Monday, June 21, 2010

How well did my predictions from last Monday work out?

Well, my first attempt to model a bear market rally wasn't too bad...

Here's the set of three models as a screenshot from last Monday evening:

In that post, I ruled out the last model as having already passed by inconclusively, and placed my bets on the middle model...Assuming today was the top, it came in at 1131.23 on 6/21, which means the first model was the closest to what actually happened...


Anonymous said...

Appears my earlier attempt to post didn't stick.

I would say your work is an outstanding achievement in technical analysis. It predicted a trend line "overshoot" without knowing what would cause the overshoot. In other words, the line was perfectly placed.

FWIW, I've seen and experienced the phenomena on option ex day with various individual equities. The longs (aka daBoyz as some call "them") won the sweepstakes on Friday. Now, they've got shares to get rid of. Seize a news event, in this case the Yuan, spin that event as positive, run a thinly traded after- and pre market trade up, panic some shorts, sell the newly acquired shares into the short covering. And then, finish up by going short themselves.

It's possible they might be able to squeeze harder and extend this trend line break a little longer / further...but, my guess is, daBoyz will start eyeballing one another (if they haven't already) as no one wants to be the last one to leave the room.

We'll see.

regards and congrats,

mlytle said...

Hi Anonymous,
Thanks for the Kudos...This little blog I have in fairly novel, and so unusual in it's methods, that many don't see what I'm doing. So it's nice when some that come by notice what I'm doing, it makes it all worthwhile...
Of course, the regulars that comes by here are in a class by themselves also...
a very clever group...esoteric..

Again, thanks for the participation and feedback..