I have just run a linear regression on the two normal (as opposed to exponential) trendlines on this SPX chart. The data points I used as are as follows:
For the top line...
10/11/07 1576.090
10/31/07 1552.760
12/11/07 1523.570
12/26/07 1498.850
04/07/08 1386.740
For the bottom line...
08/16/07 1370.600
01/23/08 1270.050
03/17/08 1256.980
The linear extrapolation gives a crossover date of 2/02/09 at a target price of 1071.
That is not, of course, when and where it will end up, as wedges usually break well before their apex. The recent upward wedge that we are falling from now, was a rare bird, as it went all the way to the apex before breaking out (down). The normal breakout is in the vicinity of 38% from the end....
I will do the same math on the $ndx and "back" post it to the previous $ndx chart.
6 comments:
Mark,
Hello, and thanx
old john
Hi Mark
Sold 2/3 of shorts a few min ago
Lag, you must be playing real short time horizons..From a daily point of view, it looks like we could be going down for quite a few days, although on a intraday level it does look like some sort of bottom here...
Regards,
Mark L.
Hi Mark,
I´ve started out with Boris blog. Nowdays I check out yours as well several times per day. You see this downturn continue for a few more days.
Do you think we will tuch support around 1250? How soon?
Thanks &rgrds
Istvan
Hi cezarfi,
Yes I see us heading back near the previous bottoms..I am working on the projections for that, as the wedge shown in "normal" time (rather than exponential) will let us hit a lower low than before, but not by a lot...
Regards,
Mark L.
Hi Mark,
Thank you.
Hopper
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