Monday, December 8, 2008

$NDX is finally past some trendlines and moving up..





Here are this morning's charts. They may change by the end of the day....

Watch the dark green ascending trendline in the top graph and the dark blue ascending trendline in the bottom graph. One of those will likely stop the rally at some point. There is also a crossover not far away in time in the first chart, which has a chance of reversing it also, but I think it is too close in time to allow the rally to reach even a minimum retracement. So I would guess it won't be a factor.

The bottom chart doesn't show much trendline compliance, but shows the bottom forming at the .250 timing exponent or node as shown on the "X" axis, which is quite common. This one was, however a bit sloppy, with the absolute bottom shown at .273 rather than the ideal .250...

Compare that with the uppermost chart where the price action hit the downsloping magenta line precisely at .250 (acturally .25013) and formed a perfect bear market signal. The market collapsed from that point (on 8/15/08) as you can see. Note: trendline bounces and node hits don't have to be on the same chart, of the three I generate (as above), to produce a valid signal.

Note that I have added the Elliot count to the top chart...
Click on the charts to enlarge them...

5 comments:

D said...

How far out is that .250 on the top chart?

spasiba

mlytle said...

Hi D,

That point in time, on the top chart and from which the collapse accelerated, and has the magenta wave 2 label, took place on
8/15/08..

Regards,
Mark L.

D said...

Thanks! What about the cross-over? Is Santa Claus just bringing coal this year?

mlytle said...

Hi D,

The crossover happens on 12/29/08...It could stop the rally..

If the rally continues to that date, watch for negative divergence on indicators getting "ripe" in that time frame...That should tell you...

Regards,
Mark Lytle

D said...

thanks mark!