com%29

Good stuff....

Small rally maybe near it's end...

Using the important swing data points from the March '09 rally bottom to the presumed Jan '10 top, We see a narrowing of the range of the high and low data at the .125 (1/8) node and the .250 (1/4) node for the Russell 2000 and $NDX respectively. This means we could be at or near the top of the smaller scale rally that started with the bottom on February 5th. On the $NDX, the candlestick we see is a 'hanging man' often seen at tops. We need a day or two for confirmation on this.....

P.S. Short term sentiment is also getting somewhat extreme...

More embarrassments for the U.N. and 'settled' science.

From the Wall Street Journal:

The Continuing Climate Meltdown

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703630404575053781465774008.html

A rundown of the 'Blowup' of the U.N. Climate position.

Report: Goldman Sachs Had Connection To Greece Crisis by Dr. Joe Duarte

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/DUARTE.html

Now it's becoming clear to all, that Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, and others are manipulating whole countries (not just companies) into bankruptcy. They set up their clients, set up short positions against them, and then push these entities over..and profit as they collapse in a controlled demolition....

After collapse, they can buy up these assets for pennies on the dollar...

They are positioning themselves to own the whole world....

Thoughts that are not our own.....

I have been thinking for some time now, about the human race's collective inability to step out of the pointless destructive cycles of History. We always repeat the mistakes of our ancestors over and over. Particularly now when there is so much corruption in high places, people seem determined to replace one set of liars with another. The inability to discern truthfulness is widespread.

Equally bad, I think, is the tendency of the common people to want to believe that the elites are good, or noble, or that they care about the ordinary folk. Try this experiment:

Come up to someone you know, and say "We have tracked your ancestors out to five generations, and we have discovered something of note about your great-great-grandfather. Before we tell you what we found, would you prefer that he would have been a commoner, a horse thief, or a King. Please place in order, what you're preferences are, as to what he should have been."

Unerringly, you will find people would prefer that an ancestor be a King first, then a commoner, and lastly, a horse thief.

In reality, they should have put them in the order of commoner, horse thief, then King. Why?

Because Kings murder people routinely to get power and also to stay in power, so they are in general, more unsavory then horse thieves. That's the rational answer. Humans are programmed to believe that Kings are mostly honorable, when usually they are not. This is the glue that binds peoples together into societies, the faith in the sovereign. This observable fact puts these kinds of thoughts into the category of thoughts that are not our own, because the species (not the individual) requires it for social order. Without this (species wide) programming, we would have continual anarchy....

U.S. Treasury Bond Debt Auctions on a Trend to Failure?

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article17240.html

By Fresbee, goto the link above for full article (worth reading)





I like this quote:

The situation does seem to indicate the first signs of stress and desperation at the FED and if the panic spreads, it could be Lehman all over again except this time it will be 100 times more powerful and catastrophic. It is a blessing in disguise that the common man and media does not understand bond market mechanics to great detail else the last auction could have been recipe for some hard questions from the government. The fact that stocks RALLIED on this news tells you how disconnected stocks are from reality. The Debt Spiral has started and the next few auctions will tell us whether it is accelerating.

As Neil Ferguson quotes in his book “The Ascent of Money”, bond market holds the key to world economics. Rest of the markets are all secondary and derived. It is getting eerily lonely and close to annihilation for the FED. How long it can stretch before its ultimate death is anyone’s guess but the fact they have been able to manage this long is a commendation to their genius manipulation.

Move Over China: Beijing Sells Whopping $34.2 Billion Treasuries In December As Japan Becomes Largest Official Holder Of US Debt

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/move-over-china-beijing-sells-whopping-342-billion-treasuries-december-japan-becomes-largest

Uh-Oh!

This will take us on on the path that Greece is now on....

French Bank: Euro Collapse 'Inevitable'

http://moneynews.com/Headline/greece-euro-collapse-dollar/2010/02/15/id/349903?s=al&promo_code=9752-1

Short sales on the Euro are soaring, I've heard....

Greece Debt Crisis a Precursor to New Era of Sovereign Risk

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article17232.html

This article lays out the options before the people of Greece. There are four, as John Maudlin puts it, one being to leave the European Union. In the not too distant future, Americans will have similar choices to make, with one less option, in that we don't belong to a larger consortium. Otherwise, we are in the same boat, so this article is worth reading to understand where we are and where we're going...

Family values

http://www.energybulletin.net/51538

This was written as a post peak oil piece, but it has some insights to offer generally in world where resources can't be assured any longer by a fading empire...

Forget Greece, the US Almost Had a Failed Treasury Auction

http://www.gainspainscapital.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=226:forget-greece-the-us-almost-had-a-failed-treasury-auction

Be mindful that this article does try to sell you something, and is meant to sound sensational to do so.. That said, I think the article is correctly pointing out that debt default for the U.S. may only be months away...

And now this article has rolled across my screen in a timely fashion, saying pretty much the same thing:

Coming To America: The Greek Sovereign Debt Crisis

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/coming-america-greek-sovereign-debt-crisis

A quote: 'To be sure, Keynesianism is starting to unravel.' Yes, everywhere...

How a New Jobless Era Will Transform America

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/201003/jobless-america-future

Yes, people do get less materialistic, but also they apparently become more.... broken.

$SPX and $NDX trendlines...

Still hanging around that old support...

PRESIDENT OBAMA ESTABLISHES "COUNCIL OF GOVERNORS"

http://www.newswithviews.com/baldwin/baldwin562.htm

Market was up today, as anticipated..

I'm tracking the price action, waiting for confirmation of the validity of new trendlines caused by the completed pattern from March '09 to Jan '10. Once these are confirmed, they will be added to the old trendline charts for additional predictive capacity. We need to see where this little rally ends to verify the new trendlines....

How to invest for a global-debt-bomb explosion

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-to-invest-for-the-debt-bomb-explosion-2010-02-09

Prepare for an apocalyptic anarchy ending Wall Street's toxic capitalism - MarketWatch

by Paul B. Farrell

CHART OF THE DAY: Is Austria The Next Euro Nation To Get Vaporized?

Joe Weisenthal and Kamelia Angelova | Feb. 9, 2010, 3:00 PM | 244 | 1

Print

Tags: Chart Of The Day

Right now everyone is focusing on the PIIGS, with special emphasis on the "G" Greece.

If the ECB handles the situation right, then hopefully this goes nowhere. But if it goes bad, then we're talking about contagion.

So who might fall if periphery Europe goes down?

Check out Austria. As you can see, its CDS spread is just starting to turn higher, and it's well known that the country has major banks with dicey Eastern Europe exposure.

But for now, let's hope the PIIGS firewall remains in place.

The Ever Increasing Parallels Between AIG And Greece... And The CDS Puppetmaster Behind It All.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ever-increasing-parallels-between-aig-and-greece-and-cds-puppetmaster-behind-it-all

Guess who?

Enough here to feed a lot of conspiracy theories...

More Empires Have Fallen Because Of Reckless Finances Than Invasion

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/02/guest-post-more-empires-have-fallen-because-of-reckless-finances-than-invasion.html

Europe Risks Another Global Depression

http://baselinescenario.com/2010/02/07/europe-risks-another-global-depression/

Europe enters major crisis..will drag us into it eventually, of course...

I hope everybody checks out the previous post, particularly the videos with Catherine Fitts. Insights there that are not present on the Zerohedge site...they are different. Fifteen minutes of your time...

SEC has changed the rules, to limit withdrawals from Money Markets during the next Market Crisis.

This set of two videos (about 15 minutes long in total) is an interview with Catherine Austin Fitts, a former Republican official in the George Bush (Sr.) administration, and a former intern at Goldman Sachs. She is trying to sound the alarm about what the Banking and Finance groups in the economy are doing in a general way, and what it means for the average citizen.

Importantly, she is putting up a big red flag about the safety of 401K's, particularly relative to Money Market funds. The Government is about to violate the property rights of investors through a new rule, setting an ominous precedent. The commentator, Max Keiser, does a good job overall of interviewing her, his style is a little bit shrill sometimes, but that's his nature, you have to try to overlook it...Nonetheless, very worthwhile to listen to...Max and Stacy do have a great website/blog, you should all visit it often, great insights and guests there....

The links are here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GUSk57QDB4U

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zBZSkgGIlm4

More on this new rule can be found here, at the website, Zerohedge:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/suspending-money-market-redemptions-now-legel-sec-approves-new-money-market-regulation-4-1-v

Other countries in the past have been known to come up with confiscation schemes against their citizens to shore up national balance sheets that were destroyed by corruption or incompetence, Argentina is one example, there are others...

Beware...

Another little bounce...

There could be another bounce here, as the support trendlines have been 'just barely' exceeded, with Stochastics turning up...

Fears of 'Lehman-style' tsunami as crisis hits Spain and Portugal

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/7159456/Fears-of-Lehman-style-tsunami-as-crisis-hits-Spain-and-Portugal.html

Lies We're Being Told: Interest is Consumption, Saving is "a Negative Act"

http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=15688&pv=1

20 reasons Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/our-debt-time-bomb-is-ready-to-go-ka-boom-2010-02-02?dist=beforebell

Volcker Does Not Get It

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/01/volcker-does-not-get-it.html

More disappointing reality....

Top 25 Censored Stories for 2010

http://www.projectcensored.org/top-stories/category/two-thousand-and-ten-book/

This site is really worth checking out...

Why this is probably the end of the rally...

Notice here the huge divergence between price and the price/volume weighted CMF indicator as seen in the ETF that tracks the risky small cap Russell 2000 (lower chart, IWM). The July correction in price was equally deep to what we have seen now, but it had buying volume on it's side, unlike the present situation...

Battle of the Titans: JPMorgan vs Goldman Sachs

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ellen-brown/jpmorgan-vs-goldman-sachs_b_441922.html

I Am Become Debt, Destroyer Of Worlds

http://www.safehaven.com/article-15625.htm

Interesting....

Funds flee Greece as Germany warns of "fatal" eurozone crisis

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/7095818/Funds-flee-Greece-as-Germany-warns-of-fatal-eurozone-crisis.html

After Greece goes the way of Iceland (soon) then maybe Spain goes down too? Then who's next? The last domino to fall will be the U.S.

The World Economic System is dying, and like a drowning man, where the heart and lungs shunts the available blood back and forth between the brain and the heart to keep the 'core' alive, the world system is doing the same. The 'blood' is 'liquidity'. The brain and heart of the world system are probably, London and Wall Street, so they may survive for a while, at the expense of the 'extremities' (small countries) of the global system...

The Greatest Threat to America

http://english.pravda.ru/opinion/columnists/111884-0/

From Pravda, no less....found this link on Urbansurvival.com....