Sunday, July 11, 2010

An ambiguous moment.

As you all know, I've closed my long positions (which were in the Russell 2000) as I saw indicators and chart patterns that looked like the end of a trend. It still looks that way to me, but I also can't quite find the justification to go short yet. The $SPX is near the top of it's big down-trending channel, not at the top of it, but close enough to question the risk of staying in as a 'long' trade. The Russell 2000 is somewhat different. It looks 'only' about halfway up, and though it is stalling at a trendline, the main resistance is pretty high above it. I have also realized over the last couple of swings that these micro channels I have discovered, and profitably utilized, have a front and a back. On both indexes we may be seeing the breakdown at the front of the channel, but these are uncommonly wide channels, which means it could take quite a few days to cross them, even if the market remains more or less flat. With a slight rise, say, after a minor correction, it could take even longer to cross the channel, which would result in a reasonably higher market, even though the big rise had already expended itself. Thus my caution at going short.

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