Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Little change in $NDX so far...and other matters to discuss...



So far about the Stock Market, little to write about, still in a weak rally...

Probably of greater importance is the negative interest rates appearing on Government Bonds. It's slightly ominous when most investors are thinking the same way. Now that the hordes are all flooding into the presumed safety of treasuries sufficient to produce a negative interest rate, and knowing the market by it's nature fools most of the people most of the time, it feels like a trap is being set...
I still think a dollar devaluation is likely at some point, and that might be the trap, or maybe not, as that's probably a bit down the road. It may be something unanticipated..in any event we are in really unusual waters now...

Thinking about this a little longer, a rise in interest rates on those bonds could be devastating as existing bond face values decline as interest rates go higher. So circumstances that would force interest rates higher, especially fairly quickly, could be the mechanism, if not the rational or the trigger, for a bunch of people to lose more money, which is what markets like to do...As a trap, it has to be fast to provide no exit for a lot of people. Or if it were to happen more slowly, it could work against people because other options, other than bonds, could actually be worse. That would be another kind of trap. I will leave it to your imagination to think of scenarios that would provide these outcomes.

1 comment:

D said...

My scenario calls for a crash in bond prices and scooping them up with a 25%+ ytm. I think they will be the last debts standing assuming it doesn't deteriorate to the degree that property rights are not enforced. I have never believed in "monetary" inflation as it creams the people who are screwing us. These packages are nothing more than a slow down the knife and slowly boil the frog measure. Hyperinflation ends with the same disaster as deflation, but deflation can preserve the wealth of those appropriately positioned for it. Why do you think they talk up inflation fears all the time? Someone has to buy the junk we sell only to buy back in the future for pennies on the dollar!