French Bank: Euro Collapse 'Inevitable'

http://moneynews.com/Headline/greece-euro-collapse-dollar/2010/02/15/id/349903?s=al&promo_code=9752-1

Short sales on the Euro are soaring, I've heard....

Greece Debt Crisis a Precursor to New Era of Sovereign Risk

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article17232.html

This article lays out the options before the people of Greece. There are four, as John Maudlin puts it, one being to leave the European Union. In the not too distant future, Americans will have similar choices to make, with one less option, in that we don't belong to a larger consortium. Otherwise, we are in the same boat, so this article is worth reading to understand where we are and where we're going...

Family values

http://www.energybulletin.net/51538

This was written as a post peak oil piece, but it has some insights to offer generally in world where resources can't be assured any longer by a fading empire...

Forget Greece, the US Almost Had a Failed Treasury Auction

http://www.gainspainscapital.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=226:forget-greece-the-us-almost-had-a-failed-treasury-auction

Be mindful that this article does try to sell you something, and is meant to sound sensational to do so.. That said, I think the article is correctly pointing out that debt default for the U.S. may only be months away...

And now this article has rolled across my screen in a timely fashion, saying pretty much the same thing:

Coming To America: The Greek Sovereign Debt Crisis

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/coming-america-greek-sovereign-debt-crisis

A quote: 'To be sure, Keynesianism is starting to unravel.' Yes, everywhere...

How a New Jobless Era Will Transform America

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/201003/jobless-america-future

Yes, people do get less materialistic, but also they apparently become more.... broken.

$SPX and $NDX trendlines...

Still hanging around that old support...

PRESIDENT OBAMA ESTABLISHES "COUNCIL OF GOVERNORS"

http://www.newswithviews.com/baldwin/baldwin562.htm

Market was up today, as anticipated..

I'm tracking the price action, waiting for confirmation of the validity of new trendlines caused by the completed pattern from March '09 to Jan '10. Once these are confirmed, they will be added to the old trendline charts for additional predictive capacity. We need to see where this little rally ends to verify the new trendlines....

How to invest for a global-debt-bomb explosion

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-to-invest-for-the-debt-bomb-explosion-2010-02-09

Prepare for an apocalyptic anarchy ending Wall Street's toxic capitalism - MarketWatch

by Paul B. Farrell

CHART OF THE DAY: Is Austria The Next Euro Nation To Get Vaporized?

Joe Weisenthal and Kamelia Angelova | Feb. 9, 2010, 3:00 PM | 244 | 1

Print

Tags: Chart Of The Day

Right now everyone is focusing on the PIIGS, with special emphasis on the "G" Greece.

If the ECB handles the situation right, then hopefully this goes nowhere. But if it goes bad, then we're talking about contagion.

So who might fall if periphery Europe goes down?

Check out Austria. As you can see, its CDS spread is just starting to turn higher, and it's well known that the country has major banks with dicey Eastern Europe exposure.

But for now, let's hope the PIIGS firewall remains in place.

The Ever Increasing Parallels Between AIG And Greece... And The CDS Puppetmaster Behind It All.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ever-increasing-parallels-between-aig-and-greece-and-cds-puppetmaster-behind-it-all

Guess who?

Enough here to feed a lot of conspiracy theories...

More Empires Have Fallen Because Of Reckless Finances Than Invasion

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/02/guest-post-more-empires-have-fallen-because-of-reckless-finances-than-invasion.html

Europe Risks Another Global Depression

http://baselinescenario.com/2010/02/07/europe-risks-another-global-depression/

Europe enters major crisis..will drag us into it eventually, of course...

I hope everybody checks out the previous post, particularly the videos with Catherine Fitts. Insights there that are not present on the Zerohedge site...they are different. Fifteen minutes of your time...

SEC has changed the rules, to limit withdrawals from Money Markets during the next Market Crisis.

This set of two videos (about 15 minutes long in total) is an interview with Catherine Austin Fitts, a former Republican official in the George Bush (Sr.) administration, and a former intern at Goldman Sachs. She is trying to sound the alarm about what the Banking and Finance groups in the economy are doing in a general way, and what it means for the average citizen.

Importantly, she is putting up a big red flag about the safety of 401K's, particularly relative to Money Market funds. The Government is about to violate the property rights of investors through a new rule, setting an ominous precedent. The commentator, Max Keiser, does a good job overall of interviewing her, his style is a little bit shrill sometimes, but that's his nature, you have to try to overlook it...Nonetheless, very worthwhile to listen to...Max and Stacy do have a great website/blog, you should all visit it often, great insights and guests there....

The links are here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GUSk57QDB4U

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zBZSkgGIlm4

More on this new rule can be found here, at the website, Zerohedge:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/suspending-money-market-redemptions-now-legel-sec-approves-new-money-market-regulation-4-1-v

Other countries in the past have been known to come up with confiscation schemes against their citizens to shore up national balance sheets that were destroyed by corruption or incompetence, Argentina is one example, there are others...

Beware...

Another little bounce...

There could be another bounce here, as the support trendlines have been 'just barely' exceeded, with Stochastics turning up...

Fears of 'Lehman-style' tsunami as crisis hits Spain and Portugal

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/7159456/Fears-of-Lehman-style-tsunami-as-crisis-hits-Spain-and-Portugal.html

Lies We're Being Told: Interest is Consumption, Saving is "a Negative Act"

http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=15688&pv=1

20 reasons Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/our-debt-time-bomb-is-ready-to-go-ka-boom-2010-02-02?dist=beforebell

Volcker Does Not Get It

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/01/volcker-does-not-get-it.html

More disappointing reality....

Top 25 Censored Stories for 2010

http://www.projectcensored.org/top-stories/category/two-thousand-and-ten-book/

This site is really worth checking out...

Why this is probably the end of the rally...

Notice here the huge divergence between price and the price/volume weighted CMF indicator as seen in the ETF that tracks the risky small cap Russell 2000 (lower chart, IWM). The July correction in price was equally deep to what we have seen now, but it had buying volume on it's side, unlike the present situation...

Battle of the Titans: JPMorgan vs Goldman Sachs

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ellen-brown/jpmorgan-vs-goldman-sachs_b_441922.html

I Am Become Debt, Destroyer Of Worlds

http://www.safehaven.com/article-15625.htm

Interesting....

Funds flee Greece as Germany warns of "fatal" eurozone crisis

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/7095818/Funds-flee-Greece-as-Germany-warns-of-fatal-eurozone-crisis.html

After Greece goes the way of Iceland (soon) then maybe Spain goes down too? Then who's next? The last domino to fall will be the U.S.

The World Economic System is dying, and like a drowning man, where the heart and lungs shunts the available blood back and forth between the brain and the heart to keep the 'core' alive, the world system is doing the same. The 'blood' is 'liquidity'. The brain and heart of the world system are probably, London and Wall Street, so they may survive for a while, at the expense of the 'extremities' (small countries) of the global system...

The Greatest Threat to America

http://english.pravda.ru/opinion/columnists/111884-0/

From Pravda, no less....found this link on Urbansurvival.com....

Getting closer to a more sustainable bounce..

Note that the $SPX is now just about at support from the trendline that rescued it back in July...the $NDX is close to, but not yet at, the equivalent place...

Consequences of the Mass. Election

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/consequences-mass-election

Interest Rate Roulette - Ron Kirby

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/kirby/2010/0125.html

You can see the double bottom...

So the bounce really got started today, after the double bottom completed. Now we will see how much power it has. My belief, is not enough to revive the rally from last March....

Someone on another site said that Obama's State of the Union address tomorrow night will be important. I suspect that's true, and even though I don't usually correlate news with market changes, further emphasis in that speech on curbing the banks may well be the catalyst that causes this little rally to top and reverse say, Thursday morning. Just a guess.

The bounce has materialized, but...

It doesn't look terribly strong. Can't say if it ends later today or lasts a couple days, but how long it lasts will say something about the strength of the downleg that's starting....

The New Political Rumbling

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703699204575017503811443526.html?mod=WSJ_hp_mostpop_read

A good piece from the Wall Street Journal.

Fed to End Overseas Dollar 'Swaps'

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704423204575017281252221758.html?mod=rss_economy

Wow! weak market!

Notice the upper chart of the $SPX. We have already breached the exponential trendline that has been the primary support for the rally from March (the trendline with the black arrow pointing to it). If we now go on to breach the deeper trendline (pointed to by the green arrow), then the Bear has probably returned. The light blue arrow shows the only correction that occurred since March that was deep enough to use this lower trendline for support.

Wedge forming...

Obviously, a bounce will happen later today or Monday. If the bounce doesn't materialize into a powerful rally, then the Bear is back. So we'll see what happens...

So, Corporations can now spend unlimited amounts to promote "their side" in campaigns...

I'm sure you've heard of the new ruling, if not, here's a link:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a_ONCajlMuTY

I can just hear the noise levels going up, more misinformation and disinformation then ever. Maybe this will get people to stop watching television, I'm sure it will get shrill as well as busy as corporations and unions on opposite sides of an issue try to outspend each other on TV ads. With deep pockets, the nonsense levels could reach new highs, and truth, more then ever, will be the casualty here.

Meanwhile the market is down again today, I'm just waiting for the 'end of day' to run my analysis....

Decline may have indeed started...

Probably by the end of this week, we will know that the Bear is indeed back. The market action of the last two days strongly suggests this.....

I will redo all of the important charts tomorrow night, and see what we have at that point...

What I am watching for is a decline of the $SPX, particularly, that takes it below the 'micro' trendline that it's been 'resting on' as it 'climbed'. None of the minor corrections in that index has penetrated that trendline since the rally started, so I will take that event as pretty solid evidence that this correction is of a different scale and much higher importance then the other ones.

Looking like a distribution pattern...

The market continues it's "up one day and down the next" pattern, but it could be a distribution top. Today's market action might well have something to do with the elections last night. I would say Brown's victory in Massachusetts has to be the start of something bigger. I distrust Republicans every bit as much as I distrust Democrats, but man by man we have to sift out the trash in each party to get reform.

Still waiting on miss market...

You can see here the negative divergence on the Nasdaq breadth indicator $NASI compared to the $NDX, shown by the dashed, thick black line, and the two recent node hits given by the vertical red dashed lines on 12/28/09 and 1/08/10, and also all of the recent places where RSI on this breadth indicator peaked. These were usually at least short term tops. Though that's true, today didn't resolve anything...

Goldman Finally Concedes: It Did Indeed Create the Credit Crunch

http://seekingalpha.com/article/182922-goldman-finally-concedes-it-did-indeed-create-the-credit-crunch?source=article_lb_articles

Doing God's work....right.

An older link, but some good graphs in it....

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/183929-sober-realist/21385-the-great-depression-ii

Dr. Edwin Vieira, Jr. on the Failure of the Public Sector, the Coming Military Crackdown and What Can Be Done to Stop It

http://www.thedailybell.com/724/Edwin-Vieira-the-Coming-Military-Crackdown.html

Another interesting timing clue...

I don't need a chart to say this, the amount of time that the $NDX has spent rallying from the March '09 lows, as of 1/08/10, was exactly .618% of the duration of the crash from Oct '07 to that March low. We are only a few trading days beyond that, so it would still qualify as a Fibonacci turn if the markets broke down here. This is in addition to the exponential nodes we have just seen hit over the last two and a half weeks. So things are not happy today in the markets, and it bears watching, as change could be coming....

Market Manipulation 101

Check out this post on Yelnick, which summarized, says that all of the gains in the stock market in this rally have been made on just 30 Mondays. No kidding.

http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2010/01/vampire-market-all-the-action-is-at-night.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+PlanetYelnick+%28Planet+Yelnick%29

And then I (along with a lot of other people) get this email today from a professional pit trader (Larry Levine), who has a free newsletter he produces, in which he talks about an event yesterday that raised eyebrows in the trading pits. Some of his comments:

What happened at 12:03pm Eastern Time? There were no reports out, the 10-YR Note auction wasn't until 12pm, and the S&P500 was a bit stonewalled just under 1137.00 after a rally from the day's low. As the market advanced slowly through the congestion it hit: a MASSIVE order, or series of orders, lifted the offer in the e-minis. But it wasn't your garden variety large order of 2,000 mini's - I'm talking about 114 times that size.

At 11:03am today at the Chicago Board of Trade (12:03pm EST) over a quarter of a million mini-S&P500 orders traded north of 1137.00! (228,000 last count)

Could this be real I wondered? Was it some sort of computer malfunction that added too many zeros to the reported, yet smaller, trades?

No, that's not what happened. In fact, a bit of a hullabaloo occurred around my trading booth on the floor of the CBOT as many locals, brokers, and compliance members stared at the aforementioned volume chart in disbelief. As it turns out, all of the trades were indeed valid. None were busted. Moreover, as one of the compliance members told me, he saw the trades listed sequentially (1,000 or 2,000 lot orders) and they all occurred with milliseconds of one another until the massive order was completed.

This order size takes a SERIOUS bankroll to get done. If you are wrong by one-point on a 228,000 lot ES order, you can say goodbye to $11,400,000.00. If you contemplate this size your margin requirement is $1,282,500,000.00, while the notional value is $12,961,800,000.00.

Has a new "playha" hit the scene? Is his nickname "Helicopter?" Has high frequency trading (HFT) taken root in the mini-S&P in a huge way?

Of course by 'Helicopter' he means Ben Bernanke and the Govt. Talk about rigged markets, it sure looks that way...

Rydex Market Timers: A Long Term View

http://www.safehaven.com/article-15479.htm

History 101: The Bulls Are Dead Wrong

http://www.businessinsider.com/panzner-bulls-are-dead-wrong-2010-1#huge-job-losses-1

Remember to flip through all of the slides presented on this link, it gives the complete story...

and when your done with that, check out this equally surprising set of charts on the decline in local and state revenues:

http://www.businessinsider.com/now-see-the-real-state-of-collapsing-state-tax-revenues-2010-1#while-local-municipal-taxes-are-holding-up-modestly-state-taxes-have-fallen-off-a-cliff-with-little-sign-of-slowing-1

Make sure you see all 8 slides...

Nothing short of amazing!

Obviously, some sort of decline has started...

Now we wait for verification...on the Bear...

Another clue...

You see the that the VXN has popped below it's Bollinger Bands. Exhaustion gap for the VXN? Could be...
The VIX looks the same way...

Another warning, from the Russell 2000

To the two nodes overlapping on the $NDX at the end of December, we now add another 1.00 exponential node on the Russell 2000. So we now have a cluster of nodes on two indexes over a fairly tight time frame relative to the long time periods that spawned them. This is again suggesting trend change is in the cards in the not to distant future.

How the Teamsters Beat Goldman Sachs

I found this link over at the Max Keiser blog (you all should visit there, great site), it looks like the teamsters have the muscle and resources to beat the Goldman boys at their own game.

http://www.counterpunch.org/andrew01082010.html

But this is line with a prediction made recently (check posts from a few days ago) that various groups would start to do battle soon over a shrinking pie. This was resolved 'politely', but that may not happen as often as the Bear market proceeds...

It's also clear from this that Goldman is the 'grim reaper', both predator and parasite, as it routinely makes bets against viable firms, brings them down, and then pockets big profits from the unwarranted destruction of these same firms. Totally treasonous, criminal.

Funding and the patriotism test

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0306069c-fbb4-11de-9c29-00144feab49a.html?nclick_check=1

Bankers are worried that they might have to factor 'revolt of the people' into their estimates of a country's debt repayment success....

A related article suggests that many large banks are now worried about sovereign debt risk, and what would be the outcome if a major western country went into default. These banks rarely carry debt default insurance (which is nothing more then some of those loathsome, credit default swaps) on the government bonds of major countries since these carry a 'triple A' credit rating. But if such an event were to occur, it's not clear that they could buy or carry enough insurance to cover it, anyway. Thus it suggests huge losses for the players involved.

I personally would suspect that they are really worried about a cascading meltdown of the whole derivatives market, which would bring down the whole global economic system. The article doesn't explicitly say this, but I can read between the lines here...

Class Warfare American Style

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/01/class-warfare.html

Watching today's $NDX weakness...

Remember that we had the mathematical event of two major nodes overlapping on the 28th of December. That did not mean the top of the market had to be on that day (although sometimes that will happen), only that an internal condition for market psychology should turn on that date. We are still very much in the shadow of that event, and a major decline could start at any time. It was slightly unnerving to see the market rally somewhat after that date, and of course, the market can do anything it wants, but on probabilities, two nodes and a slight trendline breach are pretty strong bearish warnings for the $NDX. I am also seeing a fair amount of negative divergences in most indexes. So still, we are waiting for confirmation that the bear has returned...

Mutual Fund Cash Levels Do Not Support this Rally

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/mutual-fund-cash-levels-do-not-support-this-rally-37217

This is not a short term timing tool, but does suggest we are much nearer the end of this rally then the beginning...

$NDX Micro charts

Right now the $NDX looks like a breakout is occuring, although one good down day could negate this. The bears best shot comes with the $SPX charts, where major trendlines are being hit right about now. If the $SPX swooned it would bring the other indexes back down with it. That said, it's all speculation. It will be puzzling if the $NDX shrugs off two overlapping nodes and an important trendline. If it can do that, and the $SPX continues up as well, then we have a pretty damn strong market here. The sentiment figures show lots of complacency here.. I wouldn't think anyone would get too involved with this market at this point. The $SPX has a P/E ratio of 151! Kind of scary...

$SPX charts Micro and Macro

Is the US Goverment Preparing the Lifeboats for the Next Financial Disaster?

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/01/is-us-goverment-preparing-lifeboats-for.html

What if they denied you access to the money in your 'safe' money market funds? Wouldn't that torque you off?

Mish Shedlock - Reflections On Market Sentiment

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/01/reflections-on-market-sentiment.html

I've added the 'Chart of the day' to the bottom of the blog...

We'll see how it performs, if it steadily gives good info, I'll leave it there...

Charts will be updated after Monday's action...

We need more data to verify what's next...

USD collapse 2012 and the end of the world as we know it

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/laird/2009/1229.html

Another great article by Mike Shedlock - congress sets up another 4 trillion bank giveaway

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/12/congressional-legislation-introduced-by.html

So once passed, the Stock Market can be safely 'imploded' again, right?

Look out below....

Autumn of the Republic?

http://www.truthout.org/1227091

The most recent 50 visitors, where are they from?

If I wanted to pay for the privilege, I can plot the most recent 1000, which makes a denser map, but this is O.K., kind of fun....Some big cities have more than one of my readers represented here...On slow days I sometimes check this a few times a day and watch the patterns change.....

I saw the film 'AVATAR' last night...dazzling...must see...

I highly recommend this film. The special effects are amazing, but the story is very appropriate, speaking to the issues of Empire, and the effect it has on people both within it and outside of it. I don't want to give you a dry review, and I will say to you, it will tug at your soul in a very unique way. You must see this...you owe it to yourself...

Market Surprise for 2010?

http://www.howestreet.com/articles/index.php?article_id=11976

Everything that can be said about the truth....

http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/geo/pastanalysis/2009/1218.html

The coming fierce political infighting among Elites...

Note that the author lays the groundwork for this conclusion in the unavoidable decline in tax revenues one would expect when you bring on a whole slew of new taxes in the midst of an economic decline. This is already what we're seeing in discussions occurring from the national level, to the state and city/county levels. With tax levels falling, from both voluntary and involuntary withdrawal of players from an out of control, unfair economic/political system, the Elites and other 'protected' groups begin to 'go after' and cannibalize each other's revenue streams....

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogdec09/2010trends12-09.html

John Williams explains the risk of hyperinflation.

http://www.fairfieldweekly.com/article.cfm?aid=16014

More detailed market discussion...

http://www.thebullbear.com/profiles/blogs/a-couple-of-exponential-nodes

Debt clock ...

Forwarded to me by Bill Stockwell...very neat...

His comments:

Amounts are continually updated.
When you first look at the website, it is rather overwhelming,
but as you scroll across the screen, many of the numbers
represented there are referenced in the investment and news articles.

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

It's amazing how sanguine we've become about how these numbers are rolling up and increasing....

A couple of nodes overlapping on Monday, the 28th of December...

Looking at the bottom chart we have a set of overlapping nodes ( a .5000 and a 1.000) on December 28th relative to the A-B-C patterns I have labeled. This is only occurring on the $NDX, nothing similar is happening on the $SPX. The $NDX chart (the one in the middle), though is more interesting anyway, as it looks like that index is attempting a breakout through the trendline that has contained it. Where it stands at the moment, it has not yet achieved a confirmed breakout, as that happens only after a little more penetration then what's shown here. So the stage is possibly set for a resolution of the question of what's happening next. If the market doesn't reverse on Monday or perhaps Tuesday, we're probably going quite a bit higher for sure, but if it does reverse, then the existing trendline and the combined .5000 and 1.000 nodes would presumably been active, and the Bearish case will come to the fore. Remember also that the $SPX has been, and is still under, a Bearish warning state for quite a while now...Now we wait and see how it resolves....

Bankruptcy and Fiscal Collapse,Global Economic Crisis Tipping Point Forecast for Spring 2010

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article15931.html

While You Were Sleeping… The Economy Collapsed

http://neithercorp.us/npress/?p=209

Hitting the roof again...

The $NDX is still bouncing along the underside of this light green ascending trendline...

The Most Dangerous Thoughts ever produced by Man....

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5122859998068380459#

What kind of intellectual quest could drive four of the greatest thinkers of the last 100 years (in mathematics and philosophy) to obsession, then madness, and then finally premature death (suicide)? What does the consequences of their quest, tell us about mathematics, logic, certainty, and what it means to be a human being?


Extraordinary documentary by the BBC....

The Fed Slipped Up Big Time: Deflation Coming

http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2009/12/the-fed-slipped-up-big-time-deflation-coming.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+PlanetYelnick+%28Planet+Yelnick%29

A site that shows a different side to the Global Warming debate..

http://www.epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Minority.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=10fe77b0-802a-23ad-4df1-fc38ed4f85e3

Markets going sideways....

Martin Weiss points out that tax considerations might keep sellers on the sidelines until after Jan. 1

Discover Card Survey: Christmas Spending to Fall 15%

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/12/discover-card-survey-christmas-spending-to-fall-15.html

Mish Shedlock reports:

Cap-and-Trade Carbon Credit Extortion Scam In Full Swing

Missouri Billboard Warns Washington: Prepare for War

http://gatewaypundit.firstthings.com/2009/12/missouri-billboard-warns-washington-prepare-for-war/

$SPX and $NDX Macro Trendlines.

The $NDX chart at the top shows the current price action 'skewered' like a shish-ka-bob on one of the trendlines (dark green, upsloping)...it's really the microtrendlines I have been showing in previous posts that seems to be controlling the upside on this index. The $SPX, on the other hand, is topside limited by it's 'macro', longer time derived trendlines, and you can see it's still reasonably close to one of it's .500 nodes (center image). We're still under a 'Bearish warning' condition, and all the more so with the dollar strengthening...

US OPENLY ACCEPTS BIN LADEN LONG DEAD

http://www.veteranstoday.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=9641

Question: How do you know when our 'leaders' are lying?

Answer: When their lips are moving.

It's looking more and more like the bottom is in on the dollar...

Expect many implosions now through the first quarter of 2010.

Macro trendlines will be shown tomorrow....

A small bounce yesterday off of the lower trendline of the $SPX...

Which takes the $NDX up back up to it's over-head trendline...Monotonous...Boring... We need the dollar rally to get legs, so we can break this endless pattern...

Dollar rally continues...markets weaken...

Notice that on the Microtrendlines chart, the $NDX did manage to strike the trendline (barely), but has formed a small double top...

A time to be alert...If the dollar rally gets real legs, the markets will crumble...

I've been anticipating this for about 3 months, but we still need verification....all eyes on the dollar...


I've added the $SPX Microtrendlines chart and show it's current decline, just starting, has already about hit the supporting trendline. So we are at an interesting juncture, the $NDX has strong resistance overhead, and the $SPX has strong support just beneath. I doubt these two markets will diverge sharply, or for very long, so the next few days may end the gridlock as one index, or the other, has to break through it's current controlling trendline. Since complacency is fairly high, and risk tolerance is waning, I still vote for 'down' as the direction this will go....

Tea Party tops GOP on Three-Way Generic Ballot

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/december_2009/tea_party_tops_gop_on_three_way_generic_ballot

Suggests that a sea change in public opinion is under way, and that Republicans may benefit only marginally from Obama's poor performance. I would guess that some Democrats will eventually be disenchanted with Obama as the recovery devolves into another crisis. It's not clear that 'ideologically' they will join the independents and conservatives, however...

A little negative divergence starting to show up...

But no point in getting excited...yet..Many commentators are becoming whipsawed trying to divine some sense out of the dollar's one day wonder on Friday, and the hard core Elliott Wavers are trying to interpret every little squiggle in the indexes, of which there have been many over the past three months, with very little resolution as to trend. This is very much a waiting game now, there are some divergences, we'll just have to see how they play out.

Updated $NDX microtrendlines.

Still showing what looks to me like potential weakness as trendline is approached...

Ben Bernanke’s Hyperinflation And Economic Collapse

http://usawatchdog.com/ben-bernanke%E2%80%99s-hyperinflation-and-economic-collapse/

Today's down day was interesting...

But what we'll look for is whether we have follow through tomorrow...notice that unlike the previous hits of the green trendline, this failure of the $NDX was a lighter strike. Weakness?

Macro $SPX charts

The $SPX is still contained by at least one trendline (light brown) although it should be noted that this is a rising trendline...which is why the market has been able to churn slightly higher. Reversals can still take place off of rising trendlines though. The current node value is .51693, still not too far from a perfect .50000. Since .51693/.50000 = 1.03386, we are then 3.386% away from ideal, still not badly off. We are not out of range of this node generally until we have reached about .53000 or so....

The bankruptcy of the United States is now certain

http://www.thedailycrux.com/content/3455/Porter_Stansberry

Excerpt:

When governments go bankrupt it's called "a default." Currency speculators figured out how to accurately predict when a country would default. Two well-known economists - Alan Greenspan and Pablo Guidotti - published the secret formula in a 1999 academic paper. That's why the formula is called the Greenspan-Guidotti rule. The rule states: To avoid a default, countries should maintain hard currency reserves equal to at least 100% of their short-term foreign debt maturities. The world's largest money management firm, PIMCO, explains the rule this way: "The minimum benchmark of reserves equal to at least 100% of short-term external debt is known as the Greenspan-Guidotti rule. Greenspan-Guidotti is perhaps the single concept of reserve adequacy that has the most adherents and empirical support."

So how does America rank on the Greenspan-Guidotti scale? It's a guaranteed default.

Goldman Staff Packing Pistols to Defend Against Peasants

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/12/goldman-senior-staff-packing-pistols-to-defend-against-peasants.html

$SPX and $NDX microtrendlines...

I will be taking time off from tomarrow through the 1st of December for Thanksgiving Holiday...

After visiting family in Pennsylvania, I'll be back around the 1st or 2nd of December....

Fear and Loathing in Global Warming

http://yelnick.typepad.com/politick/2009/11/fear-and-loathing-in-global-warming.html

Mish again - Hackers Prove Global Warming Is A Scam

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/11/hackers-prove-global-warming-is-scam.html

The fingerprints of the likes of the Bilderberg Group are all over this...

Société Générale tells clients how to prepare for potential 'global collapse'

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6599281/Societe-Generale-tells-clients-how-to-prepare-for-global-collapse.html

Mike Shedlock reports - Ron Paul, Alan Grayson Audit The Fed Bill Approved In House Finance Committee

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/11/ron-paul-alan-grayson-audit-fed-bill.html

How about that? It Passed!