Saturday, January 9, 2010

Funding and the patriotism test

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0306069c-fbb4-11de-9c29-00144feab49a.html?nclick_check=1

Bankers are worried that they might have to factor 'revolt of the people' into their estimates of a country's debt repayment success....

A related article suggests that many large banks are now worried about sovereign debt risk, and what would be the outcome if a major western country went into default. These banks rarely carry debt default insurance (which is nothing more then some of those loathsome, credit default swaps) on the government bonds of major countries since these carry a 'triple A' credit rating. But if such an event were to occur, it's not clear that they could buy or carry enough insurance to cover it, anyway. Thus it suggests huge losses for the players involved.

I personally would suspect that they are really worried about a cascading meltdown of the whole derivatives market, which would bring down the whole global economic system. The article doesn't explicitly say this, but I can read between the lines here...


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