The fellow who does the Youtube videos called 'Realist News' just asked an interesting question. He asked if the 80:1 ratio of the price of gold to that of silver, is about to change.

One can never be sure of these things, but there IS a wedge forming in the chart pattern of that ratio. It looks like this:

Best I can say, is that wedges sometimes fail as they get about 2/3's along. This type of wedge often fails 'up' rather than down, but I think that's unlikely here. It might fail by the end of the year. That would also be a sign of a weakening financial system, which we all know is going to happen anyway.

Forecast to 2021

Click on any chart to enlarge it.

Some of the _many_ other supporting studies:

Also, help from my good friend, Fibonacci. Don't expect it to be perfect, just roughly close. It will get refined more as we move forward. People talking about a stock 'Armageddon' are a bit over the top. This is a serious decline, and the worst seems to be from the top in 2019 down into 2021. That _will_ be scary. From early April of this year into the end of September won't be much fun either, I come up with 1693 or so as the bottom in the fall... But overall, not by any means, an end of the world scenario...

As the markets rally into early April, underlying conditions in the Banking and Manufacturing sectors continue to weaken. Western Governments most vulnerable to a banking implosion are seeing their probabilities of default starting to rise. Great Britain is the worst case in percentage gain, but not in absolute terms.

Crude Oil in for a significant reversal? Maybe, the charts are forecasting a BIG Middle Eastern War centered on Syria. That could push up prices.

I don't like predictions like this, but in the face of the massive oversupply of crude, I can't think of any other FUNDAMENTAL reason for a major reversal in Crude Oil prices.

First chart, a trendline contact, the second chart, the 1.000 node reached. That's a clear formula for a reversal. This chart has some temporal authority, as it's sourced all the way back to 12/28/1998.

Sticking my head out. Possible $SPX price/time prediction. This looks straightforward, but I didn't arrive at the price target in this way. This is just a display.

When's the best time to short Panera Bread? Possibly April 4th or so.

The date/price sequence of 10/19/98 and 2.06 (low), 9/15/03 and 47.79 (high), 04/03/06 and 75.88 (high), produced the following spike high of $208.00 on July 27, 2015:

A different date/price sequence of 10/19/98 and 2.06 (start low), 09/15/03 and 47.79 (wave 1,high), 06/03/13 and 194.77 (wave 3,high), produces the following graph, with exponentially derived trendlines. A widening envelope (Megaphone pattern) terminates at the April 4th, 2016 date with a high and lows on that date of approximately $212.00 and $168.00, respectively. The standard Elliot Wave, Fibonacci Calculation gives a top at $216.23.

This next picture shows the area in the box that contains the widening envelope, it looks almost the same on the conventional plot, but you often get more accurate results off the exponential plot.

Rally here, hitting .250 node on the 1.272 chart, and hitting and bouncing off an exponential trendline. That's a combination that produces market turns. This is a Bear Market, so don't get too excited.

Something happening in Great Britain? CDS is going straight up?

Bitcoin may have established a channel, if it maintains it, it will be back at it's old high by the fall of 2016.

Where we are, and where we're going. Expect a 60% correction over the next 5 years.

Notice the HUGE A-B-C Pattern, where A=C.

For now a linear trendline of the $SPX will work almost as well as the exponentially derived one in terms of fitting the data. But later they will diverge as markets don't follow straight lines as much as you're led to believe..

Probably won't post too much from now 'till right after the New Year, though I am working on a new Fibonacci program, and will be testing it over the holidays.

At this point, you don't need to be a market technician to see the top is in...

Serious $SPX divergence. You can bet today's action will not be enough to alleviate this.

What a Elliott Wave Zig Zag looks like on a 'normal' chart versus an exponential spreadsheet plot.

One, you know you have a support trendline, and one you don't...(click on images to enlarge)

This is a chart of Libor rates (interbank lending rates) superimposed on the S&P 500 chart. Something in the background is blowing up, big time. Liquidity is disappearing..

Did you feel the earth move? It recently has. The dollar is starting to crash, behind the scenes junk bonds are blowing up, Bitcoin is on fire and even moribund precious metals are starting to shine. We have just passed a major INFLECTION POINT.

There is an ETF of the Eurostoxx 50 index, that is making an interesting, albeit sloppy exponential channel right now.

This isn't apparent on 'normal' charts. It's approaching a 1.0 node and overhead resistance. We'll see what happens, it either rolls over here, or goes on to a new high in late January.

Found some tabular data for the Baltic Dry Index. Looks like these maths will work for this too, but I didn't get enough data to draw a lot of conclusions. Interesting though...

The Dollar dumped yesterday, as the charts said they would...

Compare this chart to the one posted on November 30th, you can see the decline has started.