O.K. Some kind of top was verified today with the decline...

Remember that the 17th and 18th were Fibonacci nodes..it looks like there's a chance that worked...A few more days should tell us what's what...

As usual the $NDX Microtrendlines were followed quite faithfully....

Goldman Sachs Nearly Bankrupted AIG

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/janet-tavakoli/goldman-sachs-nearly-bank_b_361342.html

Should anyone be surprised?

$Russell 2000 analysis

Note that the recent top exists at one of the lesser but occasionally important .75 nodes (bottom chart). This would have less meaning if the $SPX wasn't at a major .500 node. Together they reinforce the idea that a top here is probable. Time will tell....

How The Great Recession Will Transform America

http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2009/11/how-the-great-recession-will-transform-america.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+PlanetYelnick+%28Planet+Yelnick%29

$NDX 'Macro' and 'Micro' trendlines...

Notice the interesting difference here between the $NDX and the $SPX. In the bottom graph here, which I'm calling the $NDX 'Micro' trendlines, this is where the price action is contained. The two top graphs look as though the 'Macro' trendlines have been exceeded and are therefore no longer working. This is the reverse situation from the $SPX in the earlier post below....

$SPX 'Macro' and 'Micro' trendlines...

Not a lot of change from 4 days ago, really....

In this case, the Micro trendlines (bottom chart) are at or beyond their limits, it is the bigger and older sourced 'macro' trendlines (top two charts) that are probably containing this...

The market is declining a bit...is this the real deal? Is the Bear back?

After today's action I will redo the charts, see what it looks like...Remember, we are looking for 5 wave declines, rather than '3's....Probably by next week we might have some idea...

Rock Music Quality vs. US Oil Production

One to look at and go WOW!

Report: 10 states face looming budget disasters

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091111/ap_on_re_us/us_state_budgets

Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure, says whistleblower

http://peakenergy.blogspot.com/2009/11/key-oil-figures-were-distorted-by-us.html

This, of course, is the crisis that is coming right as the general economic crisis becomes most severe.... I personally, am concerned about general survival during this overlap...

Japan's situation worse than the U.S.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/11/budget-deficits-soar-out-of-control-in.html

Our problems look really terrible until you see what other people have to deal with...This is a great comparison of all of the major industrialized countries. Rather surprising....

Exponential Trendlines and Nodes, seeds from 10/2002 through 10/2007 - $SPX

Haven't shown these for a while, these exponential trendlines are of a larger order and presumably more resilient then the micro trendlines I've been showing lately. These confirm the topping action suggested by other methods/ indicators. Note the .500 time node we happen to be at in the bottom chart... That's one of the important warnings in this system of trend change...

Russell 2000 non-confirmation with DOW

The non-confirmation by the current top of the Russell 2000 compared to the Blue-Chip Dow industrials, shows that risk appetites are collapsing...

I've had computer problems..back now...

Hello I'm back...Yesterday's rally was a bit of an eye opener...My computer has been giving me fits for about a day, I have reloaded it and am operational again...The power of this last day's rally was surprising, volume was respectable, as was the point gain. I would assume short covering had much to do with it. No fatal damage has been done to the Bear case, but obviously, another couple of days like this one could change things significantly. The dollar is still involved with this, and today it hit support (again) at just below 75.0 or so. That support has to hold if the Stock market is to decline...

A detailed discussion by me and others over at the BullBear site

http://www.thebullbear.com/profiles/blog/show?id=3301355%3ABlogPost%3A3980&page=1#comment-3301355_Comment_3998

If we are forming the right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern on both indexes, here are the trendlines to watch....

On the $SPX the highlighted green trendline will be at 1074.72 and for the $NDX the highlighted orange trendline will be at 1727.02. Both trendlines will normally be exceeded slightly before they will stop the advance. If they are exceeded by too much, then obviously something different is happening, and the markets have apparently not really topped...

Looks like a nice wave 2 has happened, with a 50% retrace...

Now we wait over the next couple of days to see if wave 3 is really under way. (Technically, wave 3 of the bigger wave 3) Those of you who follow Elliott Wave will know what I mean, if not, go over to Daneric's site, he's a deep Elliott guy...

Is the U.S. Dollar About To Crush Stocks?

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article14709.html

Crudely labeled chart, but I think it will confirm Yelnick's, and other similar wave counts...

I think I see a pretty clear 5 wave structure here...so this should confirm a more Bearish result, and the start of a major Wave 3 down in the markets...

Yelnick's scenerio...

http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2009/10/last-chance-to-get-out-comes-again.html