Monday, February 25, 2008

Interesting Juncture



$TRIN is getting low, not only instantaneous readings but 8 period averages, however the $NDX trendline chart could be interpreted as an exponential trendline failure, as the price action has passed fairly far through the trendline without reversing. The $SPX chart shows it's price action just at it's exponential trendline, and still subject to reversal, by that method. The fact that the $NDX rose less then the $INDU and $SPX should be treated a little skeptically, as most advances are led by the $NDX. That said, there are really mixed signals occuring right now. March 3, is still a date of some importance as Fibonacci time lines, Exponential time nodes and cycles all bottom on that date, however the $SPX looks like it may have broken out of it's symmetrical triangle formation to the upside on ordinary charts and has positive divergence on daily charts.
Although I have been expecting another drop to materialize (and it will eventually), short term, we may be seeing a bounce here, because of the oversold conditions and the cycle bottoms due in a few days. What makes this unusual is that triangles are usually considered continuation patterns, which in this case obviously would mean more declines.
So obviously be careful here, as signals are extremely mixed...I can't say for certain what it will do short term...One last thing of note which may be significant, volume was less on the two day rally in the last half of today then on it's start Friday and earlier today..as $TRIN declines, that could be significant...

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