The Imminent Crash Of The Oil Supply

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article18948.html

Excerpt:

The world was completely transformed by oil for the duration of the twentieth century, but if the graph is right, within 20 years it will be virtually gone but our dependence upon it will not. Instead, we have:

• zero time to plan how to replace cars in our lives
• zero time to plan how to manufacture and install millions of furnaces to replace home oil furnaces, and zero time toproduce the infrastructure necessary to carry out that task
• zero time to retool suburbia so it can function without gasoline
• zero time to plan for replacement of the largest military establishment in history, almost completely dependent upon oil
• zero time to plan to support nine billion peolple without the "green revolution," a creation of the age of oil
• zero time to plan to replace oil as an essential fuel in electricity production
• zero time to plan for preserving millions of miles of roads without asphalt.
• zero time to plan for the replacement of oil in its essential role in EVERY industry.
• zero time to plan for replacement of oil in its exclusive role of transporting people, agricultural produce, manufactured goods. In a world without oil that appears only twenty years away, there will be no oil-burning ships transporting US grain to other countries, there will be no oil-burning airlines linking the world's major cities, there will be no oil-burning ships transporting Chinese manufactured goods to the billions now dependent on them.
• zero time to plan for the survival of the billions of new people expected by 2050 in the aftermath of ":peak everything."
• zero capital, because of failing banks ansd public and private debt, to address these issues.

Barcharts Output - $SPX

Here I am playing with the $SPX monthly charts, and noting the bottom indicator StochRSI. Both of the major tops were preceded by divergences in this indicator which I have marked with brown arrows at the bottom of the chart. The points in time where this indicator was maxed out against the top value and pulled away I have marked with thick Black lines, see what happened afterwards...The chart at this point looks Bullish actually, no divergences present...I welcome your comments...

What seems reasonable to me is that we might see a correction, sufficient to relieve the overbought pressure (which could happen anytime), and then a resumption of the upside...I've been generally skeptical of this rally for a while, but there doesn't seem to be any internal weaknesses or divergence, just some overbought conditions such as is seen in young bull markets...

Another look at Monthly Bollinger Bands: QQQQ and IWM

Note that Barcharts might calculate their charts slightly differently then Bigcharts, but theirs are also updated pretty fast, Bigcharts waits until after midnight to update their weekly and monthly charts...

Anyway here are the monthly Bollinger Bands for QQQQ and ILM (proxy for the Russell 2000):

Rather looks like the Russell is already in it's bands and the Nasdaq 100 is close...So if we're in a mania, it may push these wider, if it's supposed to stop it should be real soon...

Something is changing...

I am thinking as of this afternoon that most trendlines are being exceeded, some by quite a bit...I think this is still a FED powered rally, and all normal limits are being pushed through.. Today had rather high volume, reversing the trend of late towards low volume...so the Bear is maybe dying here unless something changes early next week..Note above, the big spike in volume and the associated CMF indicator (green)..

Note in the Bigcharts chart above, only the monthly Bollinger Bands stands in front of the $RUT's march upward...that might stop it in conjunction with the trendlines I posted earlier, but the volume stats right now don't look encouraging for the Bears...

Lastly in the charts below, I have shown how the recent spike in the $NDX looks, based on the regression of past highs. Are we seeing a parabolic blowoff that's near it's end, or just the superseding of existing exponential trendlines by a mania that has no defined boundaries? Right now truthfully, I'm not sure..

Russell 2000 Microtrendlines

Note the important trendlines for the moment are in magenta....We are at a place you might expect a top...provided it stops rising much past the trendline, of course..

Peak Energy - What links the banking crisis and the volcano ?

http://peakenergy.blogspot.com/2010/04/what-links-banking-crisis-and-volcano.html

A few interesting comments about the airline industry...

Letter from Iceland....

http://www.howestreet.com/articles/index.php?article_id=13138

Very Good!

It still doesn't look real safe to short this thing...

At least, not yet...See what the next couple of days brings...Need to see a pullback begin in earnest..

Top being retested..

It looks like the recent top is being retested about now...I note that Charles Nenner is still somewhat bullish in his models..I can't address that directly, although I do respect that he's an analyst held in high esteem...He seems to feel a short term correction is in the works...we'll see...The wave pattern he's suggesting seems rather unnatural in certain respects, but I try to keep an open mind...

Want to know why U.S. Lawmakers don't care what happens to our country?

Jailed Whistleblower: US Lawmakers Held Offshore UBS Accounts

http://www.democracynow.org/2010/4/16/ubs


So I guess they can get out of dodge before everything collapses, and their money is safe...how tidy..

naked capitalism - Was Greece Rescue Futile, and is Portugal Next?

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/04/was-greece-rescue-futile-and-is-portugal-next.html

For the world economy, the dominoes keep alignin'...

Microtrendlines, $SPX and $NDX

Look at the amazing 'overthrow' of the $NDX chart...a real mania..

Naked Capatalism - Goldman Sacked?

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/04/guest-post-goldman-sacked.html

Aside from the probable market top reached last week, this is THE news...

Nice downleg seems to be starting here...

It's got some good volume, too...

Another sign of 'The Top' - Goldman Sachs sued by SEC for Fraud!

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/04/sec-sues-goldman-for-fraud.html

Let's see if anyone goes to jail, though...So far, the Banksters have been immune...This is a civil, not criminal case...There needs to be criminal charges, because that's what they are...

The moment of truth...

The upper black, down-sloping channel line (now calculated to be at 1210.46) has now been reached and slightly exceeded, at a high of 1213.92. If this upper trendline channel works, this rally should be over...I suppose it could go sideways for a few days, tops are notorious for doing that, but the overall position should be that the bull run from the March 2009 lows is over...

Again, as always, we wait for the market to give us confirmation...

Recent Visitors by Location...

Wow!

I don't think I've ever seen both of these sentiment measures so extreme at the same time...Most indexes have also exceeded their daily Bollinger Bands by a good bit, as well. Tomorrow might see a slightly higher high and then a reversal...that's my guess...

This chart is from Sentimentrader.com...

I think we are in the final punch of this rally...sit tight...

I can't say the top is today...but you can compare (on the $NDX) this moment on the graph below with all of the previous ones..it looks like an overthrow...Compare with the previous post (yesterday) and the penetration below the zero line is getting fairly extreme...I wouldn't think you have many days of that ahead, and possibly, it actually finishes up today...we'll see...

Again, how close is the top? Close.

Whenever the blue line passes above the red line in the top chart, the 'local' top should be in, and I believe that will turn into something bigger than that, after it gets going...Note the '?' I have put on the chart. Close though it is, it hasn't happened yet. Wait....

(Click to enlarge)

April 2010 - US military warns oil output may dip causing massive shortages by 2015

http://peakenergy.blogspot.com/2010/04/us-military-warns-oil-output-may-dip.html

Here comes Peak Oil.....

Market Recap: When VXN Opened and Closed Below BB Bottom

http://www.safehaven.com/article/16405/market-recap-when-vxn-opened-and-closed-below-bb-bottom

This seems to corroborate the previous post...We are at or near the top...Still, wait for confirmation before doing anything...

A possible $SPX Exponential channel...

This is a test, this is only a test....The exponential theory I have been developing doesn't exclude channels, but also doesn't explicitly create them....Look at the chart at the top of this post, here I found an exponential trendline (green) that defined the March 2009 bottom. By adding a set amount to it, I created the parallel black trendline that defines the tops here. Visually, it seems to look right, but we have to wait and see if the market turns around as it tickles the bottom of that black trendline. If it works, then we have identified a channel that maybe can help us find very important bottoms and tops well into the future, as channels do tend to persist in time...On ordinary $SPX charts that others use, these features will not be apparent or visible at all...Note how the conventional channel in the bottom conventional chart, (courtesy of Bigcharts) compares....Both charts cover the exact same time periods....

(Click on the charts above to enlarge them)

How close are we to the top?

Close, but not quite there....as you can see...usually the regression line is breached slightly before price turns down, and this hasn't happened yet...

Guest Post: Bank of International Settlements’ Tough Assessments Don’t Bode Well for World Economy

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/04/guest-post-bis-says-debt-crisis-caused-by-incompetent-governments-failing-to-save-during-boom-times-or-planning-for-aging-populations-or-contingent-liabilities.html

This agrees with my feelings that the West will never fully recover from this time of trial, or that recovery would be, at best, generations off...

Not there yet...

It's too soon yet to aggressively short this thing..not below the trendlines yet...

Islamic Banking: Is It Really Kosher?

http://www.american.com/archive/2007/march-april-magazine-contents/islamic-banking-is-it-really-kosher/

I am doing a rough overview of how banking rules differ from one civilization to another. I am curious to see if the corrupting influence of western banking is universal...

Check out also this Wikipedia link:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_banking

interesting...Would these Islamic practices prevent collusion between big Islamic institutions to commit fraud on the scale of American or Western Banks? I am reading this new myself, and if you all have comments or insights please post them. I am not championing Muslim anything per se, but it's worthwhile to see if other cultures really have usable ideas...

Getting interesting out there...

I will wait for both of these price patterns to go below all trendlines in both charts before adding short positions (it's a safety thing, and my recommendation), but I suspect the turn is happening now...

Sentiment...

This level is a rare reading, on the long term sentiment (bar on the right)...

CHARLES NENNER’S HIGH CONVICTION TRENDS, TRADES: 2010-11

Bill Stockwell sent me this link, quite fascinating....

http://fxmarketanalysis.wordpress.com/2010/04/03/charles-nenner%e2%80%99s-high-conviction-trends-trades-2010-11-investor%e2%80%99s-roadmap/

This gives an approximate roadmap through 2011...

Two signposts & Stealth Run by Jim Willie

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/willie/2010/0406.html

More Ponzi scheme reporting...very good...

The Urge to Save Humanity is Almost Always a False Front For the Urge to Rule

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article18401.html

“For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong.”
H.L. Mencken

Max and Stacy again...they're amazing...

http://ia361309.us.archive.org/12/items/MaxKeiserRadio-TheTruthAboutMarkets-03April2010/tam030410.mp3

Why it is that in the near future, movies will be announced but never produced, but studios and traders will make hundreds of millions on them anyway....and why in the future celebrities will be prevented by the SEC to speak out on political issues...and why Iron Ore will join the commodities whose price isn't reflected by supply and demand, it will only reflect trading activities in derivatives focused on the Iron market...and more, and more...

Jump in interest rates close...

Bill Stockwell has come up with this chart showing a 'ripe' ascending wedge in interest rates on the ten year note. His interpretation is a jump in inflation, which could be, although it could just as well be deflation...all we know is interest rates are ready to jump, as these formations 'pop' rather fast...

Diminishing Marginal Productivity of Debt

http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2010/03/most-important-chart-of-century.html

America Now enforces Capital Controls

Found by Young Grasshopper...

Three days ago over at zerohedge.com, they ran a story titled “It’s Official – America Now Enforces Capital Controls.” Here’s the story’s lead-in:

" It couldn't have happened to a nicer country. On March 18, with very little pomp and circumstance, President Obama passed the most recent stimulus act, the $17.5 billion Hiring Incentives to Restore Employment Act (H.R. 2487), brilliantly goalseeked by the administration's millionaire cronies to abbreviate as HIRE. As it was merely the latest in an endless stream of acts destined to expand the government payroll to infinity, nobody cared about it, or actually read it. Because if anyone had read it, the act would have been known as the Capital Controls Act, as one of the lesser, but infinitely more important provisions on page 27, known as Offset Provisions - Subtitle A – Foreign Account Tax Compliance, institutes just that. In brief, the Provision requires that foreign banks not only withhold 30% of all outgoing capital flows (likely remitting the collection promptly back to the U.S. Treasury), but also disclose the full details of non-exempt account-holders to the U.S. and the IRS. And should this provision be deemed illegal by a given foreign nation's domestic laws (think Switzerland), well the foreign financial institution is required to close the account. It's the law. If you thought you could move your capital to the non-sequestration safety of non-U.S. financial institutions, sorry you lose – the law now says so. Capital Controls are now here and are now fully enforced by the law. "

After reading through the “Hiring Incentives to Restore Employment Act,” which is actually H.R. 2847, not H.R. 2487 as indicated above, the assessment by zerohedge.com appears to be accurate. Sure there are those who will say that this bill is about “cutting down on tax evasion” not “capital controls,” but I think that’s naïve. Even so, I encourage you to read the entire piece by zerohedge.com (link here) and all 48 pages of the HIRE Act (link here) so you can decide for yourself

A little on the dollar...

One of my blog readers was asking about the dollar. I have tended to avoid dealing with it lately because it's not merely a technical issue, but political as well, and charts don't always reveal political moves before they happen...

That said, in spite of the fact that it has recently been stopped in it's advance by one of the major rising trendlines, I think it's tracing out a big A-B-C pattern...Most moves don't stop until they hit one of the .500 nodes and we're quite a ways in time from one of those..So I put the C wave where it might end up...


I think we're in deflation, overall, until the sovereign debt crisis explodes, and we end up devaluing. The timing is tricky here, and if we enter the debt crisis earlier rather than later, it could change my overall bullish bias for the dollar, and keep commodities moving higher in spite of weak demand...

Trendlines again...

They seem to be hanging there, but there's always a bullish bias just before a holiday...

Longer range view of $RUT trendline in previous post..

$SPX and $RUT struggle with trendlines...

On both, you can see that today (so far), the span between the highs and lows has narrowed...

PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS says good-bye...

Truth Has Fallen and Taken Liberty With It

http://www.counterpunch.org/roberts03242010.html

Some one or some thing has gotten to him...He was outspoken for years...

KUHNER: Will America break up?

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/mar/25/will-america-break-up/

Sultans of Swap - Act 3

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/gtlong/2010/0326.html

Max Keiser report...

http://ia331224.us.archive.org/2/items/MaxKeiserRadio-TheTruthAboutMarkets-27March2010/tam270310.mp3


Want to know the future?...listen to Max's report...No one can see ahead like this guy....I'm serious....

Playing with exponential trendlines...

You might note the long range $SPX trendline chart about 3 or 4 posts back. The downward sloping trendline on that chart that is magenta colored, I have plotted on a small graph with the recent trendline from the MicrotrendlineSPX chart..Those of you who follow me regularly will be familiar with the charts I am referencing...Anyway, with the highs and lows of the $SPX added, you can see how this index is reacting near the point of the crossover of the very long term based exponential trendline with the microtrendline from the 2007-2002 decline. All data is up to date as of 4:00 P.M. today (Friday). The bumpiness of the trendlines is caused mostly by weekends where the previous Friday's data is reposted on Saturday and Sunday....

Yelnick - Did ObamaCare Spook the Bond Market?

http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2010/03/did-obamacare-spook-the-bond-market.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+PlanetYelnick+%28Planet+Yelnick%29

also:

Mish Shedlock - Treasury Yields rise; What's Cooking?

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

Some experimental work by Hopper...

One of my new oscillators is the pdf that is attached. It looks at differences in RSI of MFI.
It doesn't seem to work well as a trading tool, but looking at this picture, one can spot a new high recently...
This could infer a breakout of a new trend.
So, yes I am shorting now, but that is only for a short to intermediate term.
The longer term may be more up...

Cheers,
Hopper

Long range trendlines on the $SPX...

More signs of resistance...

An unexpected result...

A while back, I published this chart before we had a breakout of the symmetrical triangle. I was expecting the triangle to break out to the upside, as I presumed that Britain was in more trouble than the U.S. This chart almost suggests the opposite...

Then today I found this:

U.S. Is Riskier Than Euro Zone; So Says CDS Market

link:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703312504575142112712294450.html?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines


The article is warning that something deep is being revealed, that we need to be wary now..

Both the article and the chart are in agreement that something is going really rotten in the state of Denmark, er..the U.S., rather...

One step toward the end of the Bull run...

Now we need a decline below the Microtrendlines by a percent or so...and it's soup...

MicroTrendline Charts

Bears, keep your powder dry, don't pull the trigger on too many short positions until price action ducks back below these lines...The December 28th, double nodes took 13 trading days to resolve into a top on 1/15/10, the 3/11/10 nodes could take almost as long, so patience is required...

So, Who Is spinning - Boris Chikvashvili

http://borisc.blogspot.com/2010/03/so-who-is-spinning.html

Showdown in Europe

This is an excellent analysis by Boris Chikvashvili, who has a very interesting and successful market analysis method of his own. You should all check out his site:

http://borisc.blogspot.com/

By the way, he sees an immanent drop here also..

Slight rally in the markets today...

Only the $NDX made a marginal new high, all of the other indexes failed to do that, most appear to have been rolling over near the close...

The $SPX stayed under it's trendline and showed negative divergence implying further weakness. The $NDX today bounced off of it's trendline, but showed weakness into the close. The general trend of advance-declines is of increasing weakness as charted here yesterday...so we will see what happens tomorrow...

Underlying weakness in equities markets suggests little upside from here...

Note the vertical red lines where the two exponential nodes presaged declines in the Nasdaq 100 McClellan Oscillator (symbol: $NAMO). This wasn't planned, but the nodes line up well with two recent peaks in this indicator.

Note that the MACD crossover of the 'zero line' of the McClellan Oscillator (at the top of the chart) often corresponded with peaks in the $NDX. I have highlighted some of these events with vertical magenta, dashed lines. Looking at the current MACD, a similar crossover should occur early next week.

I do see the MACD of hourly market action does suggest a bounce on Monday. However the Advance/Declines ratio, smoothed by a 40 day moving average (core process in computing the McClellan Oscillator) is showing that the underlying strength in the markets is ebbing away, quickly. Therefore the bounce should be contained by existing exponential trendlines, as they have been in the recent past:

Just to add, the McClellan Oscillator for the $NYSE (symbol: $NYMO) is showing the same pattern...

It Was a Wonderful Life.- James Quinn

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article18000.html

We had the choice between Bedford Falls and Pottersville.
We chose Pottersville....- Quinn

A beautiful article- it appeals to the heart as much as it does to the mind...

Sultans of Swap - ACT II - The Sting!

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/gtlong/2010/0319.html

A lot of meat here....

Market had a reasonable decline today...

On which ever day, that the $NDX goes below it's exponential trendline, we will have a sell signal...A better and safer one will be when we go about as far below that trendline as we shot above it...When that happens I will report it here that evening...

That will probably be early next week...



Can you spot all of the factors above, that makes a 'top' probable here? (Click on the chart to enlarge)

The 'green mountains' on this chart, are a price-volume oscillator (CMF). When it diverges rapidly with price action, it's a good tool for timing...

Microtrendline charts updated below...

http://marketmathematics.blogspot.com/2010/03/microtrendlines-updated-1000-am-cst.html

Market Risk high again..

http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2010/03/2007-redux.html

Quote from above link:

The market value of the high yield FINRA-BLP Active U.S. Corporate Bond Index relative to its investment grade counterpart has now exceeded the level seen in May 2007, at the peak of the credit bubble.

If you ask me, it looks like risk-taking is back with a vengeance.

Current Put_Call ratios, 10 day moving average

These values are now more extreme then they were in late 2007...

What will a sell signal be for the markets?

You can see that the $SPX (top chart) has already risen above and fallen below it's exponential trendline...The $NDX needs to do the same (that is, fall below the line), then you have a 'sell' signal overall...

To be really safe you would like to see some real volume associated with the selling, and a good entry point (for a short fund) might be when the $NDX goes as far below the line as it went above it. Currently, that would mean waiting until it fell below the bottom on Monday, below 1900 or so...

Look at the Microtrendline charts below (a couple of posts back)..they have been updated

The $SPX is starting to hit it's old exponential support from underneath...This is technically interesting because, this is a first documented occurrence using exponential trendlines...

This is important, because in conventional technical analysis, this usually stops the rally from the first important decline from reaffirming the prior Bull trend...get my drift?

We'll see if it works the same way in this situation...