Thursday, March 13, 2008

Trend change days (top and bottom picking) part 3









The final method I use is also a Fibonacci method, mentioned by a variety of authors.

Basically you count Fibonacci days backwards from a "target" date and see if it confirms that date by producing alignments of tops and bottoms working towards the past from a presumed future turn date. For those unfamiliar with Fibonacci sequences, you are looking for turns on 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, and possibly 144 trading days from a presumed target.

Note that all three charts line up best with a 3/21 or 3/24 target date. Is that it?

Possibly, but remember the Federal Reserve meets on the 18th and they are desperate to lift this failing market. The Fed is one force that can throw this count off, although there are others. Always use money management techniques as your first tool, and technical analysis as your second and lesser technique. The market can undo the best analysis you can do. That said, there is pretty good convergence on these three techniques...

By the way, another caveat is that having three "close" date target ranges does suggest this could be a "multiple" bottom, slowly grinding sideways from the 3/19 to 3/28 date, so a true and unmistakeable "bottom day" during this time period may be elusive, so be careful!

1 comment:

john said...

Mark,

thanx, I am very careful.

old john